Regular-season winner
SAV 20-8
Savigny closed 5-1 and finished one game clear of Rouen.
/ France D1 regular-season roundup · 30 August 2026 · Updated 31 August
Savigny won the regular season, while Rouen finished strongest.
Eight clubs, 112 official decisions, and a forecast that got the shape of the race right.
Savigny finished first through balance. Rouen turned the league's most powerful run profile into a perfect 6-0 close. La Rochelle took third ahead of Montpellier on the head-to-head tie-break, setting Savigny-Montpellier and Rouen-La Rochelle semifinals.
Strongest run profile
ROU +93
Runs scored and allowed translated to 21.85 wins.
Closing favorites
18 / 22
StatPredict's saved July favorites won 81.8% of the closing games.
Final Four field
4 / 4
The model's leading four-team scenario became the exact qualified field.
/ Season in one view
The table, the run profile, and the forecast receipt
Official wins answer who finished where. Run-based expectation and the saved July forecast show how each club arrived there.
Official vs run-based wins
Based on runs scored and allowed, Rouen's +93 differential translated to 21.85 wins. That is the clearest sign that second place understated the Huskies' full-season control.
July forecast vs final wins
The probability-weighted July forecast missed the average club by 1.03 wins. Rouen was the only team more than two wins from its projection.
Four qualifiers, four profiles
Right is better offense; higher is better run prevention. Dashed lines mark the .375 league wOBA and 5.04 league FIP baselines.
/ Final table
Savigny held first. Rouen moved from fourth to second.
The closing stretch begins after the July 28 forecast. July projected rank and wins use the saved probability distribution, not hindsight.
| Team | Final | Run diff | Run-based wins | Closing | July projected wins | July projected rank | July Final Four |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Savigny-sur-Orge Lions #1 · SAV | 20-8 | +66 | 18.89 | 5-1 | 18.8 | #1 | 99.7% |
Rouen Huskies #2 · ROU | 19-9 | +93 | 21.85 | 6-0 | 16.4 | #4 | 82.4% |
La Rochelle Boucaniers #3 · LAR | 17-11 | +17 | 15.43 | 2-2 | 17.2 | #3 | 96.4% |
Montpellier Barracudas #4 · MTP | 17-11 | +35 | 16.14 | 2-4 | 18.5 | #2 | 99.5% |
 Sénart Templiers #5 · SEN | 14-14 | +6 | 14.50 | 2-4 | 15.1 | #5 | 21.3% |
 Stade Toulousain Tigers #6 · TOU | 11-17 | -67 | 8.83 | 1-5 | 12.4 | #6 | 0.8% |
 Béziers Pirates #7 · BEZ | 9-19 | -52 | 10.24 | 2-2 | 8.7 | #7 | Outside race |
 Paris Université Club #8 · PUC | 5-23 | -98 | 7.47 | 2-4 | 4.9 | #8 | Outside race |
La Rochelle takes third on the head-to-head tie-break. Both clubs finished 17-11 and split their four meetings 2-2, but La Rochelle outscored Montpellier 29-19. The next separator compares runs scored per attacking inning with runs allowed per defensive inning: +0.278 for La Rochelle, -0.278 for Montpellier. That head-to-head balance (TQB), not the full-season run differential, decides the order under FFBS Article 131.
Official standings include administrative decisions. Player performance uses the 110 games with actual box-score events, so unplayed decisions do not create fictional statistics.
/ Forecast audit
The model got the shape of the race right
Rouen and Montpellier traded the second and fourth places implied by July's forecast. The model got the four qualifiers right, but not their likeliest semifinal routes.
Exact qualifiers
4 / 4
Savigny, Montpellier, La Rochelle and Rouen occupied all four places in 77.9% of simulations.
Favorite accuracy
81.8%
Eighteen of 22 closing-game favorites won; only one upset was below a 30% pregame chance.
Record error
1.03
Average absolute final-record error in wins per club.
Exact positions
6 / 8
Savigny, La Rochelle and the full bottom half finished in the exact model-implied position.
Calibration check: the closing-game Brier score was 0.191 against 0.250 for a neutral 50-50 forecast. Lower is better.
The largest correction
Rouen turned 3.4 projected wins into six
The individual edges against La Rochelle, Montpellier and Sénart mostly sat between 54% and 58%. Rouen winning all six was roughly a 3% path, even though the model selected the Huskies in every game.
Probability read
PUC was an underdog 6 times and still landed exactly on 2 projected wins.
Reading only the favorite column calls those two wins surprises. Reading the full distribution shows that two was the central expectation.
/ Final Four field
Four qualifiers, four different ways to win
The regular season did not produce one universal contender profile. Balance, run control, offense and concentrated pitching each reached the bracket.
Savigny
First place through balance
Savigny did not lead every category. The Lions finished first because a .405 team wOBA and 4.08 staff FIP left no phase weak enough to control the season.
Carries forward
The best offense-pitching balance in the league and several credible ways to win one game.
Postseason question
The 20 wins slightly exceeded the 18.89 suggested by run differential, but not enough to make first place fragile.
Acuña .543 wOBA · Orozco 2.72 FIP · Peña +10.80 xRAA
Rouen
The strongest underlying season
Rouen's +93 run differential translated to 21.85 wins based on runs scored and allowed. The Huskies finished 2nd, but no team controlled the full-season run balance sharper.
Carries forward
A 6-0 close paired an improved .401 offense with the league's deepest run-prevention profile.
Postseason question
The postseason test is whether opponents can force Rouen away from the game states it controlled during the final month.
Harrison .471 wOBA · Taido 3.24 FIP · Mercadier 3.11
Montpellier
The best offense, the widest risk
Montpellier finished at .430 wOBA, 55 points above the league baseline. No other lineup matched its concentration of elite production.
Carries forward
A lineup deep enough to break open a short contest before an opponent reaches its preferred pitching plan.
Postseason question
A 5.81 staff FIP was the weakest among the qualifiers, and Montpellier closed 0-4 against Rouen and Savigny.
Brossier .560 wOBA · Doat .534 · Farina 6.95 PFI
La Rochelle
Qualification through concentrated value
La Rochelle reached 17 wins despite a +17 run differential and 15.43 wins expected from runs scored and allowed. The head-to-head tie-break placed the Boucaniers third ahead of Montpellier.
Carries forward
Paredes Sanchez and De La Rosa can compress a decisive game around high-value innings.
Postseason question
The margin narrows when the matchup reaches deeper into the staff or asks for repeated lower-order pressure.
Paredes 2.85 FIP · De La Rosa 7.16 PFI · Schechter .439 wOBA
/ Outside the bracket
The table position did not erase the useful pieces
Sénart's two-way profile, Toulouse's pitching, Béziers' individual ceiling and PUC's top contributors all remain visible beneath the final records.
Sénart
Better than fifth place reads
Sénart finished .500 with a .391 wOBA and 4.82 FIP, both better than league average. Administrative decisions widened the gap between event performance and the official table.
What worked
A genuine Final Four-level two-way profile beneath the fifth-place record.
Next question
A 2-4 close, including the 11-2 loss at Béziers, removed the separation needed for a late challenge.
Vera +11.39 xRAA · Do Carmo Barros .517 wOBA
Toulouse
Pitching without enough support
Toulouse protected more close results than its run profile expected, but a .336 team wOBA remained 39 points below league average.
What worked
Rojas Perez and Laot supplied above-average innings and a credible starting point on the mound.
Next question
The clearest route upward is more league-average lineup positions around Velazco and Soriano.
Rojas Perez 2.93 FIP · Laot +8.70 xRAA · Velazco .474 wOBA
Béziers
The PFI leader inside a seventh-place team
Adrian Meza led the league at 7.53 PFI across all 28 games. Béziers' .374 team wOBA was near average; run prevention was the larger constraint.
What worked
A credible offensive center and one high-volume above-average pitcher in Gonzalez Molero.
Next question
A 5.97 staff FIP left too many games dependent on the offense continuing to score.
Meza 7.53 PFI, .528 wOBA · Gonzalez Molero 3.93 FIP
PUC
The forecast center became the final record
PUC's July projection of 4.94 wins became a 5-23 official record. The late 2-4 finish showed why six underdog probabilities should not be read as six expected losses.
What worked
Reyes Acosta, Gonzalez and German provide meaningful high-level building blocks.
Next question
The .334 wOBA, 5.31 FIP and -98 official run differential point to usable depth as the central rebuild need.
Reyes Acosta 6.88 PFI · Gonzalez .460 wOBA · German +7.58 xRAA
/ Season leaders
Three leaderboards, three kinds of value
PFI measures repeated game influence, wOBA measures offensive event value, and xRAA estimates pitching runs prevented. None should be forced into one universal ranking.
Season PFI
Minimum 13 games to preserve representative season influence.
01
Adrian Meza
Béziers · 28 games
7.53 PFI
02
Anderson Vera
Sénart · 14 games
7.45 PFI
03
Franklin De La Rosa
La Rochelle · 14 games
7.16 PFI
04
Patrick Farina
Montpellier · 25 games
6.95 PFI
05
Luis Carlos Reyes Acosta
PUC · 18 games
6.88 PFI
Qualified offense
Weighted offensive rate and total runs created above average.
01
Paolo Brossier
Montpellier · +19.65 wRAA
.560 wOBA
02
Ivan Acuña
Savigny · +17.69 wRAA
.543 wOBA
03
Pierre Doat
Montpellier · +13.72 wRAA
.534 wOBA
04
Adrian Meza
Béziers · +18.48 wRAA
.528 wOBA
05
Gabriel Do Carmo Barros
Sénart · +14.20 wRAA
.517 wOBA
Pitching value
Accumulated prevention, workload and defense-independent quality.
01
Anderson Vera
Sénart · 83.1 IP · 3.81 FIP
+11.39 xRAA
02
Adrian Peña Pereira
Savigny · 92.1 IP · 3.98 FIP
+10.80 xRAA
03
Evertz Orozco Alvarado
Savigny · 40.2 IP · +10.47 xRAA
2.72 FIP
04
Yui Taido
Rouen · 49.1 IP · 3.24 FIP
+9.86 xRAA
05
Thibault Mercadier
Rouen · 42.0 IP · 3.11 FIP
+8.99 xRAA
/ Confirmed bracket
The July co-favorites now meet in a semifinal
This pairing structure appeared in 12.7% of July simulations, behind the 33.2% and 32.1% alternatives. The July title probabilities remain a benchmark, not updated odds for these fixed matchups.
Semifinal · 1 vs 4
Savigny
Montpellier
Savigny's two-way balance faces Montpellier's league-leading .430 wOBA. Only one of July's title co-favorites can advance.
Semifinal · 2 vs 3
Rouen
La Rochelle
Rouen's +93 run differential and improved offense meet La Rochelle's concentrated pitching value, led by Paredes Sanchez and De La Rosa.
The first seed faces the fourth and the second faces the third under D1 Article 6.2.
/ Related reports
Read the season from July forecast to final table
The final-month forecast is the direct audit comparison; the midseason and U21 reports provide the broader performance and roster context.
July 28 forecast
The final month of baseball in France
The saved qualification, seeding and title board against which the completed regular season is audited.
Midseason brief
The race before the separation
The June league-state read covering form, team context and the first shape of the qualification race.
France U21
D1 translated to a youth roster
The age audit and confidence-weighted U21 roster built from Division 1 performance and playing time.
France D1 season intelligence
Carry the full season into the Final Four
Statbase connects official outcomes, player impact, lineup quality and run prevention so clubs can move from a finished table to the decisions that shape the next game.
8 clubs
inside one complete league view
110 boxes
linked to player-level performance
28 games
across every club schedule