Teams at 14+ games
8
Every club has reached the practical half-mark.
/ FD1 / MIDSEASON BRIEF / 2026-06-08
FD1 midseason brief
The league is exactly at the half-mark in practical terms: all eight clubs have now reached at least 14 games, and the remaining regular-season slate is 54 games from June 13 through August 9.
Official sources: FFBS/WBSC schedule and box-score payloads, Statbase PFI game logs, roster-linked team power, and StatPredict v2.
Remaining games
54
The rest of the regular season runs from June 13 through August 9.
Weekend shape
1 sweep / 3 splits
Savigny was the only clean sweep; the other three series finished 1-1.
Current leader
La Rochelle
The Boucaniers lead the current win-percentage table at 9-5-0.
Model favorite
Savigny 57.9%
StatPredict v2 keeps the Lions at the top of the title board.
Key read
La Rochelle leads the current win-percentage table, but Savigny is the model favorite, and Rouen, Montpellier, and Sénart are still firmly live.
FD1 2026MidseasonPFI / PVIStatPredict v2France D1
MIDSEASON RECAP
Weekend shape and league-state read
The June 6-7 weekend produced one sweep and three splits. Savigny swept Sénart 2-0, while Montpellier/Rouen, Toulouse/La Rochelle, and PUC/Béziers split 1-1.
Halfway mark reached
All eight clubs have now reached at least 14 games, which makes the halfway read practical rather than ceremonial.
Title race stays open
StatPredict v2 sees a real title race, not a runaway. Savigny leads the model, but La Rochelle, Rouen, Montpellier, and Sénart remain live.
The weekend was spike-driven
The box logs show more individual surges than series dominance, so the player layer still explains the shape of the round.
Bottom-tier separation is real
Béziers still has useful player pockets, but PUC's structural gap is now too large to treat as a variance-only problem.
WEEKEND RECAP
Scoreboard and series view
A sweep plus three splits is the clean shorthand, but the scoreboard and series lines show how the leverage moved.
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | ROU at MTP | 0-3 | ROU |
| 2026-06-06 | SEN at SAV | 4-0 | SAV |
| 2026-06-06 | BEZ at PUC | 6-11 | BEZ |
| 2026-06-06 | LAR at TOU | 9-8 | TOU |
| 2026-06-07 | ROU at MTP | 12-2 | MTP |
| 2026-06-07 | LAR at TOU | 4-8 | LAR |
| 2026-06-07 | SEN at SAV | 9-8 | SAV |
| 2026-06-07 | BEZ at PUC | 11-6 | PUC |
Weekend read
The cleanest summary is that Savigny completed the only sweep, while the other three series kept the board tight at 1-1. That matters because it keeps the title picture probabilistic instead of binary.
Sweep
Savigny beat Sénart twice and finished the series with a 13-8 aggregate edge.
Splits
Montpellier/Rouen, Toulouse/La Rochelle, and PUC/Béziers each finished 1-1.
Series view
Series
Montpellier Barracudas vs Rouen Huskies
1-1 split, Montpellier Barracudas 12 - 5 Rouen Huskies
Series
Savigny-sur-Orge Lions vs Sénart Templiers
2-0 split, Savigny-sur-Orge Lions 13 - 8 Sénart Templiers
Series
Paris Université Club vs Béziers Pirates
1-1 split, Paris Université Club 17 - 17 Béziers Pirates
Series
Stade Toulousain Tigers vs La Rochelle Boucaniers
1-1 split, Stade Toulousain Tigers 13 - 16 La Rochelle Boucaniers
PFI STANDOUTS
Weekend spikes that actually moved the board
These were the highest-leverage one-game performances in the round.
| Player | Team | Game | Game PFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENA PEREIRA Adrian | SAV | 2026-06-06 4-0 | 10.00 |
| BAMBERGER Kylian | TOU | 2026-06-06 9-8 | 10.00 |
| CEGIELSKI Amaury | TOU | 2026-06-06 9-8 | 10.00 |
| BRIONES Esteban | LAR | 2026-06-07 8-4 | 10.00 |
| AMOROS Lilian | SAV | 2026-06-07 9-8 | 10.00 |
| RODRIGUEZ Douglas | SEN | 2026-06-07 8-9 | 10.00 |
| GONZALEZ Lorenzo | PUC | 2026-06-07 11-6 | 10.00 |
| MEZA Adrian | BEZ | 2026-06-06 11-6 | 9.88 |
| TAIDO Yui | ROU | 2026-06-06 3-0 | 9.56 |
| ESTEBAN Maxence | LAR | 2026-06-06 8-9 | 9.47 |
| MAYEUX Dylan | SEN | 2026-06-07 8-9 | 9.30 |
| BRIONES Esteban | LAR | 2026-06-06 8-9 | 9.15 |
Reading the spikes
Savigny's sweep was powered by Adrian Pena Pereira and a strong two-way contact base, while La Rochelle, Toulouse, PUC, and Béziers all produced elite one-game form even in split or losing situations.
SEASON SNAPSHOT
Current table
The team board now has enough volume to separate structural strength from short-window noise.
| Rank | Team | W-L-T | GP | RS/G | RA/G | RD/G | TPM | PFI | PVI | PVI cov. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | La Rochelle Boucaniers | 9-5-0 | 14 | 6.14 | 5.57 | +0.57 | 59 | 5.48 | 53.7 | 45% |
| #2 | Savigny-sur-Orge Lions | 10-5-1 | 16 | 7.56 | 5.50 | +2.06 | 59 | 5.37 | 57.9 | 40% |
| #3 | Montpellier Barracudas | 8-6-0 | 14 | 8.57 | 7.71 | +0.86 | 62 | 5.11 | 55.1 | 42% |
| #4 | Sénart Templiers | 8-5-1 | 14 | 5.50 | 5.29 | +0.21 | 59 | 5.16 | 51.1 | 40% |
| #5 | Rouen Huskies | 9-7-0 | 16 | 5.63 | 4.25 | +1.38 | 62 | 5.09 | 53.6 | 43% |
| #6 | Stade Toulousain Tigers | 7-7-0 | 14 | 5.50 | 5.93 | -0.43 | 61 | 4.90 | 53.1 | 39% |
| #7 | Béziers Pirates | 5-9-0 | 14 | 5.71 | 7.71 | -2.00 | 56 | 5.08 | 55.5 | 17% |
| #8 | Paris Université Club | 1-13-0 | 14 | 4.93 | 8.07 | -3.14 | 58 | 5.03 | 52.5 | 0% |
Savigny
The Lions are the cleanest power profile: best team PVI, the league's strongest current run-differential pace, and the highest first-place odds in the model.
Montpellier
The Barracudas are the loudest offense in the group, but the prevention side is still the warning light. They can outscore anyone, and also trade innings with anyone.
Rouen
Rouen's run prevention and pitch-depth profile remain top-tier, which is why the Huskies still project as a title threat even without the cleanest offensive shape.
La Rochelle and Sénart
These clubs sit in the middle band where the player layer matters most. Their PFI boards can swing a weekend, and the schedule is still soft enough for them to climb.
Béziers and PUC
Béziers still has individual bats and pitchers that grade well in PFI, while PUC's team record is now too far back to call the same way.
PFI LADDER
Top 20 player form board
Savigny leads the individual-form race with Adrian Pena Pereira and Ivan Acuna in the upper tier, while La Rochelle and Béziers still keep important one-game upside.
| Rank | Player | Team | PFI | Games | Trend | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | PENA PEREIRA Adrian | SAV | 7.72 | 8 | +0.17 | 10.00 |
| #2 | MERCADIER Thibault | ROU | 7.64 | 3 | 0.00 | 8.19 |
| #3 | ACUNA Ivan | SAV | 7.57 | 14 | +1.16 | 8.40 |
| #4 | MEZA Adrian | BEZ | 7.22 | 14 | +0.35 | 7.00 |
| #5 | TAIDO Yui | ROU | 7.08 | 10 | +1.64 | 9.56 |
| #6 | GONZALEZ Lorenzo | PUC | 6.87 | 14 | +0.92 | 10.00 |
| #7 | BRIONES Esteban | LAR | 6.80 | 14 | +1.85 | 10.00 |
| #8 | ROSELL MARTINEZ Daniel | LAR | 6.71 | 13 | -0.24 | 7.53 |
| #9 | VERA Anderson | SEN | 6.67 | 8 | +1.15 | 7.02 |
| #10 | GERMAN Osiris | PUC | 6.63 | 9 | +1.88 | 6.92 |
| #11 | AMOROS Lilian | SAV | 6.59 | 14 | +2.63 | 10.00 |
| #12 | NÚÑEZ DÍAZ Moisés Enifre | SAV | 6.47 | 16 | +1.62 | 6.11 |
| #13 | RODRIGUEZ Douglas | SEN | 6.45 | 8 | +0.38 | 10.00 |
| #14 | DO CARMO BARROS Gabriel | SEN | 6.40 | 14 | -0.78 | 7.35 |
| #15 | VELAZCO Gerwuins | TOU | 6.33 | 14 | +0.39 | 4.87 |
| #16 | MENDEZ CANELO Jorge Luis | MTP | 6.32 | 12 | +1.39 | 7.07 |
| #17 | SCHECHTER Aviad | LAR | 6.27 | 10 | +1.35 | 7.72 |
| #18 | PRIOUL Esteban | ROU | 6.27 | 3 | 0.00 | 4.17 |
| #19 | CAMARA Ismael | LAR | 6.19 | 5 | +0.10 | 6.20 |
| #20 | GAMAS DE LOS SANTOS Juan Carlos | BEZ | 6.06 | 12 | +1.36 | 7.85 |
Savigny
Adrian Pena Pereira and Ivan Acuna sit in the upper tier, so the Lions have both the strongest team power and the strongest individual-form base.
Rouen
The Huskies still own one of the most dangerous pitching-form piles in the league, which is why Thibault Mercadier, Yui Taido, and Esteban Prioul stay central to the title conversation.
PUC
Lorenzo Gonzalez and German Osiris support keeps PUC from being a dead player board even though the team record lags badly.
STATPREDICT V2
Forecast and calibration
The model is directional, not absolute: the title race is real, but the favorite picture is still clear.
Calibration sample
58
Completed-game calibration sample size.
In-sample accuracy
70.2%
Directional accuracy on the fitted sample.
Leave-one-out
59.6%
The caution flag that keeps the forecast probabilistic.
Simulation scale
5,000
Monte Carlo seasons over the remaining 54 games.
Run environment
6.21 runs per team game, dispersion 4.13
The run environment is still lively enough that a strong offense can swing a weekend, but not so wild that prevention stops mattering.
| Rank | Team | Current | Projected | Mean W | Mean L | 1st-place | Mean rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Savigny-sur-Orge Lions | 10-5-1 | 18.4-8.6-1 | 18.4 | 8.6 | 57.9% | 1.68 |
| #2 | La Rochelle Boucaniers | 9-5-0 | 17.7-10.3-0 | 17.7 | 10.3 | 25.8% | 2.43 |
| #3 | Rouen Huskies | 9-7-0 | 16.5-11.5-0 | 16.5 | 11.5 | 8.2% | 3.17 |
| #4 | Montpellier Barracudas | 8-6-0 | 15.9-12.1-0 | 15.9 | 12.1 | 4.6% | 3.84 |
| #5 | Sénart Templiers | 8-5-1 | 15.3-11.7-1 | 15.3 | 11.7 | 3.2% | 4.34 |
| #6 | Stade Toulousain Tigers | 7-7-0 | 13.3-14.7-0 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 0.2% | 5.61 |
| #7 | Béziers Pirates | 5-9-0 | 9.4-18.6-0 | 9.4 | 18.6 | 0.0% | 6.95 |
| #8 | Paris Université Club | 1-13-0 | 4.4-23.6-0 | 4.4 | 23.6 | 0.0% | 7.99 |
Savigny is the narrow favorite
The model does not call the race over, but Savigny has the strongest title probability and the cleanest first-place path in the table.
Montpellier keeps a high ceiling
The Barracudas' offense keeps the ceiling high, but the model refuses to let that erase the prevention risk.
PUC is structurally behind
The projection gap is no longer just variance. PUC is now playing from a structural deficit rather than a temporary one.
Read the forecast as probabilities
The calibration is good enough for directional publication, but the leave-one-out result says the board should stay a probability grid, not a certainty.
METHOD
How the brief was built
The brief combines official data, the internal Statbase form layers, and the same simulation stack used throughout the league reports.
Schedule and box scores
Weekend scores came from the live FFBS/WBSC schedule payload for June 6-7, 2026.
Player form
Player form came from refreshed FD1 2026 PFI game logs built off official box scores.
Team power and PVI
Team power came from the refreshed FD1 2026 team-power build, while PVI is blended from the roster-linked historical leaderboard layer already used by the engine.
Projection hygiene
The remaining schedule was filtered to actual regular-season club matchups so later phase placeholders do not pollute the projection.
Prepared for federation and MLB-scout presentation use
The public version keeps the important reads visible: who is leading, who is surging, and where the remaining schedule can still move the board.