/ FD1 / WEEKEND REVIEW / MAY 9-10 / 2026

France D1 weekend review: the favorites held, but the games argued back

Eight games gave Statbase the most useful kind of post-weekend evidence: enough correct signal to trust the direction, enough resistance to keep the read honest, and enough individual brilliance to remind everyone that baseball still belongs to the players once the first pitch is thrown.

Forecast hit

6 / 8

Correct winners across the completed weekend window.

Games reviewed

Four two-game series across May 9 and May 10.

Actual runs

Below the pre-weekend scoring expectation of 109.5.

Core lens

PVI / PFI / TPM

Player value, player form, and team power kept the story grounded.

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Weekend lead

The headline is 6-for-8. The real story is where the two misses came from.

The pre-weekend board found the right winners in both Savigny games, both Sénart games, Rouen's Sunday response, and Montpellier's Sunday response. It also missed two games that deserve to be treated as baseball stories, not spreadsheet errors: La Rochelle's Game 1 upset behind Jose Miguel Pena Carmona, and Toulouse's 15-3 opener against Montpellier.

That distinction matters. Savigny and Sénart were identified as the clearest sweep paths, and both swept. Rouen and Montpellier were still stronger two-game reads on paper, but both series split. Good forecasting is not the absence of surprise; it is knowing which surprises were possible before they happened.

Scoreboard

Eight games, two sweeps, and two split-series arguments

The compact board below keeps the accountability visible: result, pre-weekend call, and the human read attached to each game.

Sat, May 9 / Game 1

Correct

Béziers Pirates

Sénart Templiers

Pre-weekend call

Sénart

57.7%

The home edge showed up, but only just. Béziers forced Sénart to win the late-inning details.

Official box score

Sat, May 9 / Game 1

Miss

Rouen Huskies

La Rochelle Boucaniers

Pre-weekend call

Rouen

63.5%

La Rochelle punched through the strongest road lean of the weekend, powered by Jose Miguel Pena Carmona's two-homer game.

Official box score

Sat, May 9 / Game 1

Correct

Paris Université Club

Savigny-sur-Orge Lions

Pre-weekend call

Savigny

69.6%

Savigny turned the largest pre-game gap into the cleanest scoreboard margin of Saturday.

Official box score

Sat, May 9 / Game 1

Miss

Montpellier Barracudas

Stade Toulousain Tigers

Pre-weekend call

Montpellier

58.4%

Toulouse produced the weekend's loudest answer, slowing Montpellier first and then opening the game in a hurry.

Official box score

Sat, May 9 / Game 2

Correct

Paris Université Club

Savigny-sur-Orge Lions

Pre-weekend call

Savigny

69.3%

The second game followed the same script: Savigny stayed orderly and kept PUC chasing.

Official box score

Sun, May 10 / Game 2

Correct

Rouen Huskies

La Rochelle Boucaniers

Pre-weekend call

Rouen

63.5%

Rouen's response was not loud, but it was professional: three runs, enough pitching, and a split rescued on the road.

Official box score

Sun, May 10 / Game 2

Correct

Béziers Pirates

Sénart Templiers

Pre-weekend call

Sénart

57.7%

Another one-run finish, another Sénart answer. The result matched the forecast without ever feeling comfortable.

Official box score

Sun, May 10 / Game 2

Correct

Montpellier Barracudas

Stade Toulousain Tigers

Pre-weekend call

Montpellier

58.4%

Montpellier's Sunday win kept the split from becoming a larger warning. Its top-end bats still travel.

Official box score

Game	Score	Pre-weekend call	Result	Read
Sat, May 9 Game 1 / Box 182818	Béziers Pirates 4 Sénart Templiers 5	Sénart 57.7%	Correct	The home edge showed up, but only just. Béziers forced Sénart to win the late-inning details.
Sat, May 9 Game 1 / Box 182819	Rouen Huskies 4 La Rochelle Boucaniers 8	Rouen 63.5%	Miss	La Rochelle punched through the strongest road lean of the weekend, powered by Jose Miguel Pena Carmona's two-homer game.
Sat, May 9 Game 1 / Box 182820	Paris Université Club 1 Savigny-sur-Orge Lions 7	Savigny 69.6%	Correct	Savigny turned the largest pre-game gap into the cleanest scoreboard margin of Saturday.
Sat, May 9 Game 1 / Box 182821	Montpellier Barracudas 3 Stade Toulousain Tigers 15	Montpellier 58.4%	Miss	Toulouse produced the weekend's loudest answer, slowing Montpellier first and then opening the game in a hurry.
Sat, May 9 Game 2 / Box 182822	Paris Université Club 1 Savigny-sur-Orge Lions 6	Savigny 69.3%	Correct	The second game followed the same script: Savigny stayed orderly and kept PUC chasing.
Sun, May 10 Game 2 / Box 182823	Rouen Huskies 3 La Rochelle Boucaniers 2	Rouen 63.5%	Correct	Rouen's response was not loud, but it was professional: three runs, enough pitching, and a split rescued on the road.
Sun, May 10 Game 2 / Box 182888	Béziers Pirates 5 Sénart Templiers 6	Sénart 57.7%	Correct	Another one-run finish, another Sénart answer. The result matched the forecast without ever feeling comfortable.
Sun, May 10 Game 2 / Box 182889	Montpellier Barracudas 7 Stade Toulousain Tigers 4	Montpellier 58.4%	Correct	Montpellier's Sunday win kept the split from becoming a larger warning. Its top-end bats still travel.

Series files

Four doubleheaders, four very different proofs

A weekend review should not flatten every result into the same kind of evidence. Sweeps, splits, blowouts, and one-run games say different things.

Series file

Sénart vs Béziers

Result

Sénart sweep

Run line

11-9 aggregate

Sénart did not dominate Béziers. It did something more revealing for a contender: it won the same tense game twice.

The pre-weekend board called a moderate home edge, and both games landed inside that narrow margin.

Gabriel Do Carmo Barros finished as the weekend's PFI leader at 18.17, while Yorfrank Manuel Lopez Tequedor added a two-way 15.94 PFI weekend.

Béziers left with two losses, but the shape of the series was competitive enough to respect.

Reporter's read

Two one-run wins made Sénart's sweep more persuasive, not less. Close-game pressure was the series.

Series file

La Rochelle vs Rouen

Result

Series split

Run line

La Rochelle 10, Rouen 7

Rouen arrived with the cleaner statistical case. La Rochelle made the first game belong to one player, then Rouen steadied the weekend before it got away.

Jose Miguel Pena Carmona's Game 1 line, two home runs and six RBI, was the loudest single-game swing of the round.

Rouen still answered Sunday, and Oscar Lebouc gave the Huskies a constant across both games with 16.55 weekend PFI.

The split keeps Rouen's larger profile intact, while giving La Rochelle a real proof point against a title-standard opponent.

Reporter's read

The difference between a road disappointment and a road problem was Rouen's 3-2 Sunday response.

Series file

Savigny vs PUC

Result

Savigny sweep

Run line

13-2 aggregate

This was the weekend's cleanest read from first pitch to final out. Savigny had more ways to win and made PUC play uphill in both games.

Savigny carried the strongest PVI base into the matchup and had Ivan Acuna, a 78 PVI player, turn that quality into 16.23 weekend PFI.

PUC scored once in each game, which made every defensive mistake and every empty inning feel heavier.

Osiris German still gave PUC a meaningful individual line: six innings, no earned runs, eight strikeouts, one walk, and 8.48 PFI in a loss.

Reporter's read

The sweep was not built on one burst. It was built on Savigny repeating the same control profile twice.

Series file

Toulouse vs Montpellier

Result

Series split

Run line

Toulouse 19, Montpellier 10

The wildest series of the weekend produced both the biggest upset and the clearest reminder that Montpellier can still hit its way back into a set.

Toulouse's 15-3 opener was the weekend's largest result, with Gerwuins Velazco driving in five and Jhon Will Garcia Delgado giving the Tigers the start they needed.

Montpellier recovered 7-4 on Sunday behind maximum-impact games from Paolo Brossier and Jorge Luis Mendez Canelo.

The split confirms the central tension around Montpellier: the offense is dangerous enough to answer, but the run prevention keeps the door open.

Reporter's read

Toulouse did not merely steal a game. It created a scoreboard that changes how opponents have to treat the Tigers.

Statbase lens

PVI, PFI, and TPM did their best work when they were read together

PVI showed who could be trusted

Player Value Index

Acuna was the cleanest example: a 78 PVI player who then produced a 16.23 PFI weekend in Savigny's sweep. PVI kept the read anchored to established quality before the games started.

PFI caught the weekend's heat

Player Form Index

Do Carmo Barros, Lebouc, Pena Carmona, Brossier, Velazco, Lorienne, and German all explain the weekend better than the final scores alone. PFI is where the games became personal.

TPM kept the team picture sober

Team Power Metric

Rouen and Montpellier still have strong roster arguments despite splits. Savigny's team shape became more convincing. Sénart's two close wins gave its TPM profile better evidence.

Player notebook

The names that moved the weekend

This is where the report stops being abstract. The standings changed because specific players changed games.

Gabriel Do Carmo Barros

Sénart Templiers

18.17 weekend PFI

4-for-6, HR, four runs, three walks, two steals

The weekend's form leader turned a pair of one-run games into a sweep.

Oscar Lebouc

Rouen Huskies

16.55 weekend PFI

4-for-6, two doubles, two RBI, two runs, three walks

Rouen split the series, but Lebouc gave the Huskies one steady offensive thread.

Ivan Acuna

Savigny-sur-Orge Lions

78 PVI, 16.23 weekend PFI

4-for-7, two doubles, three RBI, two walks, one steal

A proven-value player gave Savigny exactly the current-impact weekend the board expected.

Jose Miguel Pena Carmona

La Rochelle Boucaniers

10.00 Game 1 PFI

2-for-3, two home runs, six RBI, two runs

The loudest individual performance of the round turned Rouen's road edge into a Saturday miss.

Paolo Brossier

Montpellier Barracudas

Maximum Game 2 PFI

4-for-7, double, three runs, walk, three steals

Montpellier needed a Sunday response, and Brossier supplied the pressure at the top of it.

Gerwuins Velazco

Stade Toulousain Tigers

13.46 weekend PFI

Six RBI, including the force behind Toulouse's 15-run opener

The Tigers' split was built through middle-order damage, not just Montpellier mistakes.

Brice Lorienne

Béziers Pirates

14.89 weekend PFI

Reached base six times across two one-run losses

The record got worse; the player signal did not. Béziers had real resistance in the series.

Osiris German

Paris Université Club

8.48 Game 1 PFI

6.0 IP, zero earned runs, eight strikeouts, one walk

PUC's weekend was hard, but German's start belongs in the report, not in the footnotes.

Club reads

What each club carries out of the weekend

Sénart Templiers

Pressure validated

6-4

Weekend marker

Two one-run wins

The sweep matters because it arrived without comfort. Do Carmo Barros, Lopez Tequedor, and Douglas Rodriguez gave Sénart the weekend's strongest PFI cluster.

Savigny-sur-Orge Lions

Cleanest profile

7-3

Weekend marker

+11 weekend margin

Savigny is now the side with the most settled standing line. Acuna's PVI-to-PFI confirmation gives the Lions a star signal with team-wide control behind it.

Rouen Huskies

Still powerful

6-4

Weekend marker

+31 run differential

The La Rochelle split took some shine off the road lean, but Rouen's Sunday response and season run differential still point to one of the league's strongest bases.

La Rochelle Boucaniers

Proof point gained

5-3

Weekend marker

8-4 over Rouen

La Rochelle did more than split. It showed it can create a player-driven game state against an elite opponent and hold enough pitching shape to make the weekend real.

Montpellier Barracudas

Danger and risk

6-4

Weekend marker

9.7 runs per game

The bats still have the league's loudest ceiling. The prevention profile still turns too many games into open questions.

Stade Toulousain Tigers

More than spoilers

5-5

Weekend marker

15-run opener

Toulouse earned a different level of attention. Velazco's production and Garcia Delgado's start gave the Tigers a complete upset shape.

Béziers Pirates

Record hides resistance

3-7

Weekend marker

Two one-run losses

There are no consolation points, but this was not a disappearing act. Lorienne and Adrian Meza kept Béziers in games that could easily have swung once.

Paris Université Club

Still searching

0-8

Weekend marker

Two runs in series

PUC's margin for error remains tiny. The useful signs are individual: German's pitching, Julian Dussart's contact, and Bret Bowers' steady at-bats.

Table pressure

The standings tightened, but the pressure is not evenly shared

The post-weekend table is more interesting than the records alone. Run differential, player form, and the way each series was won matter.

Team	Record	Run diff	Post-weekend read
Savigny-sur-Orge Lions	7-3	+21	The cleanest standings profile after the weekend, backed by the most convincing sweep.
Rouen Huskies	6-4	+31	Still statistically powerful, though La Rochelle reminded everyone that one weekend can still pull a favorite into a fight.
Montpellier Barracudas	6-4	+19	The offense remains a headline. The weekend also kept the warning label attached.
Sénart Templiers	6-4	+2	The record looks better because the one-run sweep came with credible individual form behind it.
La Rochelle Boucaniers	5-3	-1	A split with Rouen gives La Rochelle something more valuable than a neutral weekend: evidence.
Stade Toulousain Tigers	5-5	-3	A level record, but the 15-run game changes the tone around the club.
Béziers Pirates	3-7	-24	The table is harsh. The two one-run losses say the competitive gap is not the whole story.
Paris Université Club	0-8	-43	Still looking for the first win, with the strongest weekend signal coming from individual pitching.

Closing read

The useful forecast is the one that survives contact with the weekend

The final read

The weekend did not ask Statbase to choose between numbers and baseball. It asked for both. The forecast found most of the winners. PVI identified established value. PFI named the players who bent games away from the pre-weekend read. TPM kept the club-level interpretation from chasing every single score.

The one clear adjustment is the scoring temperature. The projected run total was too high, even while the winner calls mostly held. That is a useful lesson, not a crisis: as the completed-game sample grows, the run environment can tighten quickly. The bigger achievement is that the structure already tells a baseball story fans can recognize and teams can use.