/ FD1 / PFI REPORT / GAMEWEEK 4 / 2026

French Division 1 Gameweek 4 analytical report

A May 2-3 round where the final scores were only the surface layer. PFI helps separate structural movement from short-term variance by combining production, game pressure, and reliability.

Period covered: May 2-3, 2026

Games analyzed: 6

Postponed: PUC and La Rochelle

HOMEREPORTS HUBFD1 TEAM INDEX

WEEKEND ENVIRONMENT

Cross-league patterns from this weekend

Across six games, the run environment was defined by traffic, free bases, pressure baserunning, and defensive volatility more than home-run power.

RUNS

65

Across six games

HITS

102

Traffic base

WALKS

67

Discipline pressure

STRIKEOUTS

111

Pitching volatility remained high

HOME RUNS

3

Damage was not power-led

ERRORS

22

Defensive volatility mattered

EVENT TOTALS

Runs

65

Hits

102

Walks

67

Strikeouts

111

Errors

22

HR

3

EDGE DRIVERS

Traffic/ Hits + walks

169

Baserunning/ Steals at 80%

20

Defense/ Errors

22

Power/ Home runs

3

Offensive damage was built more through traffic and discipline than pure power.

20 steals at 80% success kept pressure baserunning relevant.

Teams that controlled free baserunners and high-leverage innings were rewarded most consistently by both results and PFI.

GW4 VS APRIL BASELINE

Lower scoring, higher pressure

Benchmarked against the GW1-GW3 average, GW4 changed the shape of games more than it changed the league's overall quality level.

STYLE SHIFT, NOT SIMPLE BETTER/WORSE

GW4 became lower-scoring, more selective, and more execution-driven than the April weekends.

PITCHING WAS NOT CLEANER

Strikeouts stayed in the same high band while strike rate dipped, pointing to deep counts and volatility.

PFI TIGHTENED

Average team-game PFI rose slightly while spread compressed, so performances were less extreme.

Runs / game

Scoring volume cooled.

-21%
GW410.83
GW1-GW3 avg13.71

Hits / game

Less clean contact volume.

-10%
GW417.00
GW1-GW3 avg18.95

Walks / game

More forced traffic and longer at-bats.

+19%
GW411.17
GW1-GW3 avg9.42

BB/K ratio

Better hitter patience and more pitch stress.

+0.088
GW40.604
GW1-GW3 avg0.516

HR / game

Run creation was less power-led.

-21%
GW40.50
GW1-GW3 avg0.63

Strike%

More deep counts, not cleaner command.

-1.06 pp
GW461.97%
GW1-GW3 avg63.03%

Errors / game

Slightly improved, but still volatile.

-8%
GW43.67
GW1-GW3 avg4.00

Team-game PFI

Small quality uplift with tighter spread.

+0.070
GW45.309
GW1-GW3 avg5.239

One-run games

4 of 6 games were decided by one run.

+45 pp
GW467%
GW1-GW3 avg22%

ACTIVE PLAYER PFI DRIFT

80 active players

Improved

37

Declined

34

Flat

9

Net effect: slight positive drift, not a major league-wide jump.

TEAM DIRECTION SPLIT

POSITIVE MOMENTUM

SEN, SAV, BEZ

NEGATIVE MOMENTUM

MTP, TOU

NEAR-STABLE FRUSTRATION

ROU

Executive synthesis

Gameweek 4 was an upset round by result, but the sharper read is that three teams gained repeatable value while two contenders exposed short-window correction needs.

THE BOARD FLIPPED IN THREE PLACES

Beziers, Senart, and Savigny all swept series where the pre-weekend shape either favored the opponent or only leaned away from them.

THE STRONGEST REAL-IMPROVEMENT – SENART

Their production quality, run prevention, and high-pressure outcomes all moved together in the same direction.

ROUEN QUALITY DID NOT VANISH

The caution is conversion in close-game moments, not a full underlying collapse.

MONTPELLIER'S DROP WAS BROAD

The PFI fall came with offensive and run-prevention deterioration in the same window, making it the clearest short-term degradation signal.

HEAD TO HEAD

Pre-weekend expectation vs actual result

The visual read is simple: expected edge on the left, weekend result on the right. Every series either flipped the favorite or turned a lean into a sweep.

CLEAR FAVORITE

7-6 / 12 inn.3-2

Rouen vs Beziers

PRE-WEEKEND EDGE

Rouen

5-1 / PFI 5.68

Clear Rouen favorite on record, run prevention, and team quality.

FLIPPED

ACTUAL OUTCOME

Beziers sweep

Challenger: Beziers / Lower-position challenger / PFI 4.86

Run prevention stabilized enough for Beziers to win both pressure games.

CLEAR FAVORITE

13-35-4

Montpellier vs Senart

PRE-WEEKEND EDGE

Montpellier

5-1 / PFI 6.13

Clear Montpellier favorite by both record and pre-weekend PFI.

FLIPPED

ACTUAL OUTCOME

Senart sweep

Challenger: Senart / 2-4 / PFI 4.81

The weekend's clearest trend inflection: Senart rose while Montpellier dropped broadly.

LEAN, NOT LOCK

9-26-5

Toulouse vs Savigny

PRE-WEEKEND EDGE

Toulouse lean

4-2

Balanced series with Toulouse ahead by record, but indicators close enough to avoid a hard favorite.

FLIPPED

ACTUAL OUTCOME

Savigny sweep

Challenger: Savigny / 3-3

Savigny won both shapes: the control game and the one-run finish.

Weekend PFI movement

Known team movement from the report window. Rouen is plotted at the neutral line as a quality-held, conversion-watch signal because the supplied report did not include a numeric ROU delta.

RESULT VS PROCESS SERIESTWO ONE-RUN WINS

Beziers swept Rouen

Beziers 7-6 in 12, Beziers 3-2

Rouen still produced enough underlying quality to avoid panic, but Beziers changed the shape of the matchup through run prevention and late-game execution.

BEZ PRE-WEEKEND ERA

7.58

Baseline before GW4

BEZ GW4 ERA

1.71

Run-prevention inflection

BEZ PFI MOVE

+0.76

Vs pre-weekend level

Beziers' weekend pitching was the biggest shift relative to its own baseline.
The staff profile moved from damage control to inning control, which kept both games inside stealable margins.
Rouen's warning light is not quality collapse; it is one-run conversion against pressure.
TREND INFLECTION SERIESBLOWOUT PLUS ONE-RUN FINISH

Senart swept Montpellier

Senart 13-3, Senart 5-4

This was the cleanest structural movement case: Montpellier's favorite profile dropped hard while Senart improved in several connected areas.

MTP PFI MOVE

-1.52

Vs pre-weekend level

SEN PFI MOVE

+0.80

Nearly full-point jump

GAME SCRIPTS

2

Won both control and pressure scripts

Senart paired better offensive quality with better run prevention.
High-pressure plate outcomes supported the same direction as the box-score result.
Montpellier's degradation was broad, with OPS and pitching command falling together.
COMPLETENESS TESTCONTROL GAME PLUS CLOSE GAME

Savigny swept Toulouse

Savigny 9-2, Savigny 6-5

This series looked balanced before first pitch, but Savigny won both scripts by improving its offensive profile and staff outcomes together.

SAV PFI MOVE

+0.64

Vs pre-weekend level

TOU PFI MOVE

-0.49

Weekend slip

SCRIPTS WON

2

Runaway and pressure finish

Savigny's offense moved from modest pre-weekend form to a stronger weekend profile.
Pitching efficiency improved enough to support both a wide-margin win and a one-run finish.
Toulouse stayed competitive in Game 2 but did not sustain enough two-game quality.

Season trajectory update

The weekend window sharpened two types of player movement: upward form backed by leverage value, and visible drop-offs that matched broader team-level degradation.

Strongest positive movers

AMOROS Axel

SAV

Major form jump, now one of the strongest upward signals in the league.

LANDRY Lucas

SEN

Large upward move with meaningful high-leverage influence.

MEZA Adrian

BEZ

Continued rise; impact quality and trend now align strongly.

NISHIKAWA Ryosuke

ROU

Strong upward individual trajectory even during team-level losses.

Most visible negative swings

BOUNIOL Dorian

MTP

Large negative form swing inside Montpellier's broad weekend drop.

DOAT Pierre

MTP

Large negative form swing in the same degradation window.

LAOT Nathan

TOU

Notable downshift during Toulouse's weekend PFI slip.

Montpellier regulars

MTP

Multiple simultaneous downward movements support the team-level warning.

Final interpretation

The key takeaway is not simply who swept. It is which clubs are now gaining reliable, repeatable value in the PFI model from week to week, and which ones need immediate correction before the next cycle compounds the trend.

PROGRESS

Beziers

A lower-position team can flip outcomes quickly when run prevention stabilizes and close-game execution improves.

STRUCTURAL RISE

Senart

The strongest real-improvement case because production quality and game-state execution moved together.

MORE COMPLETE

Savigny

The sweep reads less like heat and more like a fuller team profile coming online.

QUALITY INTACT, PRESSURE WATCH

Rouen

Underlying level remains high, but one-run conversion lagged in both games.

DEGRADATION

Montpellier

The weekend drop was broad enough to demand immediate correction before it compounds.

SHORT-WINDOW SLIP

Toulouse

The one-run loss showed competitiveness, but the two-game sample exposed pitching-efficiency risk.

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