Title favorite
MTP 34.7%
Montpellier's offensive ceiling gives it the narrow championship edge.
/ StatPredict · 28 July 2026
The final month of baseball in France
Six teams. Four play-off places. One championship.
Savigny is the most likely regular-season winner. Montpellier is the narrow championship favorite. Rouen becomes more dangerous once the bracket starts, while Sénart is playing like a Final Four team from below the qualification line.
First-place favorite
SAV 55.8%
Savigny owns the strongest route to the top regular-season seed.
Likely Final Four
77.9%
Montpellier, Savigny, La Rochelle and Rouen occupy all four places.
Simulation run
500,000
Remaining regular-season schedule and the complete Final Four.
/ Projection map
Qualification and championship potential are not the same question
The chart separates the race to enter the Final Four from the team profiles most likely to survive it.
Qualification versus championship equity
The Final Four line is almost settled for three clubs. Championship probability remains much more concentrated around Montpellier and Savigny.
The two-way profile
Right is better offense; higher is better run prevention. The dashed lines mark the local .371 wOBA and 4.84 FIP baselines.
Most likely championship series
Montpellier-Savigny is the only final pairing above 14%, which makes the two-team title concentration visible without pretending either is dominant.
/ Projection board
Six contenders, three different races
Higher wOBA is better; lower FIP is better. The local league baselines are .371 wOBA and 4.84 FIP.
| Team | Current | PFI | wOBA | FIP | Final Four | Reach final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Montpellier The league's highest offensive ceiling carries the title favorite. | 15-7 | 5.31 | .432 | 5.19 | 99.5% | 61.4% | 34.7% |
 Savigny The strongest two-way profile and the likeliest first-place finisher. | 15-7 | 5.10 | .401 | 3.95 | 99.7% | 59.9% | 32.3% |
 La Rochelle A high qualification floor with a more concentrated pitching plan. | 15-9 | 5.06 | .374 | 4.67 | 96.4% | 37.3% | 15.1% |
 Rouen Less secure in the table, more dangerous once a short series begins. | 13-9 | 5.22 | .362 | 4.17 | 82.4% | 36.6% | 16.8% |
 Sénart The strongest current team outside the qualification places. | 12-10 | 5.46 | .391 | 4.25 | 21.3% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
 Toulouse Credible pitching, but an offense that leaves almost no margin. | 10-12 | 4.72 | .329 | 4.68 | 0.8% | 0.2% | Below 0.1% |
/ Title race
Montpellier can overwhelm a series. Savigny can control it from both directions.
The 2.4-point title gap is small because the co-favorites arrive through opposite profiles.
StatPredict favorite
Montpellier Barracudas
34.7%
The offensive ceiling
A .432 team wOBA gives Montpellier the best run-creation profile in the league. Paolo Brossier, Pierre Doat and Jorge Luis Mendez Canelo all sit above .520, allowing the Barracudas to win through several lineup lanes.
Series question
The 5.19 staff FIP means the likely winning script is pressure and early leads, not total run prevention.
Most balanced profile
Savigny-sur-Orge Lions
32.3%
The two-way control case
Savigny's .401 wOBA is comfortably above average, while its 3.95 staff FIP is the best among the contenders. Orozco, Chevet and Peña give the Lions several credible ways to control a five-game series.
Series question
Savigny's edge is not one overwhelming tool; it is the absence of a structural weakness as large as Montpellier's pitching risk.
/ Qualification pressure
Sénart needs separation. Toulouse needs perfection.
The teams below fourth place do not have equivalent routes back into the bracket.
Sénart
The live dark horse
Sénart's 5.46 PFI, .391 wOBA and 4.25 FIP describe a Final Four-caliber team. Its 1.2% title figure is primarily a qualification penalty.
4-2 finish~35% qualify
5-1 finish~90% qualify
6-0 finishEssentially certain
Toulouse
The near-perfect route
Tigers have viable pitching but the weakest contender offense. They must change run-production & get help from Rouen-Sénart.
4-2 finish~0.2% qualify
5-1 finish~23% qualify
6-0 finish~95% qualify
Most likely field
77.9%
Montpellier, Savigny, La Rochelle and Rouen take all four Final Four places in nearly four of every five projected seasons.
MontpellierSavignyLa RochelleRouenPenalty defeats matter in tied qualification races, so Sénart's route is stronger when it finishes clearly above the fourth-place line.
/ Contender files
The strengths that travel, and the risks that can end a series
Each contender has one clear postseason lever. The separation comes from how much the opposing weakness can be protected.
Montpellier
Offense can break the series
Montpellier's .432 team wOBA is 61 points above the league baseline and 31 points clear of Savigny.
Travels well
Several lineup slots can create pressure and extra-base damage.
Series risk
A 5.19 staff FIP is the weakest mark among the six contenders.
Brossier .585 wOBA · Doat .537 · Mendez Canelo .522
Savigny
The complete champ profile
Savigny combines a .401 wOBA with the best staff FIP in the field at 3.95.
Travels well
Three credible run-prevention options and a deep above-average lineup.
Series risk
The recent PFI trend is softer than the broader two-way profile.
Acuña .559 wOBA · Orozco 2.82 FIP · Peña 3.84
Rouen
The bracket disruptor
Rouen's title probability exceeds La Rochelle's despite a lower chance of qualifying.
Travels well
Taido and Ito anchor the second-best staff FIP among the contenders.
Series risk
A .362 team wOBA leaves the lineup below the local league baseline.
Taido 3.22 FIP · Ito 3.98 · Harrison .426 wOBA
La Rochelle
Safe qualifier, narrower staff
Fifteen wins and only four games remaining give La Rochelle a 96.4% Final Four probability.
Travels well
Paredes and De La Rosa provide a postseason-quality top of the staff.
Series risk
Run prevention becomes less stable once the series moves beyond those two.
Paredes 2.51 FIP · De La Rosa 3.91 · Hashimoto .465 wOBA
Sénart
Final four team below the line
Sénart leads the current PFI board at 5.46 and is above average on both offense and pitching.
Travels well
Vera's +9.85 xRAA supports a roster capable of competing with the top four.
Series risk
The Templiers need clear separation because penalty defeats hurt tied-record scenarios.
Vera 3.44 FIP · Do Carmo Barros .544 wOBA · Lopez .480
Toulouse
Pitching without offense
The Tigers' 4.68 staff FIP is viable, but the .329 team wOBA is lowest among the six.
Travels well
Rojas Perez, Laot and Garcia Delgado provide credible pitching lanes.
Series risk
The run profile already trails the official record by roughly 2.6 expected wins.
Rojas Perez 3.03 FIP · Velazco .444 wOBA · Soriano .423
/ Bracket map
The likely Final Four is stable. Its seeding order is not.
First plays fourth and second plays third. Three wins are required in each round, with the opening weekend hosted by the lower seed.
Most likely semifinal structures
1
Montpellier-La Rochelle / Savigny-Rouen
33.2%
2
Montpellier-Rouen / Savigny-La Rochelle
32.1%
3
Montpellier-Savigny / La Rochelle-Rouen
12.7%
Most likely final
vs33.3%
Montpellier vs Savigny
No other championship pairing reaches 14%. That does not make the final inevitable; it shows how strongly the two leading team profiles survive different bracket orders.
Read the Division 1 format/ Final read
Two co-favorites, two credible challengers, one live dark horse
The regular-season order matters, but it does not erase the matchup profiles underneath it.
Montpellier
The StatPredict title favorite because the league's best offense can change a series in one turn through the order.
34.7%
Savigny
The safest analytical selection because elite run prevention supports an already above-average offense.
32.3%
Rouen
The most dangerous bracket disruptor; the qualification path is shakier than the pitching-led series profile.
16.8%
La Rochelle
The high-floor qualifier whose ceiling depends on keeping the top of the staff in control of the important innings.
15.1%
Sénart
The true dark horse: current form and two-way quality are stronger than its position below the line.
1.2%
Toulouse
A near-perfect finish is required because credible pitching has not received enough offensive support.
<0.1%
/ Related reports
Follow the season from the halfway point to the final month
The earlier league baseline and the current U21 translation add roster and development context to the playoff board.
FD1 midseason brief
The halfway board before the race compressed
Savigny led the June model, all eight clubs had reached the practical halfway point, and 54 regular-season games remained.
France U21 report
The age map underneath the contenders
A league-wide age audit and a confidence-weighted France U21 roster built from current Division 1 evidence.
Final-month decision support
See the playoff race before the table settles it
Statbase connects qualification probability, short-series matchup strength, live player form, and roster depth so clubs can plan the final month with more than the current standings.
6 contenders
priced across qualification and title paths
500,000 paths
through the remaining schedule and Final Four
2 co-favorites
separated by only 2.4 title points