Series pick
KOT 73.9%
Kotlářka now leads every tested model scenario.
/ StatPredict · 250,000 simulations · 4 September 2026
The final we forecast is here.
Kotlářka vs Hroši. Best of seven. First to four wins.
The August projection's most likely final became the Czech Series. The recalculation changes the order: regular-season winner Kotlářka enters at 73.9%, while Hroši carries the pitching profile that can still break the favorite's path.
Most likely result
KOT 4-1
A five-game Kotlářka win carries 21.6%, narrowly ahead of 4-2.
Expected length
5.67 games
The central forecast reaches the second weekend without requiring Game 7.
Series setup
Best of 7
Kotlářka hosts Games 1, 2, 6 and 7.
/ Series map
The probability is clear. The matchup is not simple.
Three views explain the call: the exact series outcomes, the seven game-level edges, and the split between Kotlářka's offense and Hroši's run prevention.
Eight ways the series ends
A Kotlářka win in five or six games forms the center of the distribution. Hroši's strongest route extends the series to Game 7.
Kotlářka carries every game
The game-level advantage stays between 60.5% and 62.3%. Home sequence: KOT, KOT, HRO, HRO, HRO, KOT, KOT.
Offense versus run prevention
Right is better offense; higher is better pitching. Dashed lines mark the .353 league wOBA and 4.85 league FIP baselines.
/ Matchup board
Kotlářka owns more edges. Hroši owns the mound.
wOBA weights offensive outcomes by run value; higher is better. FIP isolates the results pitchers control; lower is better. PFI captures current impact, PVI season value and TPM roster strength.
| Measure | Kotlářka | Hroši | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular season | 26-9 | 22-13 | KOT |
| Semifinal | 3-0 · 29-2 | 3-1 · 25-12 | KOT |
| Run difference / game | +2.97 | +1.67 | KOT |
| Offense · wOBA | .402 | .358 | KOT |
| Pitching · FIP | 4.82 | 4.32 | HRO |
| Current impact · PFI | 5.44 | 5.20 | KOT |
| Season value · PVI | 62.2 | 60.1 | KOT |
| Roster strength · TPM | 62.0 | 62.0 | EVEN |
/ Forecast shift
Why the model moved toward Kotlářka
The August forecast asked which contender had the strongest neutral short-series profile. The current forecast knows the finalists, the completed semifinal evidence and the actual seven-game schedule.
5 August
01HRO 52.7%
Hroši held the narrow neutral-game edge before the bracket was settled.
Regular season
02KOT 26-9
Kotlářka finished first with a +86 run differential and the deeper offense.
Semifinals
03KOT 29-2
The Eagles sweep was more decisive than Hroši's 3-1 recovery against Draci.
Current call
04KOT 73.9%
Four possible home games and the stronger completed path move the final toward Prague.
/ Winning cases
Two routes to four wins
Kotlářka's route starts with repeated lineup pressure. Hroši's route is to make four games small enough for its best arms to decide them.
Kotlářka
Kotlářka Praha
73.9%
Pressure without a safe pitch
A .402 team wOBA gives Kotlářka the series' deeper offense. Prejda and Červenka anchor the season production, while Burkert and Chlup showed how quickly one mistake can become extra-base damage in the semifinal.
Batting leaders
Max Prejda
.570 wOBA · 79 PA
Martin Červenka
.541 wOBA · 175 PA
Marek Chlup
.476 wOBA · 77 PA
Pitching leaders
Jan Novák
4.08 FIP · 80.0 IP
David Křeček
4.42 FIP · 55.0 IP
Lukáš Ercoli
4.85 FIP · 60.3 IP
Series question
Can the 4.82 staff FIP protect repeated one-run leads without forcing the lineup to win every game twice?
Hroši
Cardion Hroši Brno
26.1%
Turn seven games into four pitching wins
Hroši's 4.32 staff FIP is the strongest single weapon in the series. Johnson crosses both sides of the matchup, Malconian supplies swing-and-miss volume, and Pacal gives the rotation length.
Batting leaders
Ryan Johnson
.505 wOBA · 146 PA
Antonio Dominguez
.464 wOBA · 68 PA
Tomáš Říčný
.442 wOBA · 140 PA
Pitching leaders
Ryan Johnson
2.92 FIP · 28.7 IP
Matthew Malconian
3.01 FIP · 44.3 IP
Lukáš Pacal
3.88 FIP · 74.0 IP
Series question
Can Hroši keep Kotlářka from turning walks and extra-base power into the multi-run innings that break a pitching-first plan?
/ Head to head
Hroši owns the strongest counterargument
Five regular-season meetings matter. They do not erase the completed league and semifinal records, but they show that Kotlářka's favorite status is not immunity.
Kotlářka
2
wins · 18 runs
Hroši
3
wins · 28 runs
The upset route already exists
Hroši has already won this matchup three times
The 28-18 aggregate is the clearest evidence against treating 73.9% as certainty. Kotlářka still leads because the final forecast combines those meetings with the complete regular season, semifinal form and four possible home games.
Five direct games strengthen Hroši's case. They do not decide a new best-of-seven automatically.
/ Game board
Read the series in three schedule blocks
The seven rows collapse into a simpler pattern: two games in Prague, three in Brno, then two possible games back in Prague. The favorite changes very little inside each block.
Prague opening
Games 1-2
62.3%
KOT win chance
G14 Sep · 16:00
G25 Sep · 13:00
Kotlářka opens with two home games and its clearest opportunity to make the offensive edge visible early.
Scoring center · KOT 8.5 · HRO 6.4-6.5
Brno middle
Games 3-5
60.5-60.6%
KOT win chance
G36 Sep · 14:00
G411 Sep · 16:00
G512 Sep · 13:00if needed
Hroši owns the longest home stretch. This is where its pitching route has to compress the series.
Scoring center · KOT 8.3 · HRO 6.5-6.6
Prague finish
Games 6-7
62.2-62.3%
KOT win chance
G613 Sep · 13:00if needed
G719 Sep · 13:00if needed
If the final reaches Games 6 and 7, Kotlářka returns home with almost the same game-level advantage.
Scoring center · KOT 8.5 · HRO 6.4-6.5
The win percentages and scoring centers summarize the model within each venue block. They are not literal final-score predictions.
/ Final call
Kotlářka is the pick. Hroši is built to resist it.
Every tested model scenario favors Kotlářka, with a range from 65.9% to 82.2%. The central call is strong without making the series safe.
73.9%
StatPredict selection
Kotlářka Praha
The stronger offense, the more dominant semifinal and four scheduled home games stack into the favorite.
26.1%
Live challenger
Cardion Hroši Brno
A split in Prague and four low-margin pitching games can move the series away from the central forecast quickly.
Most likely exact result
Kotlářka 4-1 · 21.6%
Expected 5.67 games
/ Related reports
Follow the forecast from open bracket to Czech Series
The August CEX projection preserves the original bracket call; the DBL and France reports show the same model applied to different postseason structures.
5 August · CEX
The playoff race and title projection
The saved forecast that identified Kotlářka-Hroši as the bracket's most likely final.
Germany · DBL
Quarterfinal review and semifinal forecast
Three sweeps, one comeback and an updated path through the German bracket.
France · D1
Regular-season roundup
The final table, forecast audit and confirmed Final Four matchups in France.
CEX series intelligence
Turn one final into seven prepared decisions
Statbase connects opponent tendencies, rotation depth, player form and game-by-game probability so clubs can prepare beyond a single series pick.
147 games
inside the current CEX scope
7 game slots
mapped through the final
2 finalists
from team level to player level