Forecast scorecard
3 / 4
Bonn, Regensburg and Hamburg advanced as forecast; all three swept.
/ DBL quarterfinal review · StatPredict v2 · 25 August 2026
The favorites swept. Paderborn broke the script.
Three sweeps, one comeback, and two co-favorites heading into the DBL semifinals.
StatPredict selected three of four quarterfinal winners. The only miss came in the matchup already priced as a coin flip; the live model now separates Regensburg and Bonn by just 1.9 title points.
Quarterfinal sample
14 games
Official box scores from August 15 through August 23.
Most likely final
60.0%
Bonn vs Regensburg is the majority bracket outcome.
Co-favorite gap
1.9 pts
Regensburg 44.4%, Bonn 42.5% in the live title forecast.
/ Round in one view
The forecast held. Nevertheless the field changed.
Three views connect the original quarterfinal probabilities, the form each series produced, and the championship equity that remains.
Live championship equity
Regensburg and Bonn hold 86.9% of the updated title probability, but neither separates from the other by more than two points.
Quarterfinal forecast receipts
Bars show the original probability assigned to each favorite. Green marks a correct winner; red marks the lone miss.
Quarterfinal PFI movement
The three swept clubs that lost all fell sharply. Regensburg and Paderborn are the semifinalists that improved most.
/ Forecast receipts
Three correct favorites and one close-series miss
The mean Brier score was 0.153 against 0.250 for a neutral 50% baseline. Four series are a scorecard, not a calibration sample.
1 vs 8 · original favorite 72.2%
Bonn 3-0
21-5 runs
Correct; stronger than forecast
Bonn's first-game pitching edge and lineup depth appeared in every game. Stuttgart never reached the upset route built around controlling Schäffer starts.
Ni. Rimmel: 14.0 IP, 22 K, 1.29 ERA
Mc. Pearce: .417 AVG, 1 HR, 1.283 OPS
2 vs 7 · original favorite 58.1%
Regensburg 3-0
29-11 runs
Correct; upset alert did not materialize
Cologne kept the first two games close, but Regensburg's pitching structure and lineup depth translated more forcefully than the regular-season offensive warning.
No. Staps: 1.300 OPS, 6 RBI, 5 SB
Ch. Rummel Pedrol: 13.0 IP, 17 K
3 vs 6 · original favorite 75.1%
Hamburg 3-0
16-8 runs
Correct; closest to forecast hierarchy
Mainz compressed the final two games, but Hamburg had more ways to create offense and enough reliable innings to close every upset route.
Qu. Allen: 5-for-10, 4 BB, 1.243 OPS
Iv. Andueza Alvarez: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
4 vs 5 · original favorite 54.4%
Paderborn 3-2
Heidenheim led runs 27-21
Missed winner; correctly priced as a coin flip
Paderborn lost the first two games, then won three straight elimination games. The route was exceptional; a 45.6% underdog advancing was not.
Lu. Rammelmann: 9-for-17, 2 HR, 1.619 OPS
Game 4: Moser and Kloppenburg combined shutout
/ Form shift
Regensburg accelerated. Paderborn survived.
PFI scores roster-wide current form rather than treating every win equally. That distinction matters after a round containing three sweeps and one five-game comeback.
Bonn
Won 3-0
-0.05
Before
5.64
After
5.59
Stuttgart
Lost 0-3
-1.15
Before
6.01
After
4.86
Regensburg
Won 3-0
+0.10
Before
5.51
After
5.61
Cologne
Lost 0-3
-0.77
Before
5.69
After
4.92
Hamburg
Won 3-0
+0.17
Before
4.86
After
5.03
Mainz
Lost 0-3
-0.37
Before
5.05
After
4.68
Heidenheim
Lost 2-3
+0.29
Before
4.95
After
5.24
Paderborn
Won 3-2
+0.16
Before
5.26
After
5.42
/ Semifinal board
Two favorites, two credible upset routes
Both best-of-five series use the official 2-2-1 home sequence. The first-listed club hosts Games 1, 2 and, if necessary, 5.
Best of five · 2-2-1
Pick: Bonn 3-1
Bonn
79.7%
Paderborn
20.3%
Bonn leads every major full-sample indicator and hosts Games 1, 2 and 5. Rimmel is the clearest individual mismatch, while the lineup just punished Stuttgart after the first pitching option.
Underdog route
Paderborn needs the low-scoring Moser-Kloppenburg version of Game 4 to survive Bonn's top starters. Rammelmann gives that route a dangerous offensive ceiling.
Updated indicator
Bonn
Paderborn
Complete record
29-6
22-15
Run differential
+152
+45
TPM
61
59
Team PVI
57.71
52.11
Team wOBA
.360
.332
Staff FIP
4.25
5.37
Updated PFI
5.59
5.42
PFI trend
+0.195
+0.018
Editorial result call
Bonn 3-1
29.5%
Best of five · 2-2-1
Pick: Regensburg 3-1
Regensburg
75.4%
Hamburg
24.6%
Both teams swept, but Regensburg's updated profile is stronger on both sides of the ball. Rummel leads the pitching comparison, and the offense can apply pressure without relying on home runs.
Underdog route
Hamburg needs Allen's elite form and the Andueza Alvarez-Fekete-Spezia run prevention to travel. Regensburg cannot be allowed to turn baserunning into a second source of offense.
Updated indicator
Regensburg
Hamburg
Complete record
25-10
23-12
Run differential
+137
+90
TPM
66
61
Team PVI
57.31
59.14
Team wOBA
.354
.335
Staff FIP
3.94
4.63
Updated PFI
5.61
5.03
PFI trend
+0.094
-0.228
Editorial result call
Regensburg 3-1
28.1%
/ Co-favorite question
Why Regensburg moved above Bonn
The reversal is led by live PFI, not by removing the quarterfinal round and not by the updated season totals alone.
Pre-QF metrics, confirmed field
Direct final: BON 49.9%
Bonn
44.0%
Regensburg
40.4%
Updated results layer
Direct final: BON 48.8%
Bonn
43.2%
Regensburg
41.6%
Updated results plus PFI
Direct final: BON 45.4%
Bonn
40.0%
Regensburg
44.7%
Updated season wOBA and FIP
Direct final: BON 50.6%
Bonn
46.1%
Regensburg
41.0%
Full post-QF update
Direct final: BON 47.0%
Bonn
42.5%
Regensburg
44.4%
Full live update
44.4% to 42.5%
Regensburg PFI rose from 5.51 to 5.61; its trend moved from -0.374 to +0.094.
Bonn PFI eased from 5.64 to 5.59 while retaining the better wOBA, run differential and PVI.
Regensburg still owns the higher TPM and the stronger updated staff FIP, 3.94 to 4.25.
The projected direct final is 53.0% Regensburg to 47.0% Bonn.
The practical read is co-favorites. Regensburg has the live edge; Bonn still owns the stronger frozen pre-playoff prior.
/ Expected bracket
The majority outcome is Bonn vs Regensburg
That final occurs in 60.0% of updated simulations. The other 40.0% is distributed across three pairings involving Hamburg or Paderborn.
Most likely final · 60.0%
Bonn vs Regensburg
Bonn
47.0%
Regensburg
53.0%
Current championship call
Regensburg, by the smallest meaningful margin
01
Guggenberger Legionäre
44.4%
02
Bonn Capitals
42.5%
03
Hamburg Stealers
8.3%
04
Untouchables Paderborn
4.9%
/ Related reports
Follow the playoff model across each stage
The original DBL bracket projection is the direct comparison point; the CEX and Hoofdklasse reports show the same framework in different postseason formats.
DBL pre-quarterfinal
The original eight-team forecast
The corrected pre-round board that priced Bonn first, Regensburg second and Paderborn-Heidenheim as the closest quarterfinal.
Czech Extraliga
One place left entering the final weekend
A qualification and title forecast built around the Czech Extraliga's final regular-season gates.
Netherlands Hoofdklasse
Neptunus leads. Amsterdam is close.
A four-team title projection showing how a smaller postseason field changes championship concentration.
Official quarterfinal box scores and the 2026 DBL statistics feed anchor the review.
DBL semifinal intelligence
Build the series plan before Game 1
Statbase connects opponent-specific probability, pitching depth, lineup shape and live player form so clubs can prepare for the exact best-of-five in front of them.
4 teams
inside the confirmed semifinal field
500,000 paths
through the updated bracket
194 games
in the updated DBL sample