Fourth-place favorite
EAG 42.5%
Eagles holds the extra win, but the other two candidates combine for 57.5%.
/ StatPredict · 500,000 simulations · 5 August 2026
One place. Three teams. One final weekend.
Eagles lead the table. Nuclears own the direct opportunity. Hluboká carries the strongest conditional threat.
The last Czech Extraliga playoff place remains open, while the championship forecast splits first-place certainty from short-series strength: Kotlářka is the likely top seed, but Hroši is the title favorite.
Title favorite
HRO 44.3%
The contender field's best staff FIP gives Hroši the short-series edge.
Most likely final
52.0%
Kotlářka against Hroši appears in more than half of all simulated seasons.
Simulation run
500,000
Paths through 13 remaining games and both best-of-five playoff rounds.
/ Projection map
The cut line is open. The title race points higher.
Three views carry the forecast: qualification versus title equity, complete two-way team shape, and the championship pairings produced by the bracket.
Qualification versus title equity
The last playoff place is split across Eagles, Nuclears and Hluboká. The title forecast points elsewhere, toward Hroši and Kotlářka.
The two-way contender profile
Right is better offense; higher is better run prevention. Dashed lines mark the .345 league wOBA baseline and 4.28 contender-median FIP.
Most likely championship series
Kotlářka-Hroši appears in more than half of all simulations. Every other final begins below 20%.
/ Projection board
One table, two different races
The league wOBA baseline is .345. Higher wOBA is better; lower FIP is better. Records and metrics cover official games through August 2.
| Team | Current | Expected wins | wOBA | FIP | Make playoffs | Reach final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kotlářka Praha The near-certain first seed and the strongest offense, balanced by the weakest contender staff FIP. | 24-8 | 26.6 | .384 | 4.77 | 100% | 70.4% | 36.4% |
Cardion Hroši Brno The title favorite through the best two-way balance and the field's strongest run-prevention profile. | 21-11 | 23.0 | .365 | 3.93 | 100% | 74.0% | 44.3% |
 Draci Brno Almost qualified and good enough to win a semifinal, but not yet level with the top two. | 18-13 | 21.3 | .366 | 4.28 | >99.9% | 26.1% | 9.3% |
Eagles Praha One win ahead with strong pitching, but facing the hardest final-weekend opponent. | 17-15 | 18.0 | .316 | 4.06 | 42.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% |
 Třebíč Nuclears One game back with a direct route and the head-to-head advantage over Eagles. | 16-16 | 17.3 | .347 | 4.31 | 30.6% | 8.5% | 2.6% |
 Sokol Hluboká The hardest starting position, but the most dangerous profile if qualification is secured. | 15-17 | 16.7 | .358 | 4.28 | 26.9% | 11.0% | 4.8% |
/ The cut line
Eagles are the favorite, not the majority outcome
The current fourth-place team leads each rival individually. Together, Nuclears and Hluboká are more likely to take the final place.
17-15
Eagles
42.5%
1 extra win is already secured, but the final series is against 2nd place Hroši. 2 Ws normally close the race; 1 leaves the exact Nuclears-Hluboká result in control.
18.0 expected wins6.2% title if qualified
16-16
Nuclears
30.6%
The cleanest route begins with winning the direct series. These two victories can force an 18-win tie that Nuclears wins on its 3-2 head-to-head record against the Eagles.
17.3 expected wins8.6% title if qualified
15-17
Hluboká
26.9%
The standings deficit is largest, but the model favors Hluboká in all 3 direct games. A sweep creates the safest path and unlocks the strongest conditional contender.
16.7 expected wins17.8% title if qualified
/ Final weekend leverage
Two series control the last place
Eagles must protect a lead against Hroši while Nuclears and Hluboká directly remove wins from each other. The distributions show why fourth remains unstable.
Eagles vs Hroši
Eagles are priced at roughly 32% to 34% in each game and average 0.99 wins across the series.
0 wins30.1%
1 wins44.5%
2 wins21.9%
3 wins3.6%
Nuclears vs Hluboká
Hluboká is favored in each game and holds a 61.0% probability of taking at least two of three.
0 wins18.9%
1 wins42.1%
2 wins31.3%
3 wins7.7%
Tiebreak pressure
36.7%
of simulations finish with a tie at the playoff cut line.
Why equal is not safe
Nuclears and Hluboká each won three of five against Eagles. Head-to-head therefore makes an equal final record dangerous for the current fourth-place club.
/ First place versus the title
Kotlářka owns the season. Hroši owns the short-series edge.
The forecast separates the route to the top seed from the roster shape most likely to survive two best-of-five rounds.
First-seed favorite
Kotlářka Praha
99.9% first
The league's strongest offense
Kotlářka leads the contender field at .384 wOBA and can attack through Červenka, Prejda, Morgan, Blažek, Velázquez and Křeček rather than one isolated star.
Series question
The 4.77 staff FIP is the weakest of the six contenders, which lowers championship equity to 36.4% despite the likely home advantage.
Championship favorite
Cardion Hroši Brno
44.3% title
The most balanced playoff profile
Hroši pairs a .365 team wOBA with a 3.93 staff FIP. Johnson anchors the lineup while Malconian, Pacal and Castillo distribute credible innings across a series.
Series question
The neutralized single-game edge over Kotlářka is only 52.7%, but that narrow advantage compounds across a five-game final.
/ Most likely bracket
One semifinal is fixed. The other waits on fourth place.
The projected seeds make Hroši-Draci almost certain, while Kotlářka draws whichever club survives the cut-line race.
Semifinal board
Hroši vs Draci
98.9%
Kotlářka vs Eagles
41.5%
Kotlářka vs Nuclears
30.6%
Kotlářka vs Hluboká
26.8%
Leading championship series
Kotlářka
Hroši
52.0%
The most likely final also captures the league's central contrast: the strongest offense against the most trustworthy contender pitching staff.
/ Contender files
What each club carries into the decision
The same team metrics can create very different paths depending on schedule position, tiebreak leverage and the demands of a five-game series.
Kotlářka
The regular-season standard
Kotlářka's 24-8 record, +83 run differential and .384 team wOBA make first place almost certain and create the clearest route to the final.
Travels well
The lineup does not depend on one hitter, even with Martin Červenka producing a league-best offensive season.
Series risk
A 4.77 staff FIP is the weakest among the six contenders and leaves a short-series pressure point.
Červenka .567 wOBA · Prejda .503 · Křeček 4.05 FIP
Hroši
The staff built for five games
Hroši combine a .365 offense with the contender field's best staff FIP. That balance lifts the second-place team above the likely first seed in title probability.
Travels well
Malconian, Pacal and Castillo provide the most trustworthy spread of postseason innings.
Series risk
The direct edge over Kotlářka is narrow rather than dominant and must survive a likely Draci semifinal first.
Johnson .528 wOBA · Malconian 3.13 FIP · Pacal 3.61
Draci
Competitive, not yet a co-favorite
Draci are balanced on both sides of the ball and almost certain to qualify, but the projected Hroši semifinal suppresses their title path.
Travels well
Prokop and Winkler can create enough offense while Moncada and Ondra control the front of the staff.
Series risk
Winning a high-scoring best-of-five against Hroši asks too much of the profile.
Prokop .495 wOBA · Winkler .458 · Moncada 3.42 FIP
Eagles
The lead is real, the schedule is not friendly
Eagles enter fourth and have won four straight, but their final three games are against Hroši and their offense ranks last among the contenders.
Travels well
A 4.06 staff FIP, Uemura and Mrakovcic can turn the weekend into low-margin games.
Series risk
The .316 team wOBA creates little protection if the pitching plan slips once.
Uemura .452 wOBA · Mrakovcic 3.12 FIP · Galaska 6.76 PFI
Nuclears
The direct route and the tiebreak
Nuclears arrive after sweeping Hroši and can pass Eagles by winning the direct series against Hluboká while using a 3-2 head-to-head advantage.
Travels well
Bracamonte leads a dangerous top order, while Hlouch and Lima give the rotation playoff quality.
Series risk
The staff becomes thinner behind the first two arms across a complete three-game weekend.
Bracamonte .493 wOBA · Hlouch 2.93 FIP · Lima 89 K
Hluboká
The conditional dark horse
Hluboká starts two games behind Eagles, yet owns the deepest underlying profile of the three fourth-place candidates.
Travels well
Ochoa, Minařík and Galindo can carry a five-game series if the club reaches the bracket.
Series risk
A 2-1 weekend may still require a very specific Eagles result; the standings deficit is unforgiving.
Mužík 7.24 PFI · Ochoa 2.95 FIP · Minařík 3.22
/ Final call
A clear first seed, a narrow title favorite, no safe fourth-place pick
That is the complete shape of the 2026 Extraliga forecast before the final regular-season weekend.
Regular-season winner
Kotlářka Praha
99.9% first
Fourth-place favorite
Eagles Praha
42.5%
Championship favorite
Cardion Hroši Brno
44.3%
Most likely final
Kotlářka vs Hroši
52.0%
Conditional dark horse
Sokol Hluboká
17.8% title if qualified
/ Related reports
Follow the model across European playoff formats
The DBL, Hoofdklasse and France forecasts show how qualification structure changes the meaning of team strength.
Germany DBL
Eight teams, four best-of-five quarterfinals
Bonn leads the route, Regensburg carries the deepest staff and Cologne is the dangerous seventh seed.
Netherlands HDK
Neptunus leads. Amsterdam is close.
Four confirmed playoff teams and 500,000 paths through the final weekend and postseason.
France Division 1
Six teams, four places, one championship
Qualification risk and championship equity separate across the final month in France.
CEX postseason intelligence
Prepare for the series before the final place is settled
Statbase connects schedule leverage, tiebreak paths, pitching depth and current player form so clubs can plan the decisive weekend and the best-of-five that follows it.
13 games
left in the regular-season model
3 teams
competing for one playoff place
500,000 paths
through the complete postseason