Title favorite
BON 32.2%
Bonn still has the strongest complete profile, now with credible first-round risk.
/ StatPredict · 500,000 simulations · 3 August 2026
Bonn is the favorite. Stuttgart makes the bracket tighter.
Eight teams. Four best-of-five quarterfinals. No club reaches a 50% championship probability.
The corrected bracket puts eighth-seeded Stuttgart against Bonn. The Capitals lead at 32.2%, but 67.8% of the title probability sits with the rest of the field.
Closest challenger
REG 27.2%
Regensburg's pitching depth travels across every best-of-five round.
Dangerous lower seed
COC 15.6%
Cologne's seventh seed hides the field's strongest run differential per game.
Closest quarterfinal
54.4 / 45.6
Heidenheim-Paderborn is almost a coin flip before rotation decisions.
/ Projection map
Bonn leads. The first round is no formality.
Three views carry the forecast: title equity, complete two-way performance and the probability of surviving the quarterfinals.
Final and championship equity
Bonn leads the corrected forecast, but Stuttgart's credible first-round upset path redistributes title equity across the bracket.
The two-way field
Right is better offense; higher is better run prevention. Dashed lines mark the .320 wOBA and 5.20 FIP league baselines.
Quarterfinal series forecast
Bonn has the strongest first-round edge, but Stuttgart still advances in more than one quarter of simulations. Two other series remain live upset gates.
/ Championship board
The seed line does not describe the field
Records and team metrics use all 180 official games completed through August 2, not only the bracket-stage standings.
| Team | Seed | All games | Runs | wOBA | FIP | Reach final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bonn Capitals BON · TPM 61 | #1 | 26-6 | 265-129 | .358 | 4.47 | 55.4% | 32.2% |
Guggenberger Legionäre REG · TPM 66 | #2 | 22-10 | 235-116 | .351 | 3.98 | 44.2% | 27.2% |
Cologne Cardinals COC · TPM 59 | #7 | 19-9 | 233-90 | .381 | 4.33 | 28.8% | 15.6% |
 Hamburg Stealers HHS · TPM 61 | #3 | 20-12 | 224-142 | .340 | 4.65 | 23.7% | 9.7% |
 Stuttgart Reds STU · TPM 60 | #8 | 16-12 | 185-148 | .319 | 5.34 | 15.7% | 5.6% |
Heidenheim Heideköpfe HDH · TPM 64 | #4 | 21-11 | 238-201 | .344 | 5.07 | 16.6% | 5.5% |
Untouchables Paderborn UNT · TPM 59 | #5 | 19-13 | 208-157 | .338 | 5.40 | 12.3% | 3.6% |
 Mainz Athletics MAI · TPM 58 | #6 | 12-20 | 128-156 | .267 | 4.76 | 3.2% | 0.6% |
/ Quarterfinals
Four series, no automatic advance
The series forecast converts the neutral single-game matchup into a best-of-five probability.
1 vs 8
Best of five
Bonn
72.2%
Stuttgart
27.8%
No direct 2026 games
Bonn has the deeper lineup, but Stuttgart can change the series when Jo. Schäffer starts.
2 vs 7
Best of five
Regensburg
58.1%
Cologne
41.9%
No direct 2026 games
The bracket's primary upset alert: Regensburg's pitching depth against Cologne's full-season output.
3 vs 6
Best of five
Hamburg
75.1%
Mainz
24.9%
Hamburg 3-1 · runs 17-14
Hamburg owns the deeper lineup, while Mainz must make the series entirely about run prevention.
4 vs 5
Best of five
Heidenheim
54.4%
Paderborn
45.6%
2-2 · Paderborn led runs 33-32
The closest series on the board. Rotation order and availability can realistically reverse the favorite.
/ Bracket effect
Stuttgart cuts Bonn's path to the final
Championship probability measures the whole bracket. It is not the same as direct series strength once two clubs meet.
The corrected route
Bonn reaches the final 55.4% of the time
Potential semifinal
vs Heidenheim
75.3%
Potential semifinal
vs Paderborn
78.6%
Bonn remains strongly favored against either potential semifinal opponent, but Stuttgart's 27.8% upset path removes the near-automatic first round assumed previously.
Most likely final · 24.5%
Bonn vs Regensburg
Bonn
49.5%
Regensburg
50.5%
Regensburg is a marginal direct-series favorite. Bonn leads the championship board because it is much more likely to arrive at this matchup.
/ Contender files
What travels through a best-of-five
The forecast separates route advantage from the tools that remain useful when the bracket compresses into one series.
Bonn
The favorite has an opening-round test
Bonn went 26-6 across the full model sample and outscored opponents 265-129. Its 32.2% title probability leads the field without turning the first round into a formality.
Travels well
A 55.4% path to the final, the field's highest Elo and the league's strongest qualified pitcher.
Series risk
The most likely final against Regensburg is effectively even once Bonn gets there.
Rimmel 2.66 FIP · Pearce .452 wOBA · Bäumer .451
Regensburg
The staff built for five games
Regensburg carries the field's highest TPM and its deepest group of credible series innings. That structure keeps the title forecast within five points of Bonn.
Travels well
Rummel Pedrol, Moulin, Tavarez and Fischer all finished at 4.00 FIP or better.
Series risk
Cologne is far stronger than a typical seventh seed and can end the route immediately.
Moulin 3.24 FIP · Rummel Pedrol 3.33 · Sasagawa .443 wOBA
Cologne
The seed hides the profile
Cologne scored 233 runs, allowed 90 and produced the best run differential per game in the playoff field. The model treats the Cardinals as a contender, not a routine underdog.
Travels well
A .381 team wOBA, positive PFI trend and several independent lineup threats.
Series risk
The first round starts against the deepest pitching structure in the bracket.
Stattler .509 wOBA · Niggenaber .429 · Freisberg 3.83 FIP
Stuttgart
The eighth seed is live
Stuttgart went 16-12 across the reconciled 2026 sample, scored 185 runs and allowed 148. A 6.01 team PFI and +0.70 trend make the Reds much stronger than a routine eighth seed.
Travels well
Jo. Schäffer's 3.80 FIP and two .417-plus wOBA hitters create a credible upset route.
Series risk
Bonn's deeper lineup gains leverage when the series moves beyond Stuttgart's first starter.
Schäffer 3.80 FIP · Beck .424 wOBA · Bull .417
/ Finals map
The top three final pairings all include Bonn
Bonn remains the most frequent finalist, but Stuttgart's corrected place in the bracket distributes more probability across the field.
01
Bonn vs Regensburg
24.5%
02
Bonn vs Cologne
16.0%
03
Bonn vs Hamburg
13.1%
04
Heidenheim vs Regensburg
7.3%
05
Regensburg vs Stuttgart
6.9%
06
Regensburg vs Paderborn
5.5%
The bracket read
67.8%
Combined probability that the 2026 champion comes from outside Bonn.
Regensburg
Pitching depth
27.2%
Cologne
Lower-seed pressure
15.6%
Rest of field
Five-team volatility
25.0%
/ Final read
Depth, lower-seed pressure and a live eighth seed
Those are the forces shaping the corrected 2026 DBL postseason forecast before the quarterfinals begin.
Bonn
The strongest complete profile in the field, now with a credible opening-round test.
32.2%
Regensburg
The deepest pitching group and a virtually even direct final matchup with Bonn.
27.2%
Cologne
A seventh seed with the field's best run differential per game and top team wOBA.
15.6%
Hamburg
A strong first-round favorite whose route tightens against Regensburg or Cologne.
9.7%
Stuttgart
A live eighth seed with the field's best current team PFI and a series-changing first starter.
5.6%
Heidenheim
Top-end offense gives Heidenheim the smallest edge in the closest quarterfinal.
5.5%
Paderborn
A balanced offense and stronger recent form keep the 4-5 series near a coin flip.
3.6%
Mainz
Pitching can compress the series, but the lowest team wOBA leaves little margin.
0.6%
/ Related reports
Follow StatPredict across domestic and European brackets
The Hoofdklasse projection and BCL Europe group review provide the closest comparison points.
DBL postseason intelligence
Prepare for the series, not only the seed
Statbase connects opponent-specific series probability, pitching depth, lineup shape and current player form so clubs can plan the best-of-five before Game 1.
8 teams
inside the confirmed playoff bracket
500,000 paths
through every best-of-five round
4 series
to solve before the semifinals