French Division 1 / Finals forecastAt 1–1,
Savigny becomes
the favorite.
Rouen's deeper form base creates the opening advantage. A split across the first weekend sends every remaining game to Savigny and moves the Lions to 51.9%.
The finalists split four regular-season meetings. The separation now comes from Rouen's probable rotation, its 18–0 lead across shared PFI depth slots and the pressure of a possible same-day Game 5.
Explore the forecast
Win French Series
Series start: Rouen 56.6%, Savigny 43.4%.
Rouen's current form and probable pitching plan create a real edge, but no exact series result reaches 23%.
No exact result reaches 23%.
Rouen is the series favorite, but the outcome distribution remains broad. A four-game finish is only 0.8 points more likely than a decisive fifth game.
A split is the most likely result in Rouen.
Games 1 and 2 produce three very different series positions. The central branch is not a continuation of Rouen's opening edge; it hands Savigny the remaining home schedule.
Chance of reaching this state
Chance of reaching this state
Chance of reaching this state
Mercadier creates Rouen's largest single-game advantage.
The probable plan makes Rouen strongest in Games 2 and 4. Savigny regains the better number in its home games behind Peña and in a possible staff game five.
JFL means joueur formé localement, a locally trained player. FFBS requires at least one JFL starting pitcher across each two- or three-game program, plus a minimum of seven JFL innings in a double program or ten in a triple program.
Probable pitching plans, not announced starters. Percentages show each club's chance of winning that game under this rotation map.
Most of the change comes from the projected Mercadier–Coste games. Across plausible rotation variants, Rouen remains between 55.5% and 57.7%.
Holding Peña for Game 5 changes Savigny by half a point or less.
Across three tested second-weekend orders per club, the most resilient Savigny option is Orozco–Coste–Peña. It is a credible alternative, not an obvious correction.
Protected order means the starter sequence that retains the most value against the opponent's tested choices. It is not an announced rotation.
Rouen leads all 18 shared form slots.
The finalist profiles are close at the top and separate as the comparison moves deeper. The next tests show where that depth changes the title probability most.
Rouen leads at every comparable roster position.
This is a ranked form comparison, not a position-by-position claim. It measures how long each club's current performance level holds as the player pool expands.
Form stays strong deep into the roster.
Rouen swept La Rochelle 2-0 and outscored the Seahawks 15-8. Mercadier's complete game kept the bullpen untouched in Game 2, while a .442 semifinal wOBA arrived from a lineup with multiple live contributors.
Creates traffic & converts close games.
Savigny survived a three-game semifinal with 23 walks, nine stolen bases and a four-run eighth inning in the decider. The Lions went 4-1 in one-run games this season and now hold the final's last three home dates.
Mercadier is the only five-point pitching lever.
Each bar measures the change in title probability when one planned assignment or one hitter's availability is replaced with the club baseline. These are sensitivity tests, not injury forecasts.
Savigny's value is more concentrated, despite Rouen's top-two pitching load.
Higher means more of the measurable roster value sits with fewer contributors. The index describes concentration; it does not predict injury or availability.
SAV 40.5ROU 37.1
SAV 79.9ROU 88.0
SAV 74.9ROU 52.1
Rouen cleared the semifinal forecast. Savigny overturned ours.
The model's view changed as the field narrowed. This is the full record: the title probabilities at each saved checkpoint, the semifinal call that held, and the one that missed.
July playoff-race forecast
Savigny held the stronger title position; Rouen still had to secure a Final Four place.
End of regular season
Rouen became the title favorite. This exact final was already priced 52.7-47.3 for Rouen.
After both semifinal openers
Rouen-Savigny became the single most likely final before either semifinal was complete.
Confirmed final
The field is resolved, so these are head-to-head series probabilities rather than league title odds.
One call held. One did not. The final pairing still became the model's leading scenario before it was confirmed.
- Forecast
- 82.1% to advance
- Live update
- 92.8% after Game 1
- Actual
- Won 2-0
Rouen completed the projected sweep over La Rochelle.
- Forecast
- MTP 51.7% to advance
- Live update
- Run-based branch favored SAV
- Actual
- Won 2-1
Savigny overturned the calibrated call. The 8.8-6.8 Game 3 model finished one run from the actual 8-6 and matched the margin.
Savigny produced the better plate appearances in a 2–2 season series.
Rouen won the four-game aggregate by one run and committed eight fewer errors. Savigny reached base with more quality. The direct meetings support a close final without erasing the current rotation and depth evidence.
Each club won twice
One run across four games
Savigny created the better plate appearances
Rouen converted the cleaner defensive series
Mercadier against Savigny
Eight innings, two hits, no walks and 10 strikeouts in his only regular-season start against the Lions. His projected Games 2 and 4 are Rouen's largest game-level edges.
Peña's strikeout-walk split
Peña allowed one earned run in 13 head-to-head innings and struck out 20, but 11 walks lifted his opponent-specific FIP to 4.44.
The possible same-day decider
Game 5 begins three hours after Game 4. JFL innings, bulk relief and recovery planning can matter more than either club's nominal ace.
Savigny's home finish
The Lions can turn a road split into a 51.9% series position because Games 3, 4 and 5 are scheduled in Savigny.
Rouen in four.
Rouen's 18–0 depth edge and the projected Mercadier matchups make 3–1 the leading exact result at 22.9%. The call is deliberately narrow: a 1–1 start moves the favorite to Savigny, and Game 5 would favor the Lions 53.2% under the probable staff plans.
Plan the innings
after the ace exits.
Bring probable starters, JFL workload and opponent form into one preparation view. Statbase helps clubs test the exact roster decisions that become decisive across a compressed finals weekend.
- Rotation planning
- Map starter and bulk-relief scenarios game by game
- JFL workload
- Track locally trained innings before the schedule compresses
- Opponent form
- Connect live player evidence to the next matchup