Champion call
Hroši
The No. 1 pre-event title profile converted at 52.7%.
/ CONFEDERATION CUP / TOURNAMENT REVIEW / JUNE 15-20 / 2026
StatPredict found the champion. The live layer explained the tournament.
Hroši Brno began as the 52.7% title favorite, reached the exact final StatPredict identified as most likely, and beat Brasschaat 11-4. The full audit finished 9-for-11 on winners. More importantly, it showed where tournament intelligence can help before a result becomes obvious.
Published model review
June 21, 2026
All 11 official games, including the June 20 final.
Pre-event forecast audited against final results and standings.
Live updates reviewed as decision support, not hindsight.
Exact final
35.0%
Brasschaat-Hroši was the modal pairing before the first pitch.
Winner calls
9-for-11
81.8% across ten round-robin games and the final.
Overall Brier
0.142
Probability accuracy across the full 11-game event.
/ The final
The replay was information. The championship was a different game.
Hroši's Friday loss did not disappear from the model. It received reduced weight because the official usage data showed a protected pitching plan and a rested batting core.
Friday / G9 replay
BrasschaatBRA / BD111-5
HrošiHRO / CEXAll five previously used Hroši pitchers were protected.
Four of five top Day 4 bats were absent.
Nine runs came against one reserve/two-way arm.
Rotation-aware read
35%
of the replay signal entered the final update.
HRO 61.9%
Saturday / championship
HrošiHRO / CEX11-4
BrasschaatBRA / BD1Lukáš Pacal: 5.0 IP, three hits, one earned run.
Hroši scored six runs by the third and finished with 15 hits.
Brasschaat committed six errors; only eight of 11 runs were earned.
/ Original vision vs reality
The tournament-level structure held
The strongest result was not one correct score. It was the complete hierarchy: champion, finalist pair, top-two set, and final favorite.
Champion
Forecast
Hroši No. 1 / 52.7%
Reality
Hroši champion
Most likely final
Forecast
Brasschaat vs Hroši / 35.0%
Reality
Brasschaat vs Hroši
Final favorite
Forecast
Hroši 63.7%
Reality
Hroši won 11-4
Predicted top two
Forecast
Hroši + Brasschaat
Reality
Brasschaat + Hroši
Original final score
Forecast
HRO 7.2 - BRA 5.4
Reality
HRO 11 - BRA 4
Day 5 adjusted final
Forecast
HRO 61.9% / 7.1-5.5
Reality
HRO 11 - BRA 4
/ Game-by-game receipt
Nine winner calls landed across six tournament days
The two misses were different. Karlovac-Savigny turned on a bottom-ninth grand slam; G9 paired Brasschaat's real power with a heavily rotated Hroši deployment.
D1 / G1Hit
RouenROU / FD1vsBrasschaatBRA / BD1Favorite
BRA 52.1%
Actual
BRA 5 - ROU 4
Projection: BRA 6.3 - ROU 5.8
D1 / G2Miss
SavignySAV / FD1vs
KarlovacBOK / CROFavorite
SAV 53.6%
Actual
BOK 7 - SAV 3
Projection: SAV 5.2 - BOK 4.4
D2 / G3Hit
HrošiHRO / CEXvsRouenROU / FD1Favorite
HRO 66.0%
Actual
HRO 5 - ROU 4
Projection: HRO 6.0 - ROU 4.3
D2 / G4Hit
BrasschaatBRA / BD1vsSavignySAV / FD1Favorite
BRA 71.9%
Actual
BRA 19 - SAV 8
Projection: BRA 8.3 - SAV 5.3
D3 / G5Hit
SavignySAV / FD1vsRouenROU / FD1Favorite
ROU 68.6%
Actual
ROU 22 - SAV 7
Projection: ROU 6.6 - SAV 4.5
D3 / G6Hit
HrošiHRO / CEXvsKarlovacBOK / CROFavorite
HRO 83.2%
Actual
HRO 14 - BOK 4
Projection: HRO 6.9 - BOK 2.8
D4 / G7Hit
SavignySAV / FD1vsHrošiHRO / CEXFavorite
HRO 80.6%
Actual
HRO 7 - SAV 2
Projection: HRO 8.1 - SAV 4.0
D4 / G8Hit
KarlovacBOK / CROvsBrasschaatBRA / BD1Favorite
BRA 72.6%
Actual
BRA 7 - BOK 4
Projection: BRA 6.9 - BOK 3.8
D5 / G9Miss
HrošiHRO / CEXvsBrasschaatBRA / BD1Favorite
HRO 63.3%
Actual
BRA 11 - HRO 5
Projection: HRO 7.1 - BRA 5.5
D5 / G10Hit
KarlovacBOK / CROvsRouenROU / FD1Favorite
ROU 72.5%
Actual
ROU 2 - BOK 1
Projection: ROU 5.6 - BOK 3.2
D6 / FHit
HrošiHRO / CEXvsBrasschaatBRA / BD1Favorite
HRO 61.9%
Actual
HRO 11 - BRA 4
Projection: HRO 7.1 - BRA 5.5
| Game | Matchup | Favorite | Projection | Actual | Prob. | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 / G1 | vs | BRA | BRA 6.3 - ROU 5.8 | BRA 5 - ROU 4 | 52.1% | Hit |
| D1 / G2 | vs | SAV | SAV 5.2 - BOK 4.4 | BOK 7 - SAV 3 | 53.6% | Miss |
| D2 / G3 | vs | HRO | HRO 6.0 - ROU 4.3 | HRO 5 - ROU 4 | 66.0% | Hit |
| D2 / G4 | vs | BRA | BRA 8.3 - SAV 5.3 | BRA 19 - SAV 8 | 71.9% | Hit |
| D3 / G5 | vs | ROU | ROU 6.6 - SAV 4.5 | ROU 22 - SAV 7 | 68.6% | Hit |
| D3 / G6 | vs | HRO | HRO 6.9 - BOK 2.8 | HRO 14 - BOK 4 | 83.2% | Hit |
| D4 / G7 | vs | HRO | HRO 8.1 - SAV 4.0 | HRO 7 - SAV 2 | 80.6% | Hit |
| D4 / G8 | vs | BRA | BRA 6.9 - BOK 3.8 | BRA 7 - BOK 4 | 72.6% | Hit |
| D5 / G9 | vs | HRO | HRO 7.1 - BRA 5.5 | BRA 11 - HRO 5 | 63.3% | Miss |
| D5 / G10 | vs | ROU | ROU 5.6 - BOK 3.2 | ROU 2 - BOK 1 | 72.5% | Hit |
| D6 / F | vs | HRO | HRO 7.1 - BRA 5.5 | HRO 11 - BRA 4 | 61.9% | Hit |
/ Daily record
The model stabilized after the opening day
Days 2-4 produced six straight directional hits. Day 5 required the live layer to distinguish a result from its likely transfer value.
Day 1
50%1-for-2
One close favorite landed; Karlovac flipped Savigny with a bottom-ninth grand slam.
Day 2
100%2-for-2
Hroši and Brasschaat both confirmed their top-two paths.
Day 3
100%2-for-2
The model caught both favorites while the score environment exploded.
Day 4
100%2-for-2
G8 finished only 0.3 combined runs from the original score projection.
Day 5
50%1-for-2
Rouen landed; Brasschaat beat a heavily rotated Hroši deployment.
Final
100%1-for-1
The original favorite and rotation-aware favorite both became champion.
/ Calibration audit
The hierarchy was stronger than the score model
StatPredict understood who was strong more reliably than it understood how violent several games would become. That distinction matters when deciding how to use the output.
Rank correlation
0.80
Predicted and actual five-team order by Spearman correlation.
Expected wins MAE
0.694
Average error in projected round-robin wins.
Team-score MAE
3.28
Exact team scores remained the weaker layer.
Total-runs MAE
5.70
Several games moved far outside the baseline run environment.
What the numbers actually support
Use the model confidently for relative strength, route probability, matchup direction, and scenario planning. Use exact scores as game-shape estimates, not promises. Eleven games are also too small a sample to advertise 81.8% as a universal long-run hit rate.
Margin MAE
4.28 runs
/ How StatPredict can help
The useful product is an updating decision map
A pick is the visible output. The operational value sits underneath it: route leverage, workload, opponent context, and the speed of the update.
Before the event
Map qualification routes before standings create urgency
The model put Hroši and Brasschaat in the top-two set and priced their pairing as the most likely final. Staff can identify which games carry disproportionate route leverage before the tournament starts.
70.4% final-slot tie rate in simulations
During the event
Separate a scoreboard shock from a repeatable matchup change
G9 is the practical example. Brasschaat's offense deserved respect, but Hroši's protected staff and rested core meant the 11-5 score should not receive normal-strength weight.
35% result weight after the usage audit
Player decisions
Identify performance that travels beyond team results
Event PFI kept Steven De Lannoy at No. 1 despite Brasschaat losing the final and recognized Rouen players after a third-place finish. That helps scouting, selection, and recruitment avoid standings bias.
81 players scored / 60 Team of Cup eligible
Staff communication
Turn uncertainty into explicit, reviewable assumptions
Probabilities, workload totals, tiebreak simulations, and adjustment weights give coaches and analysts a shared language. The assumptions can be challenged before the plan is executed.
25,000 tournament simulations
/ Event PFI
Steven De Lannoy produced the tournament's strongest player signal
Event PFI uses recency-weighted game impact across the full competition. It measures individual performance independently of final team position.
#1De Lannoy Steven
BrasschaatBRA / BD1PFI
9.36
Avg
9.41
Best
10.00
Games
4
10 / 10 / 7.7 / 10
#2TAIDO Yui
RouenROU / FD1PFI
7.74
Avg
7.63
Best
8.49
Games
2
6.8 / 8.5
#3JACQUES Adam
HrošiHRO / CEXPFI
7.48
Avg
7.52
Best
9.82
Games
4
6.3 / 8.2 / 9.8 / 5.8
#4VISSAC Martin
RouenROU / FD1PFI
7.47
Avg
7.36
Best
8.99
Games
4
8.8 / 5.1 / 6.6 / 9.0
#5De Wolf Thomas
BrasschaatBRA / BD1PFI
7.34
Avg
7.56
Best
10.00
Games
5
7.1 / 8.5 / 7.4 / 10 / 4.8
#6POSPÍŠIL Jan
HrošiHRO / CEXPFI
7.18
Avg
6.80
Best
8.75
Games
4
4.2 / 7.7 / 6.6 / 8.8
#7SOBOTKA Daniel
HrošiHRO / CEXPFI
7.17
Avg
7.17
Best
7.17
Games
1
7.2
#8DELIYANNIS Harry
BrasschaatBRA / BD1PFI
7.14
Avg
7.65
Best
10.00
Games
5
7.1 / 10 / 9.4 / 7.8 / 3.9
#9JOHNSON Ryan
HrošiHRO / CEXPFI
7.04
Avg
7.47
Best
9.26
Games
4
8.5 / 9.3 / 7.4 / 4.7
#10Ballardini Lino
BrasschaatBRA / BD1PFI
6.84
Avg
7.23
Best
8.58
Games
5
8.6 / 8.2 / 7.1 / 7.0 / 5.3
De Lannoy Steven
BrasschaatBRA / BD1PFI
9.36
Avg
9.41
Best
10.00
Games
4
10 / 10 / 7.7 / 10
TAIDO Yui
RouenROU / FD1PFI
7.74
Avg
7.63
Best
8.49
Games
2
6.8 / 8.5
JACQUES Adam
HrošiHRO / CEXPFI
7.48
Avg
7.52
Best
9.82
Games
4
6.3 / 8.2 / 9.8 / 5.8
VISSAC Martin
RouenROU / FD1PFI
7.47
Avg
7.36
Best
8.99
Games
4
8.8 / 5.1 / 6.6 / 9.0
De Wolf Thomas
BrasschaatBRA / BD1PFI
7.34
Avg
7.56
Best
10.00
Games
5
7.1 / 8.5 / 7.4 / 10 / 4.8
POSPÍŠIL Jan
HrošiHRO / CEXPFI
7.18
Avg
6.80
Best
8.75
Games
4
4.2 / 7.7 / 6.6 / 8.8
SOBOTKA Daniel
HrošiHRO / CEXPFI
7.17
Avg
7.17
Best
7.17
Games
1
7.2
DELIYANNIS Harry
BrasschaatBRA / BD1PFI
7.14
Avg
7.65
Best
10.00
Games
5
7.1 / 10 / 9.4 / 7.8 / 3.9
JOHNSON Ryan
HrošiHRO / CEXPFI
7.04
Avg
7.47
Best
9.26
Games
4
8.5 / 9.3 / 7.4 / 4.7
Ballardini Lino
BrasschaatBRA / BD1PFI
6.84
Avg
7.23
Best
8.58
Games
5
8.6 / 8.2 / 7.1 / 7.0 / 5.3
/ Team of the Cup
A cross-league team built from verified tournament roles
Position players required two games and eight plate appearances. Pitchers required two appearances or six innings. Selection followed Event PFI, then tournament-position fit.
Position players
MEGUMI Kento
Rouen / ROUPFI
6.29
C
18 PA / 4 G
De Wolf Thomas
Brasschaat / BRAPFI
7.34
1B
25 PA / 5 G
JACQUES Adam
Hroši / HROPFI
7.48
2B
19 PA / 4 G
POSPÍŠIL Jan
Hroši / HROPFI
7.18
3B
21 PA / 4 G
DELIYANNIS Harry
Brasschaat / BRAPFI
7.14
SS
30 PA / 5 G
De Lannoy Steven
Brasschaat / BRAPFI
9.36
OF
21 PA / 4 G
VISSAC Martin
Rouen / ROUPFI
7.47
OF
17 PA / 4 G
ONDROUŠEK Daniel
Hroši / HROPFI
6.12
OF
12 PA / 3 G
JOHNSON Ryan
Hroši / HROPFI
7.04
DH
20 PA / 4 G
Pitching staff
TAIDO Yui
Rouen / ROUPFI
7.74
P1
13 IP / 2 G
Castillo Jesus
Hroši / HROPFI
6.77
P2
11 IP / 2 G
ITO Ryusuke
Rouen / ROUPFI
6.59
P3
11 IP / 2 G
PEREIRA TOVAR Jose Gregorio
Karlovac / BOKPFI
6.51
P4
7 IP / 1 G
PENA PEREIRA Adrian
Savigny / SAVPFI
6.08
P5
11.1 IP / 2 G
MALCONIAN Matthew
Hroši / HROPFI
6.03
P6
4.2 IP / 2 G
/ Tournament verdict
The model worked best where decisions are hardest
Exact scores are easy to judge and difficult to predict. Tournament hierarchy, route pressure, workload context, and player impact are less visible, but more actionable.
What held
Champion, exact finalists, top-two set, final favorite, 0.80 rank correlation, and nine winner calls.
What needs work
Run dispersion and exact scores. The 3.28 team-score MAE shows the next modeling priority clearly.
What teams gain
Earlier scenario planning, clearer workload tradeoffs, faster opponent updates, and player evaluation beyond the standings.
/ Sources and method
Official results, published forecasts, and one consistent audit
All 11 official WBSC Europe box scores were scored against the published StatPredict framework. Event PFI and Team of the Cup use the same European-normalized implementation applied throughout the event.
Official final: Hroši Brno at BrasschaatPublished pre-event StatPredict forecastDay 5 tactical and rotation-aware updateOfficial tournament schedule and results
Model audit: StatPredict v2, 25,000 tournament simulations and 12,000 game simulations, league-environment translation across CEX, FD1, BD1, and CRO, no host rating bonus. Tactical classifications are inferences from official usage data. This review does not present an 11-game sample as a universal accuracy estimate.
Tournament intelligence
Use the probabilities before the decisions become obvious
Statbase gives clubs and federations the working layer behind this review: opponent and route modeling, workload tracking, rotation-aware updates, player-form context, and staff-ready reporting.