/ CONFEDERATION CUP / FORECAST REPORT / JUNE 15-20 / 2026

Hroši Brno lead a tiebreak-heavy five-team board

StatPredict v2 makes Hroši Brno the correct favorite after league-environment calibration, but this is not a closed tournament. Brasschaat carry the main power alternative, Rouen have a credible final lane, and the round robin is built to produce tiebreak pressure.

Published model run

June 13, 2026

Round robin: June 15-19. Final: Game 11, top two, June 20.

Schedule source: WBSC Europe schedule PDF, imported into the Statbase model pipeline.

25,000 tournament simulations with head-to-head and TQB-style tiebreak handling.

Hroši title equity

52.6%

Favorite, not a lock

Final-slot tiebreak

70.4%

At least one appears

Multi-team tie

32.8%

Round-robin volatility

French title share

22.2%

Rouen plus Savigny

HrošiHRO / CEX

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

RouenROU / FD1

SavignySAV / FD1

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Home Reports hub Official teams Official schedule

Forecast board

The model in one table

The board is ordered by title equity, not raw TPM. StatPredict v2 translates domestic league environments, prices every scheduled game, then lets the tournament structure decide how often each team reaches the final.

Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX#1

Title

52.6%

Final

78.2%

SP-v2 PFI

61.6

2.93

Best prevention index in the field and the clearest top-two profile, but more than a quarter of the title path is still exposed to one final.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1#2

Title

22.8%

Final

52.4%

SP-v2 PFI

61.5

2.33

The main alternative to Hroši. The attack still travels, but the Belgian run environment demands a conservative translation.

Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1#3

Title

19.1%

Final

46.1%

SP-v2 PFI

60.5

2.23

Rouen sit close enough to the top pair to matter. Their path asks for one premium result, most likely against Hroši or Karlovac.

Lions de SavignySAV / FD1#4

Title

3.1%

Final

13.1%

SP-v2 PFI

60.1

1.32

The field's loudest translated attack, but the prevention and defense bands make the round-robin route unusually narrow.

Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO#5

Title

2.3%

Final

10.1%

SP-v2 PFI

60.0

1.18

The host has enough prevention to drag games into tiebreak territory, but this run does not add a separate home-field rating bonus.

Rank	Team	Title	Final	xW	TPM	SP TPM	SP-v2 PFI	Off / Prev	Adj.	Read
#1	Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX	52.6%	78.2%	2.93	62	62.0	61.6	59.0 / 66.0	0.0	Best prevention index in the field and the clearest top-two profile, but more than a quarter of the title path is still exposed to one final.
#2	Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1	22.8%	52.4%	2.33	63	60.7	61.5	62.7 / 60.7	-2.3	The main alternative to Hroši. The attack still travels, but the Belgian run environment demands a conservative translation.
#3	Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1	19.1%	46.1%	2.23	61	61.0	60.5	60.0 / 64.0	0.0	Rouen sit close enough to the top pair to matter. Their path asks for one premium result, most likely against Hroši or Karlovac.
#4	Lions de SavignySAV / FD1	3.1%	13.1%	1.32	59	59.0	60.1	63.0 / 58.0	0.0	The field's loudest translated attack, but the prevention and defense bands make the round-robin route unusually narrow.
#5	Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO	2.3%	10.1%	1.18	60	59.5	60.0	57.5 / 61.5	-0.5	The host has enough prevention to drag games into tiebreak territory, but this run does not add a separate home-field rating bonus.

What changed

The calibration is the story

The established-league anchor sits near .706 OPS, 5.96 RA9 and 1.52 WHIP. BD1's raw 2026 environment is far hotter, at .884 OPS, 10.11 RA9 and 2.08 WHIP, so Brasschaat's attack remains respected without being overcounted.

Favorite shape

Hroši lead, not by inevitability

A 52.6% title share is a strong favorite number in a five-team field, but it still leaves 47.4% of the tournament outside Brno. The round robin gets them near the final; the final itself keeps the event open.

Model correction

Run-environment translation matters

BD1's raw 2026 environment is far hotter than the established European anchor. Brasschaat remain dangerous, but the -2.3 adjustment keeps raw offensive volume from being mistaken for neutral power.

Tournament mechanics

Tiebreaks are part of the forecast

At least one final-slot tiebreak appears in 70.4% of simulations. The head-to-head and TQB-style layer changes the finalist pair in 15.1% of runs versus a raw run-differential shortcut.

Players to watch

Form heat meets route leverage

The player layer is form-first and sample-gated: nobody appears here with fewer than five 2026 games. Watch score is not a talent grade. It combines current PFI, last-game PFI, trend, sample reliability and confidence, then adds route leverage from the team's final and title probabilities.

DELIYANNIS Harry

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

8.57

PFI

7.92

Last

10.00

Trend

+0.46

Games

Last-game ceiling attached to Brasschaat's 52.5% final route and 22.9% title path.

De Lannoy Steven

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

8.26

PFI

8.15

Last

8.19

Trend

+0.52

Games

High-current-form bat in one of the two clearest finalist routes.

TAIDO Yui

RouenROU / FD1

8.19

PFI

7.08

Last

9.57

Trend

+1.64

Games

Rouen's strongest recent-form lever in a legitimate 46.1% final lane.

AMOROS Lilian

SavignySAV / FD1

7.60

PFI

6.60

Last

10.00

Trend

+2.59

Games

A surging form marker for a Savigny side that needs player heat to punch above team baseline.

ACUNA Ivan

SavignySAV / FD1

7.52

PFI

7.66

Last

8.40

Trend

+1.27

Games

Clear upward trend inside the field's loudest translated attack.

PENA PEREIRA Adrian

SavignySAV / FD1

7.45

PFI

7.72

Last

10.00

Trend

+0.17

Games

Another last-game ceiling profile for the tournament's most volatile French offense.

JACQUES Adam

HrošiHRO / CEX

7.34

PFI

5.80

Last

6.26

Trend

+0.53

Games

Favorite-route leverage: Hroši do not need star-only production, but every warm bat compounds their prevention edge.

NOVÝ Vítězslav

HrošiHRO / CEX

7.34

PFI

5.02

Last

7.57

Trend

+0.90

Games

Recent lift on the tournament favorite, where route leverage raises the value of incremental form.

De Wolf Thomas

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

7.01

PFI

6.74

Last

6.79

Trend

+0.03

Games

Stable contributor in the Braves' adjusted power case.

BERÁNEK Viktor

HrošiHRO / CEX

6.97

PFI

5.32

Last

7.10

Trend

+0.07

Games

A favorite-route depth signal if Hroši turn prevention into repeat traffic control.

POSPÍŠIL Jan

HrošiHRO / CEX

6.95

PFI

5.69

Last

5.48

Trend

+0.62

Games

Smaller sample, but still qualified and attached to the strongest title path.

Herrera Torrez Jose Francisco

KarlovacBOK / CRO

6.77

PFI

7.30

Last

7.35

Trend

+0.53

Games

Karlovac's required club representative and best current-form lever if the host drags games into tiebreak range.

Player	Team	PFI	Last	Trend	Games	Watch score	Why it matters
DELIYANNIS Harry	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	7.92	10.00	+0.46	15	8.57	Last-game ceiling attached to Brasschaat's 52.5% final route and 22.9% title path.
De Lannoy Steven	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	8.15	8.19	+0.52	13	8.26	High-current-form bat in one of the two clearest finalist routes.
TAIDO Yui	RouenROU / FD1	7.08	9.57	+1.64	10	8.19	Rouen's strongest recent-form lever in a legitimate 46.1% final lane.
AMOROS Lilian	SavignySAV / FD1	6.60	10.00	+2.59	14	7.60	A surging form marker for a Savigny side that needs player heat to punch above team baseline.
ACUNA Ivan	SavignySAV / FD1	7.66	8.40	+1.27	14	7.52	Clear upward trend inside the field's loudest translated attack.
PENA PEREIRA Adrian	SavignySAV / FD1	7.72	10.00	+0.17	8	7.45	Another last-game ceiling profile for the tournament's most volatile French offense.
JACQUES Adam	HrošiHRO / CEX	5.80	6.26	+0.53	13	7.34	Favorite-route leverage: Hroši do not need star-only production, but every warm bat compounds their prevention edge.
NOVÝ Vítězslav	HrošiHRO / CEX	5.02	7.57	+0.90	15	7.34	Recent lift on the tournament favorite, where route leverage raises the value of incremental form.
De Wolf Thomas	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	6.74	6.79	+0.03	14	7.01	Stable contributor in the Braves' adjusted power case.
BERÁNEK Viktor	HrošiHRO / CEX	5.32	7.10	+0.07	9	6.97	A favorite-route depth signal if Hroši turn prevention into repeat traffic control.
POSPÍŠIL Jan	HrošiHRO / CEX	5.69	5.48	+0.62	6	6.95	Smaller sample, but still qualified and attached to the strongest title path.
Herrera Torrez Jose Francisco	KarlovacBOK / CRO	7.30	7.35	+0.53	20	6.77	Karlovac's required club representative and best current-form lever if the host drags games into tiebreak range.

Practical read

Rouen and Savigny both have players who can punch above their team baseline, but the model still separates player heat from event equity. A hot French player can swing a game; to swing the cup, the team still needs the bracket path, run prevention and tiebreak profile to hold.

Savigny stress test

The Lions got the narrowest route

Savigny own the field's strongest translated attack at 63.0, ahead of Brasschaat, Rouen, Hroši and Karlovac. The caution is prevention. Their 58 prevention and 53 defense indexes leave them needing several matchup corrections, not just one standout start.

Assumption	Final	Title	3+ wins	Read
Published StatPredict v2 simulation	13.1%	3.1%	9.8%	The base case treats Savigny as a chaser first and a finalist second.
Win-only game-price cross-check	8.6%	2%	9.8%	Removing run and tiebreak noise makes the route even tighter.
One ace-start swing: G2 +15 pp	10.5%	2.4%	12.1%	One pitching bump helps the first step, but it does not rewrite the event.
Whole-team upside: +10 pp every matchup	18.1%	6%	20.6%	Savigny become a live finalist only if the domestic inputs are understating several matchups at once.
Aggressive upside: +15 pp every matchup	24.2%	9.3%	27.5%	Double-digit title equity requires a broad roster correction, not a single-game pitching read.

Interpretation

One ace bump is not enough

The model is not dismissing Savigny talent. It is saying the tournament asks them to beat several different shapes: Karlovac prevention, Brasschaat offense, Rouen balance, and Hroši run suppression. To make Savigny a double-digit title team, the baseline would need to be wrong across multiple games.

Base final equity

13.1%

Base title equity

3.1%

Game prices

Day-by-day board

The sequence creates three bracket movers: Hroši vs Rouen, Rouen vs Karlovac, and Friday's Brasschaat vs Hroši game. Those games control most of the final-pair distribution.

Date	Game	Matchup	Lean	Win %	Projected score	Why it matters
Monday, June 15 11:00	G1	RouenROU / FD1BrasschaatBRA / BD1	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	52%	ROU 5.8, BRA 6.3	The opener is close enough to define the Belgian and French paths immediately.
Monday, June 15 17:00	G2	KarlovacBOK / CROSavignySAV / FD1	SavignySAV / FD1	53.6%	BOK 4.4, SAV 5.2	Savigny's best entry point. A loss would push them into upset-or-tiebreak territory by Day 2.
Tuesday, June 16 11:00	G3	HrošiHRO / CEXRouenROU / FD1	HrošiHRO / CEX	66%	HRO 6.0, ROU 4.3	The first major pressure point. A Rouen win turns the French route from chase lane into table-control lane.
Tuesday, June 16 17:00	G4	BrasschaatBRA / BD1SavignySAV / FD1	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	71.9%	BRA 8.3, SAV 5.3	The clearest stress test for Savigny's prevention profile against the strongest translated attack.
Wednesday, June 17 11:00	G5	SavignySAV / FD1RouenROU / FD1	RouenROU / FD1	68.7%	SAV 4.5, ROU 6.6	A French head-to-head with final-slot implications, especially if one side has already split its first two games.
Wednesday, June 17 17:00	G6	HrošiHRO / CEXKarlovacBOK / CRO	HrošiHRO / CEX	83.2%	HRO 6.9, BOK 2.8	The largest single-game edge on the board and the cleanest path for Hroši to bank separation.
Thursday, June 18 11:00	G7	SavignySAV / FD1HrošiHRO / CEX	HrošiHRO / CEX	80.6%	SAV 4.0, HRO 8.1	Savigny's highest-leverage upset shot and Hroši's chance to avoid late-week tiebreak exposure.
Thursday, June 18 17:00	G8	KarlovacBOK / CROBrasschaatBRA / BD1	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	72.6%	BOK 3.8, BRA 6.9	Karlovac can pull the middle of the table tight here; Brasschaat can make Friday a first-place game.
Friday, June 19 11:00	G9	BrasschaatBRA / BD1HrošiHRO / CEX	HrošiHRO / CEX	63.3%	BRA 5.5, HRO 7.1	The likely first-place decider and the cleanest test of Brasschaat's adjusted power against Brno prevention.
Friday, June 19 17:00	G10	RouenROU / FD1KarlovacBOK / CRO	RouenROU / FD1	72.5%	ROU 5.6, BOK 3.2	The second bracket mover. A Karlovac win would compress the final race and make TQB volatility real.

Brasschaat

70.8%

Projection: BRA 8.3, SAV 5.3

Analytical read

What the math says

The title formula is simple: final probability times final win probability, summed over every possible opponent. The hard part is estimating both terms without letting domestic run environments distort the tournament.

Favorite

Hroši are the right number

The Brno case is built on run prevention and consistency. A 78.2% final probability gives them the cleanest table path, and a 63.7% final-game price against Brasschaat keeps the modal matchup tilted their way.

Upset market

The chase is concentrated

The rest of the field is not evenly distributed. Brasschaat's attack, Rouen's balanced narrow-game lane, and Karlovac or Savigny tiebreak volatility carry most of the non-Hroši equity.

French read

Rouen have the cleaner FD1 path

Rouen's 46.1% final probability and 19.1% title share make them a legitimate finalist candidate. Savigny are dangerous in a single game, but the tournament sees them as chasers first.

Methodology

Model notes and update rules

This is a StatPredict v2 preview, not a standings guess. Outputs should be updated once official Cup box scores arrive and the model can absorb tournament-specific pitcher usage, lineup strength and run environment.

Inputs include 2026 raw league-environment benchmarks, regenerated team-power files for BD1, CRO, CEX and FD1, 2026 player-form aggregation, and StatPredict v2. Game prices use 12,000 iterations per matchup. The tournament layer uses 25,000 simulations. Tiebreak order is wins, two-team head-to-head, simulated TQB among tied teams, overall TQB, run differential, then StatPredict strength. Host rating bonus is 0.0.

Source links

Official Confederation Cup teams Official Confederation Cup schedule WBSC Europe events hub Statbase app

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