/ CONFEDERATION CUP / DAY 5 RECAP / JUNE 19 / 2026

Brasschaat won the replay. Hroši protected the final plan.

Day 5 moved the round-robin board to 8-for-10. Brasschaat's 11-5 win is a real offensive warning, but Hroši protected all five previously used pitchers and rested four of its five top Day 4 bats. The final update must price both truths.

Published recap

June 19, 2026

Round-robin games 9-10, with the full table fixed.

Official usage data supports a strong tactical-rest signal, not a declared intent claim.

Rotation-aware final update from the StatPredict v2 matchup prior.

Home Reports hub Forecast report Official schedule

Round-robin calls

8-for-10

Day 5 was 1-for-2 after four straight clean direction days.

Day 5 runs

Against 21.4 projected; the distribution, not the aggregate, was the miss.

Tactical weight

35%

Applied to G9 after pitcher protection and batting-core rest.

Final call

61.9%

Hroši remain favorites in the rotation-aware model.

/ Reality check

One directional hit, one meaningful miss

The aggregate total stayed close, but the two games landed at opposite extremes: G9 reached 16 runs while G10 produced only three, all unearned.

G9Miss

HROat

BRA

Updated leanHRO 65.1%

ProjectedHRO 7.2 - BRA 5.4

ActualBRA 11 - HRO 5

Miss. Brasschaat's core lineup punished reserve pitching; the final transfer value is lower than the scoreboard margin.

G10Hit

BOKat

ROU

Updated leanROU 80.2%

ProjectedROU 5.9 - BOK 2.9

ActualROU 2 - BOK 1

Winner hit, run model missed badly: four pitchers combined for three unearned runs and 17 strikeouts.

/ Tactical assessment

Strong rest signal, not evidence of intent to lose

The inference comes from official usage: all five previously used Hroši pitchers were protected and four of five top Day 4 bats were absent.

Pitching deployment

Čech and Schwarzinger handled all 8 innings; none of Hroši's 5 previously used pitchers appeared.

The replay exposed almost none of the likely final pitching plan.

Damage concentration

Schwarzinger: 4.0 IP, 13 H, 9 ER.

Nine of Brasschaat's 11 runs came against one reserve/two-way arm.

Batting-order protection

Jacques, Johnson, Alvarez Amatima and Ondroušek were absent from the Day 4 impact core.

Hroši still produced 5 runs, 9 hits and 8 walks.

Brasschaat form

15 hits and 4 home runs.

The contact and power signal remains real after discounting opponent pitching quality.

Final-day workload

Brasschaat used 160 pitches; Hroši used 109, with zero from its previously used staff.

Hroši protected more of the likely final inventory.

/ Final table

Brasschaat close the round robin 4-0

Rouen finish 2-2 with a +14 run differential after two opening one-run losses, but remain one win short of the final.

BrasschaatBRA / BD14-0RF 42RA 21+210.695

The only unbeaten team and the cleanest earned round-robin result.

HrošiHRO / CEX3-1RF 31RA 21+100.312

The first loss came with the primary pitching staff protected and four top Day 4 bats absent.

RouenROU / FD12-2RF 32RA 18+140.424

A strong recovery from two one-run opening losses, but still one win short of the final.

KarlovacBOK / CRO1-3RF 16RA 26-10-0.318

Seven scoreless innings from Pereira could not overcome two unearned runs.

SavignySAV / FD10-4RF 20RA 55-35-1.168

The round robin ends with the tournament's heaviest run-prevention damage.

/ Table mechanics

The final round-robin ledger

Brasschaat own first place and the best TQB. Rouen's +14 differential confirms the recovery, even though the standings keep them third.

Team	Rec.	RF	RA	RD	TQB
BrasschaatBRA / BD1	4-0	42	21	+21	0.695
HrošiHRO / CEX	3-1	31	21	+10	0.312
RouenROU / FD1	2-2	32	18	+14	0.424
KarlovacBOK / CRO	1-3	16	26	-10	-0.318
SavignySAV / FD1	0-4	20	55	-35	-1.168

The final table tells two stories

Brasschaat finish 4-0 with the best TQB. Rouen finish third despite a better run differential than Hroši, confirming how costly the two opening one-run losses were.

/ Player impact

Day 5 PFI board

Tactical deployment changes how the team result transfers to the final. It does not erase individual performance.

DE WOLF Thomas

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

10.0

3-for-4, 3 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB

Three hits, three runs and a first-inning home run set the replay's tone.

SCOTT Lucas

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

9.8

4-for-5, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 2B, 1 HR; 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 60 pitches

Four hits, four RBI and a home run, then four innings of one-run relief.

VISSAC Martin

RouenROU / FD1

Game

G10

PFI

9.0

3-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI, 2 SB

Three hits and the winning run on the eighth-inning balk.

TAIDO Yui

RouenROU / FD1

Game

G10

PFI

8.5

6.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 82 pitches

Six scoreless innings with no walks gave Rouen control of the third-place game.

DELIYANNIS Harry

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

7.8

2-for-5, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR

Two hits and a home run extended his tournament-long two-way impact.

PEREIRA TOVAR Jose Gregorio

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Game

G10

PFI

7.5

0-for-4; 7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 81 pitches

Seven innings without an earned run; Karlovac lost on passed-ball and balk scoring.

BALLARDINI Lino

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

7.0

3-for-5, 2 R, 0 RBI, 1 K

Three hits and two runs kept Brasschaat's pressure moving behind the home-run damage.

ITO Ryusuke

RouenROU / FD1

Game

G10

PFI

6.7

3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 41 pitches

Three hitless innings and five strikeouts closed the tournament round robin.

GALES Slobodan

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Game

G10

PFI

6.7

1-for-2, 0 R, 0 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

A double and a walk supplied Karlovac's best on-base pressure in the three-run game.

DUBOVÝ Arnošt

HrošiHRO / CEX

#10

Game

PFI

6.7

2-for-4, 2 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB

Reached three times and scored twice despite the heavily rotated Hroši lineup.

POSPÍŠIL Jan

HrošiHRO / CEX

#11

Game

PFI

6.6

2-for-5, 0 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B

Two hits and an RBI double provided one of Hroši's few extra-base responses.

MEGUMI Kento

RouenROU / FD1

#12

Game

G10

PFI

6.1

1-for-3, 0 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB

Reached twice and added a stolen base inside the low-scoring third-place win.

Rank	Player	Game	PFI	Line	Read
#1	DE WOLF ThomasBrasschaat / BRA	G9	10.0	3-for-4, 3 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB	Three hits, three runs and a first-inning home run set the replay's tone.
#2	SCOTT LucasBrasschaat / BRA	G9	9.8	4-for-5, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 2B, 1 HR; 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 60 pitches	Four hits, four RBI and a home run, then four innings of one-run relief.
#3	VISSAC MartinRouen / ROU	G10	9.0	3-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI, 2 SB	Three hits and the winning run on the eighth-inning balk.
#4	TAIDO YuiRouen / ROU	G10	8.5	6.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 82 pitches	Six scoreless innings with no walks gave Rouen control of the third-place game.
#5	DELIYANNIS HarryBrasschaat / BRA	G9	7.8	2-for-5, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR	Two hits and a home run extended his tournament-long two-way impact.
#6	PEREIRA TOVAR Jose GregorioKarlovac / BOK	G10	7.5	0-for-4; 7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 81 pitches	Seven innings without an earned run; Karlovac lost on passed-ball and balk scoring.
#7	BALLARDINI LinoBrasschaat / BRA	G9	7.0	3-for-5, 2 R, 0 RBI, 1 K	Three hits and two runs kept Brasschaat's pressure moving behind the home-run damage.
#8	ITO RyusukeRouen / ROU	G10	6.7	3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 41 pitches	Three hitless innings and five strikeouts closed the tournament round robin.
#9	GALES SlobodanKarlovac / BOK	G10	6.7	1-for-2, 0 R, 0 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K	A double and a walk supplied Karlovac's best on-base pressure in the three-run game.
#10	DUBOVÝ ArnoštHroši / HRO	G9	6.7	2-for-4, 2 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB	Reached three times and scored twice despite the heavily rotated Hroši lineup.
#11	POSPÍŠIL JanHroši / HRO	G9	6.6	2-for-5, 0 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B	Two hits and an RBI double provided one of Hroši's few extra-base responses.
#12	MEGUMI KentoRouen / ROU	G10	6.1	1-for-3, 0 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB	Reached twice and added a stolen base inside the low-scoring third-place win.

/ Pitch-depth tax

Hroši protected inventory; Brasschaat spent 160

The finalists now separate sharply on Day 5 usage: Brasschaat reached 588 tournament pitches, while Hroši used only arms unseen earlier in the event.

Lions de SavignySAV / FD1

595

total pitches

0-4 / Day 5: Idle

Idle on Day 5 after a tournament-high 595 pitches across four losses.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1

588

total pitches

4-0 / Day 5: 160

The 4-0 round robin cost 588 pitches; Leo and Scott combined for all 160 on the eve of the final.

Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO

543

total pitches

1-3 / Day 5: 100

Pereira and Diaz held Rouen to two unearned runs, finishing the round robin at 543 pitches.

Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1

510

total pitches

2-2 / Day 5: 123

Taido and Ito spent 123 pitches to secure third place, allowing no earned runs.

Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX

501

total pitches

3-1 / Day 5: 109

Only 109 Day 5 pitches, all from arms unused earlier; the primary staff was protected.

/ Final forecast

The scoreboard matters, but it does not get full weight

A full-weight update overstates G9; ignoring it understates Brasschaat's form. The final model applies 35% of the result signal.

Pre-replay StatPredict final prior

Hroši

63.7%

Brasschaat

36.3%

Best-on-best matchup estimate before G9.

Naive full-weight G9 update

Hroši

58.5%

Brasschaat

41.5%

Treats the 11-5 result as a normal-strength game.

Rotation-aware final model

Hroši

61.9%

Brasschaat

38.1%

Applies 35% of the G9 result signal because of protected pitchers and rested core bats.

Rotation-aware result weight

w = 1 - 0.45P - 0.25B = 0.35

All five previously used Hroši pitchers were protected, while four of five top Day 4 bats were absent. The full -38.65 Elo update is therefore reduced to -13.53 points.

Final call

HRO 61.9%

BRA 38.1%

HRO 7.1 - BRA 5.5

/ Source and model note

Official results, rotation-aware final update

The final model starts from the StatPredict v2 matchup prior, applies a margin-adjusted Elo result update, then discounts it using protected-pitcher share and rested Day 4 batting-core share.

G9: Hroši Brno at Brasschaat Braves G10: Olimpija Karlovac at Rouen Huskies

Final intelligence access

Turn tournament context into better decisions

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