/ CONFEDERATION CUP / DAY 4 RECAP / JUNE 18 / 2026

The final is locked. The score model nearly signed the box score.

StatPredict went 2-for-2 again and moved to 7-for-8 for the event. Hroši controlled Savigny 7-2, while Brasschaat's 7-4 win over Karlovac landed within one run of both projected team scores and formally locked the Hroši-Brasschaat final.

Published recap

June 18, 2026

Round-robin games 7-8, official Day 4 results.

Post-Day-3 matchup update checked against official WBSC Europe game logs.

Final qualification is now mathematical, not simulated.

Home Reports hub Forecast report Official schedule

Event calls

7-for-8

Another 2-for-2 day for StatPredict.

Closest receipt

7-4

Only 0.3 combined runs from the original 6.9-3.8 card.

Finalists

Locked

Hroši and Brasschaat are both 3-0.

Day 4 runs

Against 22.8 projected across the two games.

/ Forecast receipt

Two winner hits, one almost exact score

Day 4 was the cleanest score-shape confirmation of the event. The favorites landed, the totals stayed controlled, and Brasschaat-Karlovac finished almost directly on the updated card.

G7Hit

HROat

SAV

Updated leanHRO 92.6%

ProjectedHRO 8.9 - SAV 3.2

ActualHRO 7 - SAV 2

The favorite, margin, and low Savigny run band all landed. Hroši won with 15 hits and no errors.

G8Hit

BRAat

BOK

Updated leanBRA 81.4%

ProjectedBRA 7.3 - BOK 3.4

ActualBRA 7 - BOK 4

Winner and score shape landed. The original 6.9-3.8 card missed the two official team scores by only 0.3 combined runs.

/ Final lock

Hroši-Brasschaat is no longer the likely final

It is the final in 100% of tournament paths. StatPredict prices Hroši at 63.8% to take the trophy and Brasschaat at 36.2%.

Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX

63.8%

title probability / 100% final

3.63 xW+11.1 pp title

Hroši's cleaner run prevention and lighter cumulative staff tax keep the locked final tilted toward Brno.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1

36.2%

title probability / 100% final

3.37 xW+13.3 pp title

Brasschaat's third win raises the title lane to 36.2% and closes the only external gate Rouen still had.

Rouen's path closed exactly here

Day 3 required Karlovac to beat Brasschaat before Rouen could use a 2-2 tiebreak. Brasschaat won 7-4, reached three wins, and made Rouen's maximum two-win finish irrelevant.

/ Live reset

The title market is now a two-team board

Games 1-8 are fixed in the simulation. Hroši and Brasschaat move to 100% top-two probability, while Rouen's 12.3% Day 3 route falls to zero.

Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX#1

Record

3-0

RF-RA

26-10 (+16)

Top two

100%

Title

63.8%

3.63

Move

+21.8 pp / +11.1 pp

Three controlled wins and the cleaner prevention/workload profile keep Hroši on top of the title board.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1#2

Record

3-0

RF-RA

31-16 (+15)

Top two

100%

Title

36.2%

3.37

Move

+47.5 pp / +13.3 pp

The unbeaten power alternative closed Rouen's external gate and now owns more than a third of the title market.

Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1#3

Record

1-2

RF-RA

30-17 (+13)

Top two

Title

1.73

Move

-46.1 pp / -19.1 pp

The +13 differential remains real, but Brasschaat's third win removes every route to the final.

Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO#4

Record

1-2

RF-RA

15-24 (-9)

Top two

Title

1.27

Move

-10.1 pp / -2.3 pp

Karlovac's loss removes the middle-table compression route and turns G10 into a third-place game.

Lions de SavignySAV / FD1#5

Record

0-4

RF-RA

20-55 (-35)

Top two

Title

0.00

Move

-13.1 pp / -3.1 pp

Savigny finish the round robin outside every final path after the field's heaviest prevention collapse.

Rank	Team	Rec.	RF-RA	Top two	Title	xW	Move	Read
#1	HrošiHRO / CEX	3-0	26-10 (+16)	100%	63.8%	3.63	+21.8 pp +11.1 pp	Three controlled wins and the cleaner prevention/workload profile keep Hroši on top of the title board.
#2	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	3-0	31-16 (+15)	100%	36.2%	3.37	+47.5 pp +13.3 pp	The unbeaten power alternative closed Rouen's external gate and now owns more than a third of the title market.
#3	RouenROU / FD1	1-2	30-17 (+13)	0%	0%	1.73	-46.1 pp -19.1 pp	The +13 differential remains real, but Brasschaat's third win removes every route to the final.
#4	KarlovacBOK / CRO	1-2	15-24 (-9)	0%	0%	1.27	-10.1 pp -2.3 pp	Karlovac's loss removes the middle-table compression route and turns G10 into a third-place game.
#5	SavignySAV / FD1	0-4	20-55 (-35)	0%	0%	0.00	-13.1 pp -3.1 pp	Savigny finish the round robin outside every final path after the field's heaviest prevention collapse.

/ Table mechanics

The three-win threshold removes every tiebreak route

Hroši and Brasschaat have cleared three wins. Rouen and Karlovac can reach only 2-2, so a full win in the standings now separates the finalists from the field.

Team	Rec.	RF	RA	RD	TQB
HrošiHRO / CEX	3-0	26	10	+16	0.684
BrasschaatBRA / BD1	3-0	31	16	+15	0.652
RouenROU / FD1	1-2	30	17	+13	0.492
KarlovacBOK / CRO	1-2	15	24	-9	-0.363
SavignySAV / FD1	0-4	20	55	-35	-1.168

No tiebreak can bridge a full win

Hroši and Brasschaat have cleared three wins. Rouen and Karlovac can reach only 2-2, so every TQB route to the final has disappeared. G10 is now a third-place game.

/ Rouen path

The external gate closed before Rouen played again

Day 3 identified one non-negotiable condition: Karlovac had to beat Brasschaat before losing to Rouen. The updated board priced that upset at 18.6%; Brasschaat won 7-4.

Required upset

18.6%

Karlovac's updated chance to beat Brasschaat in G8.

Rouen final

A maximum 2-2 finish cannot bridge Brasschaat's third win.

G10 updated

80.2%

Rouen remain favored over Karlovac, now for third place.

/ Player impact

Day 4 PFI board

This is Day 4-only PFI, normalized against the same BD1/CRO/CEX/FD1 2026 game-log population. It measures tournament-day impact.

JACQUES Adam

HrošiHRO / CEX

Game

PFI

9.8

3-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR

Three hits, a home run and two RBI in the win that locked Hroši into the final.

DELIYANNIS Harry

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

9.4

5-for-5, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 2B, 1 HR; 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 16 pitches

Five-for-five with a home run, then a scoreless ninth to finish the win.

ALVAREZ AMATIMA Roberto Clemente

HrošiHRO / CEX

Game

PFI

8.0

3-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI

Three hits and two RBI extended Hroši's pressure beyond the two home-run swings.

DE LANNOY Steven

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

7.7

2-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B

His two-run double opened the scoring and established the lead Brasschaat never surrendered.

POSPÍŠIL Jan

HrošiHRO / CEX

Game

PFI

7.7

3-for-5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B

Three hits, including an RBI double, kept Hroši adding separation through the middle innings.

ONDROUŠEK Daniel

HrošiHRO / CEX

Game

PFI

7.5

3-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI, 1 2B

Reached with three hits and scored in the sixth, giving the lower order a sustained traffic role.

JOHNSON Ryan Johannes

HrošiHRO / CEX

Game

PFI

7.4

2-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 2 K

Two-run homer opened the scoring and put the heavy favorite into control.

HERRERA TORREZ Jose Francisco

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Game

PFI

7.4

3-for-5, 0 R, 1 RBI

Capped Karlovac's four-run seventh with an RBI single and supplied its strongest contact line.

DE WOLF Thomas

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

7.4

1-for-3, 1 R, 0 RBI, 2 HBP, 1 K

Reached three times and scored during Brasschaat's three-run seventh, adding value beyond the hit column.

SOBOTKA Daniel

HrošiHRO / CEX

#10

Game

PFI

7.2

5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 97 pitches

Eight strikeouts across 5.2 innings kept Savigny from creating a live upset lane.

BALLARDINI Lino

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

#11

Game

PFI

7.1

1-for-3, 0 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

Reached three times and drove in De Lannoy, helping Brasschaat turn baserunner volume into an early cushion.

BARTOLČIĆ Dorian

KarlovacBOK / CRO

#12

Game

PFI

7.1

2-for-4, 0 R, 2 RBI, 2 2B, 1 K

His two-run double powered Karlovac's seventh-inning comeback and cut the deficit to four.

Rank	Player	Game	PFI	Line	Read
#1	JACQUES AdamHroši / HRO	G7	9.8	3-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR	Three hits, a home run and two RBI in the win that locked Hroši into the final.
#2	DELIYANNIS HarryBrasschaat / BRA	G8	9.4	5-for-5, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 2B, 1 HR; 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 16 pitches	Five-for-five with a home run, then a scoreless ninth to finish the win.
#3	ALVAREZ AMATIMA Roberto ClementeHroši / HRO	G7	8.0	3-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI	Three hits and two RBI extended Hroši's pressure beyond the two home-run swings.
#4	DE LANNOY StevenBrasschaat / BRA	G8	7.7	2-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B	His two-run double opened the scoring and established the lead Brasschaat never surrendered.
#5	POSPÍŠIL JanHroši / HRO	G7	7.7	3-for-5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B	Three hits, including an RBI double, kept Hroši adding separation through the middle innings.
#6	ONDROUŠEK DanielHroši / HRO	G7	7.5	3-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI, 1 2B	Reached with three hits and scored in the sixth, giving the lower order a sustained traffic role.
#7	JOHNSON Ryan JohannesHroši / HRO	G7	7.4	2-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 2 K	Two-run homer opened the scoring and put the heavy favorite into control.
#8	HERRERA TORREZ Jose FranciscoKarlovac / BOK	G8	7.4	3-for-5, 0 R, 1 RBI	Capped Karlovac's four-run seventh with an RBI single and supplied its strongest contact line.
#9	DE WOLF ThomasBrasschaat / BRA	G8	7.4	1-for-3, 1 R, 0 RBI, 2 HBP, 1 K	Reached three times and scored during Brasschaat's three-run seventh, adding value beyond the hit column.
#10	SOBOTKA DanielHroši / HRO	G7	7.2	5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 97 pitches	Eight strikeouts across 5.2 innings kept Savigny from creating a live upset lane.
#11	BALLARDINI LinoBrasschaat / BRA	G8	7.1	1-for-3, 0 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K	Reached three times and drove in De Lannoy, helping Brasschaat turn baserunner volume into an early cushion.
#12	BARTOLČIĆ DorianKarlovac / BOK	G8	7.1	2-for-4, 0 R, 2 RBI, 2 2B, 1 K	His two-run double powered Karlovac's seventh-inning comeback and cut the deficit to four.

/ Pitch-depth tax

Qualification is settled; recovery is not

Brasschaat used 165 pitches to secure the final, while Hroši completed nine innings in 132. That recovery difference now sits behind Friday's first-place game and the eventual title matchup.

Lions de SavignySAV / FD1

595

total pitches

0-4 / Day 4: 133

The heaviest staff bill in the field, paired with 55 runs allowed across four games.

Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO

443

total pitches

1-2 / Day 4: 164

Karlovac's four-run rally came inside another expensive staff day.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1

428

total pitches

3-0 / Day 4: 165

The final is secure, but the near-exact win cost the deepest Day 4 pitch count.

Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX

392

total pitches

3-0 / Day 4: 132

Sobotka and Navrátil completed nine innings without forcing a late staff scramble.

Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1

387

total pitches

1-2 / Day 4: Idle

Rouen rested, but Brasschaat's win removed the final path before Friday's Karlovac game.

/ Final round board

The post-Day-4 update prices rest and staff damage

Current run differential, Day 4 form, latest-day pitch load, and cumulative staff usage are layered onto the original StatPredict v2 card.

G9HRO 65.1%

HROat

BRA

Hroši Brno at Brasschaat Braves

Base leanHRO 63.3%

Move+1.8 pp

ProjectionBRA 5.4 - HRO 7.2

First-place game and final rehearsal: Hroši's cleaner run prevention and slightly lighter staff tax keep HRO at 65.1%.

G10ROU 80.2%

BOKat

ROU

Olimpija Karlovac at Rouen Huskies

Base leanROU 72.5%

Move+7.7 pp

ProjectionROU 5.9 - BOK 2.9

Rouen was idle on Day 4 while Karlovac spent 164 pitches; the rested Huskies move to 80.2%.

Locked final market

Hroši 63.8% vs Brasschaat 36.2%

G9 remains a first-place game and final rehearsal. The post-Day-4 matchup update prices Hroši at 65.1% with a 7.2-5.4 projected score.

/ Source and model note

Official results, conditioned tournament math

The report fixes games 1-8, simulates G9-G10 from StatPredict v2, applies the same head-to-head/TQB/run-differential stack, and prices the locked Hroši-Brasschaat final from the forecast matchup board.

G7: Hroši Brno at Lions de Savigny G8: Brasschaat Braves at Olimpija Karlovac

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