/ CONFEDERATION CUP / DAY 3 RECAP / JUNE 17 / 2026

Rouen repaired the table, but Hroši took control

Day 3 gave StatPredict another 2-for-2 direction day and another reminder that winner accuracy is only half the story. Rouen's 22-run response reopened a tiebreak route, while Hroši's 14-4 control game moved the title board firmly through Brno.

Published recap

June 17, 2026

Round-robin games 5-6, with games 1-6 fixed in the model.

StatPredict v2 pre-event forecast plus the post-Day-2 update layer, conditioned through Day 3.

Official WBSC Europe box-score payloads plus the live tournament simulation layer.

Home Reports hub Forecast report Official schedule

HrošiHRO / CEX

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

RouenROU / FD1

SavignySAV / FD1

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Day 3 runs

Against a 20.8-run updated board for games 5-6.

Event calls

5-for-6

StatPredict is 2-for-2 on Day 3 and 5-for-6 through the event.

Title leader

64.5%

Hroši now hold the strongest championship lane.

Tied paths

37.5%

Rouen's +13 run differential keeps the second-place door cracked.

/ Executive read

Correct winners, violent score shapes

Day 3 was clean directionally and messy in the run environment. The model hit both winners, but the official games produced more than twice the projected run total.

Day 3 was another clean direction day: 2-for-2 today, 5-for-6 for the event.

The updated board projected 20.8 runs for G5-G6. The official games produced 47.

Rouen's first win was not subtle: 21 hits, five home runs, and seven runs in the seventh.

Hroši's 14-4 win was the bigger title signal, pushing them to 64.5% title equity.

/ Forecast check

Day 3 board reality check

Both updated leans landed. Both games also ran far hotter than the run band, continuing the tournament's post-Day-1 scoring surge.

G5Hit

ROUat

SAV

Updated leanROU 76.7%

ProjectedROU 6.9 - SAV 4.2

ActualROU 22 - SAV 7

Rouen did not just land the updated lean. It repaired a damaged run differential in one afternoon.

G6Hit

BOKat

HRO

Updated leanHRO 80.9%

ProjectedHRO 6.8 - BOK 2.9

ActualHRO 14 - BOK 4

Hroši converted the heavy favorite lane into a run-rule-strength table statement.

/ Live reset

The final race is mostly Hroši-Brasschaat now

Rouen's blowout reopened a narrow second-place route, but the title board is now concentrated around the two unbeaten clubs.

Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX#1

Record

2-0

RF-RA

19-8 (+11)

Top two

99.4%

Title

64.5%

3.44

Move

+21.2 pp / +11.8 pp

The cleanest title lane: two wins, controlled workload, and the highest remaining team-strength profile.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1#2

Record

2-0

RF-RA

24-12 (+12)

Top two

82.7%

Title

30.2%

3.09

Move

+30.2 pp / +7.3 pp

Brasschaat still own the loudest actual table, and the Day 3 idle spot gave the staff the best recovery setup.

Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1#3

Record

1-2

RF-RA

30-17 (+13)

Top two

12.3%

Title

4.3%

1.73

Move

-33.8 pp / -14.8 pp

The 22-run response keeps a narrow second-place route alive, almost entirely through 2-2 tiebreak worlds.

Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO#4

Record

1-1

RF-RA

11-17 (-6)

Top two

5.5%

Title

1.0%

1.55

Move

-4.6 pp / -1.3 pp

The Day 1 walk-off still matters, but Hroši turned Karlovac's middle lane into a workload and differential problem.

Lions de SavignySAV / FD1#5

Record

0-3

RF-RA

18-48 (-30)

Top two

0.0%

Title

0.0%

0.19

Move

-13.1 pp / -3.1 pp

Savigny have moved from uncomfortable to effectively outside the final lane after allowing 48 runs in three games.

Rank	Team	Rec.	RF-RA	Top two	Title	xW	Move	Read
#1	HrošiHRO / CEX	2-0	19-8 (+11)	99.4%	64.5%	3.44	+21.2 pp +11.8 pp	The cleanest title lane: two wins, controlled workload, and the highest remaining team-strength profile.
#2	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	2-0	24-12 (+12)	82.7%	30.2%	3.09	+30.2 pp +7.3 pp	Brasschaat still own the loudest actual table, and the Day 3 idle spot gave the staff the best recovery setup.
#3	RouenROU / FD1	1-2	30-17 (+13)	12.3%	4.3%	1.73	-33.8 pp -14.8 pp	The 22-run response keeps a narrow second-place route alive, almost entirely through 2-2 tiebreak worlds.
#4	KarlovacBOK / CRO	1-1	11-17 (-6)	5.5%	1.0%	1.55	-4.6 pp -1.3 pp	The Day 1 walk-off still matters, but Hroši turned Karlovac's middle lane into a workload and differential problem.
#5	SavignySAV / FD1	0-3	18-48 (-30)	0.0%	0.0%	0.19	-13.1 pp -3.1 pp	Savigny have moved from uncomfortable to effectively outside the final lane after allowing 48 runs in three games.

/ Table mechanics

Rouen's +13 is why the back door still exists

The standings alone do not tell the whole story. Rouen are 1-2, but the 22-7 win changed the tiebreak shape enough to keep a small final lane alive.

Team	Rec.	RF	RA	RD	TQB
BrasschaatBRA / BD1	2-0	24	12	+12	0.850
HrošiHRO / CEX	2-0	19	8	+11	0.769
KarlovacBOK / CRO	1-1	11	17	-6	-0.381
RouenROU / FD1	1-2	30	17	+13	0.492
SavignySAV / FD1	0-3	18	48	-30	-1.433

Rouen's blowout mattered

The post-Day-3 simulation still reaches a tied final-slot situation in 37.5% of paths. Rouen's +13 differential is now better than Hroši's +11 and Karlovac's -6, so the back door is narrow but no longer cosmetic.

/ Rouen path tree

The back door is real, but it is narrow

Rouen cannot finish first in the current simulation. Every live route is a second-place route through a 2-2 tiebreak, and every title world is against Hroši.

Gate

Rouen beats Karlovac in G10

Chance

72.7%

Final if

16.9%

Adds

12.3%

Mandatory. A loss caps Rouen at 1-3 and shuts the door.

Gate

Karlovac beats Brasschaat, then Rouen beats Karlovac

Chance

19.8%

Final if

62.0%

Adds

12.3%

The real doorway: Brasschaat must be held at two wins before the G9/G10 tiebreak math can matter.

Winner stack	World	ROU final	Contribution	Read
HRO over SAV; BOK over BRA; HRO over BRA; ROU over BOK	10.1%	97.5%	9.9%	Main live route: Hroši clears the leaders' lane, Karlovac clips Brasschaat, then Rouen wins the 2-2 TQB fight.
SAV over HRO; BOK over BRA; HRO over BRA; ROU over BOK	2.5%	97.3%	2.4%	Savigny chaos can still help the shape, but Rouen still needs Hroši to beat Brasschaat.

/ Player impact

Day 3 PFI board

This is Day 3-only PFI, normalized against the same BD1/CRO/CEX/FD1 2026 game-log population. It captures game impact inside the current tournament reset.

BLONDEL Hugo

RouenROU / FD1

Game

PFI

10.0

4-for-5, 3 R, 4 RBI, 1 HR

Four RBI and an early three-run homer; Rouen's run-differential repair started here.

LEBOUC Oscar

RouenROU / FD1

Game

PFI

10.0

3-for-4, 4 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 2 BB

Reached base five times and gave Rouen the table-setting pressure it lacked in the two one-run losses.

BRAINVILLE Louis

RouenROU / FD1

Game

PFI

9.9

3-for-5, 3 R, 4 RBI, 1 HR, 1 HBP

The seventh-inning grand slam turned a win into a tiebreak-reset blowout.

JOHNSON Ryan Johannes

HrošiHRO / CEX

Game

PFI

9.3

2-for-3, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 HBP

Hroši's table-setting power piece in the Karlovac control game.

ACUÑA Ivan

SavignySAV / FD1

Game

PFI

8.3

2-for-4, 1 R, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 K

Savigny still found extra-base damage, but the prevention collapse swallowed the signal.

JACQUES Adam

HrošiHRO / CEX

Game

PFI

8.2

2-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB

A clean pressure line in the Hroši win, keeping the lineup longer than Karlovac could manage.

MEGUMI Kento

RouenROU / FD1

Game

PFI

8.2

2-for-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K

Extra-base pressure inside Rouen's first win and run-differential repair.

VOLARIĆ Kevin

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Game

PFI

7.4

3-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 K

Karlovac's best Day 3 offensive marker despite the table damage.

PEREIRA TOVAR Jose Gregorio

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Game

PFI

7.1

2-for-3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB

A useful individual pressure line in a game Karlovac could not keep attached.

MALCONIAN Matthew

HrošiHRO / CEX

#10

Game

PFI

7.1

3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 52 pitches

Scoreless bridge with seven strikeouts after Hroši had already taken control.

RIOUX Théo

RouenROU / FD1

#11

Game

PFI

7.0

3-for-6, 1 R, 4 RBI, 1 2B

Four RBI lower in the Rouen order helped turn process into table value.

HARRISON Gabriel

RouenROU / FD1

#12

Game

PFI

7.0

2-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HBP

Another depth contribution in the 21-hit Rouen response.

Rank	Player	Game	PFI	Line	Read
#1	BLONDEL HugoRouen / ROU	G5	10.0	4-for-5, 3 R, 4 RBI, 1 HR	Four RBI and an early three-run homer; Rouen's run-differential repair started here.
#2	LEBOUC OscarRouen / ROU	G5	10.0	3-for-4, 4 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 2 BB	Reached base five times and gave Rouen the table-setting pressure it lacked in the two one-run losses.
#3	BRAINVILLE LouisRouen / ROU	G5	9.9	3-for-5, 3 R, 4 RBI, 1 HR, 1 HBP	The seventh-inning grand slam turned a win into a tiebreak-reset blowout.
#4	JOHNSON Ryan JohannesHroši / HRO	G6	9.3	2-for-3, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 HBP	Hroši's table-setting power piece in the Karlovac control game.
#5	ACUÑA IvanSavigny / SAV	G5	8.3	2-for-4, 1 R, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 K	Savigny still found extra-base damage, but the prevention collapse swallowed the signal.
#6	JACQUES AdamHroši / HRO	G6	8.2	2-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB	A clean pressure line in the Hroši win, keeping the lineup longer than Karlovac could manage.
#7	MEGUMI KentoRouen / ROU	G5	8.2	2-for-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K	Extra-base pressure inside Rouen's first win and run-differential repair.
#8	VOLARIĆ KevinKarlovac / BOK	G6	7.4	3-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 K	Karlovac's best Day 3 offensive marker despite the table damage.
#9	PEREIRA TOVAR Jose GregorioKarlovac / BOK	G6	7.1	2-for-3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB	A useful individual pressure line in a game Karlovac could not keep attached.
#10	MALCONIAN MatthewHroši / HRO	G6	7.1	3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 52 pitches	Scoreless bridge with seven strikeouts after Hroši had already taken control.
#11	RIOUX ThéoRouen / ROU	G5	7.0	3-for-6, 1 R, 4 RBI, 1 2B	Four RBI lower in the Rouen order helped turn process into table value.
#12	HARRISON GabrielRouen / ROU	G5	7.0	2-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HBP	Another depth contribution in the 21-hit Rouen response.

/ Pitch-depth tax

Savigny carry the tournament's biggest staff bill

Day 3 separated the workload picture: Brasschaat rested, Hroši stayed controlled, Rouen bought a win, and Savigny absorbed a 186-pitch collapse.

Lions de SavignySAV / FD1

462

pitches

0-3 / Day 3: 186

The tournament's biggest staff tax after a 186-pitch collapse against Rouen.

Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1

387

pitches

1-2 / Day 3: 111

Rouen finally bought a win without another 130-plus pitch arm, but the three-day total remains heavy.

Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO

279

pitches

1-1 / Day 3: 141

Karlovac has spent 279 pitches in two games and now gets the rested Braves.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1

263

pitches

2-0 / Day 3: Idle

Idle on Day 3 with a 2-0 record; this is the best recovery setup before Karlovac.

Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX

260

pitches

2-0 / Day 3: 137

Back-to-back wins with 260 total pitches; Malconian's relief usage is the main recovery note.

/ Thursday board

Updated predictions price the damage

These are post-Day-3 matchup updates. Current run differential, Day 3 run differential, workload, and rest are layered onto the original StatPredict v2 card.

G7HRO 92.6%

HROat

SAV

Hroši Brno at Lions de Savigny

Base leanHRO 80.6%

Move+12.0 pp

ProjectionSAV 3.2 - HRO 8.9

Savigny's prevention collapse pushes the Hroši lean into near-lock territory.

G8BRA 81.4%

BRAat

BOK

Brasschaat Braves at Olimpija Karlovac

Base leanBRA 72.6%

Move+8.7 pp

ProjectionBOK 3.4 - BRA 7.3

Brasschaat were idle on Day 3 while Karlovac absorbed Hroši's 14-run control game.

/ Source and model note

Official results, live simulation layer

This recap uses official WBSC Europe box-score data for games 5-6, plus the already-cached Day 1-2 official payloads. The tournament board fixes games 1-6, simulates games 7-10 from StatPredict probabilities, applies the same head-to-head/TQB/run-differential tiebreak stack, and prices the final from the forecast matchup board.

G5: Rouen at Savigny G6: Karlovac at Hroši

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