Day 2 runs
36
Against a 23.9-run StatPredict board.
/ CONFEDERATION CUP / DAY 2 RECAP / JUNE 16 / 2026
Brasschaat detonated the run environment
Day 2 was a clean model day, but not a quiet one. Hroši beat Rouen almost inside the exact forecast shape, then Brasschaat turned a projected favorite lane into a 19-8 run-rule statement that pushed Savigny to the edge of the tournament.
Published recap
June 16, 2026
Round-robin games 3-4, official Day 2 results.
StatPredict v2 pre-event forecast, conditioned on official results through Day 2.
Official WBSC Europe box-score payloads plus the live tournament simulation layer.
HrošiHRO / CEX
BrasschaatBRA / BD1
RouenROU / FD1
SavignySAV / FD1
KarlovacBOK / CROWinner calls
2-for-2
Hroši and Brasschaat both landed, in very different run environments.
Tied final paths
45.9%
Second-place tiebreak pressure remains the tournament's core mechanic.
Pitch load
276
Rouen and Savigny have each spent 276 pitches through two losses.
/ Executive read
The model hit, but Brasschaat changed the scale
Day 2 was clean directionally: Hroši and Brasschaat both landed. The separation is that Hroši won inside the forecast shape, while Brasschaat blew past the projected run band.
Day 2 was a clean direction day for the model: 2-for-2 today, 3-for-4 for the event.
The projected Day 2 board was 23.9 runs. The official games produced 36, almost entirely because Brasschaat scored 12 in the fifth.
Rouen have now lost two games by one run, but the table does not price moral proximity.
Savigny are 0-2, -15, and the combined French title lane has collapsed to 3.7%.
/ Forecast check
Day 2 board reality check
The Hroši result was almost a direct model confirmation. Brasschaat was a favorite hit with a much louder magnitude than the forecast priced.
G3Hit
ROUatHROPre-game leanHRO 66.0%
ProjectedHRO 6.0 - ROU 4.3
ActualHRO 5 - ROU 4
Almost exactly the planned Hroši control game: one-run final, suppressed total, favorite held.
G4Hit
SAVatBRAPre-game leanBRA 71.9%
ProjectedBRA 8.3 - SAV 5.3
ActualBRA 19 - SAV 8
Correct favorite, wrong magnitude: Brasschaat's 12-run fifth detonated the run environment.
/ Live reset
Hroši lead the model, Brasschaat own the table
Brasschaat have the strongest actual-results profile at 2-0 and +12. Hroši still hold the highest title equity because the remaining schedule and underlying team-strength layer are kinder.
Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX#1Record
1-0
RF-RA
5-4 (+1)
Top two
91.1%
Title
60.0%
xW
3.27
Move
+12.9 pp / +7.3 pp
Highest title equity remains with Hroši because the schedule and team-strength layer are still kinder.
Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1#2Record
2-0
RF-RA
24-12 (+12)
Top two
83.1%
Title
33.0%
xW
3.09
Move
+30.6 pp / +10.1 pp
The table's strongest actual-results profile: 2-0, +12, and the French pair already behind.
Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1#3Record
0-2
RF-RA
8-10 (-2)
Top two
9.0%
Title
3.4%
xW
1.41
Move
-37.1 pp / -15.7 pp
Two one-run losses keep the process respectable, but the table does not price moral proximity.
Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO#4Record
1-0
RF-RA
7-3 (+4)
Top two
15.9%
Title
3.3%
xW
1.72
Move
+5.8 pp / +1.0 pp
Idle on Day 2, still protected by the Savigny head-to-head and a +4 opening differential.
Lions de SavignySAV / FD1#5Record
0-2
RF-RA
11-26 (-15)
Top two
0.9%
Title
0.3%
xW
0.51
Move
-12.2 pp / -2.8 pp
The discomfort story is over: 0-2, -15, and almost no remaining final lane.
| Rank | Team | Rec. | RF-RA | Top two | Title | xW | Move | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | HrošiHRO / CEX | 1-0 | 5-4 (+1) | 91.1% | 60.0% | 3.27 | +12.9 pp +7.3 pp | Highest title equity remains with Hroši because the schedule and team-strength layer are still kinder. |
| #2 | BrasschaatBRA / BD1 | 2-0 | 24-12 (+12) | 83.1% | 33.0% | 3.09 | +30.6 pp +10.1 pp | The table's strongest actual-results profile: 2-0, +12, and the French pair already behind. |
| #3 | RouenROU / FD1 | 0-2 | 8-10 (-2) | 9.0% | 3.4% | 1.41 | -37.1 pp -15.7 pp | Two one-run losses keep the process respectable, but the table does not price moral proximity. |
| #4 | KarlovacBOK / CRO | 1-0 | 7-3 (+4) | 15.9% | 3.3% | 1.72 | +5.8 pp +1.0 pp | Idle on Day 2, still protected by the Savigny head-to-head and a +4 opening differential. |
| #5 | SavignySAV / FD1 | 0-2 | 11-26 (-15) | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.51 | -12.2 pp -2.8 pp | The discomfort story is over: 0-2, -15, and almost no remaining final lane. |
/ Table mechanics
Brasschaat now carry the loudest TQB position
Run differential is no longer a footnote. Brasschaat sit at +12, Savigny are at -15, and the tied-final-slot layer still appears in nearly half of simulations.
| Team | Rec. | RF | RA | RD | TQB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BrasschaatBRA / BD1 | 2-0 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 0.850 |
| KarlovacBOK / CRO | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 0.474 |
| HrošiHRO / CEX | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 0.181 |
| RouenROU / FD1 | 0-2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | -0.144 |
| SavignySAV / FD1 | 0-2 | 11 | 26 | -15 | -1.085 |
TQB is not decorative
In a five-team round robin, second place can land in a multi-team tie quickly. The post-Day 2 simulation still reaches a tied final slot in 45.9% of paths, so Savigny's -15 and Rouen's -2 are future liabilities, not cosmetic.
/ Player impact
Day 2 PFI board
This is Day 2-only PFI, normalized against the same BD1/CRO/CEX/FD1 2026 game-log population. It is the event performance layer, not a scouting grade.
DELIYANNIS Harry
BrasschaatBRA / BD1Game
G4
PFI
10.0
3-for-3, 5 R, 0 RBI, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 SB
Reached six times and scored five runs one day after a complete-game pitching load.
DE LANNOY Steven
BrasschaatBRA / BD1Game
G4
PFI
10.0
4-for-5, 3 R, 5 RBI, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 SB
Five RBI and the three-run homer that capped Brasschaat's 12-run fifth.
CASTILLO ROJAS Jesus Ronaldo
HrošiHRO / CEXGame
G3
PFI
9.3
8.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 107 pitches
Eight innings, no walks, seven strikeouts; Hroši got the favorite win without a staff scramble.
NOVÝ Vítězslav
HrošiHRO / CEXGame
G3
PFI
8.6
3-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI, 1 3B, 1 K
Positive Day 2 pressure signal in the tournament reset.
DE WOLF Thomas
BrasschaatBRA / BD1Game
G4
PFI
8.5
3-for-3, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 HBP
Another Brasschaat traffic line inside the 19-run reset.
JOHNSON Ryan Johannes
HrošiHRO / CEXGame
G3
PFI
8.5
3-for-5, 2 R, 0 RBI, 2 2B, 2 K
Extra-base pressure in the one-run Hroši win.
BALLARDINI Lino
BrasschaatBRA / BD1Game
G4
PFI
8.2
3-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B
Brasschaat stacked event quality throughout the order.
ŘÍČNÝ Tomáš
HrošiHRO / CEXGame
G3
PFI
7.3
2-for-5, 1 R, 0 RBI, 2 2B, 1 K
Hroši's Day 2 offense was not loud, but the extra-base layer mattered.
MEGUMI Kento
RouenROU / FD1Game
G3
PFI
7.1
2-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B
Rouen's individual process still produced useful markers in another one-run loss.
JOOSSENS Matthew
BrasschaatBRA / BD1Game
G4
PFI
7.1
2-for-4, 3 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB
Run creation from the lower board turned the favorite hit into a rout.
SCOTT Lucas
BrasschaatBRA / BD1Game
G4
PFI
6.9
3-for-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 K
Another Braves bat inside a deep Day 2 run spike.
ITO Ryusuke
RouenROU / FD1Game
G3
PFI
6.4
8.0 IP, 13 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 139 pitches
Strong enough to keep Rouen alive, expensive enough to make the 139-pitch loss hurt twice.
| Rank | Player | Game | PFI | Line | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | DELIYANNIS HarryBrasschaat / BRA | G4 | 10.0 | 3-for-3, 5 R, 0 RBI, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 SB | Reached six times and scored five runs one day after a complete-game pitching load. |
| #2 | DE LANNOY StevenBrasschaat / BRA | G4 | 10.0 | 4-for-5, 3 R, 5 RBI, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 SB | Five RBI and the three-run homer that capped Brasschaat's 12-run fifth. |
| #3 | CASTILLO ROJAS Jesus RonaldoHroši / HRO | G3 | 9.3 | 8.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 107 pitches | Eight innings, no walks, seven strikeouts; Hroši got the favorite win without a staff scramble. |
| #4 | NOVÝ VítězslavHroši / HRO | G3 | 8.6 | 3-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI, 1 3B, 1 K | Positive Day 2 pressure signal in the tournament reset. |
| #5 | DE WOLF ThomasBrasschaat / BRA | G4 | 8.5 | 3-for-3, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 HBP | Another Brasschaat traffic line inside the 19-run reset. |
| #6 | JOHNSON Ryan JohannesHroši / HRO | G3 | 8.5 | 3-for-5, 2 R, 0 RBI, 2 2B, 2 K | Extra-base pressure in the one-run Hroši win. |
| #7 | BALLARDINI LinoBrasschaat / BRA | G4 | 8.2 | 3-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B | Brasschaat stacked event quality throughout the order. |
| #8 | ŘÍČNÝ TomášHroši / HRO | G3 | 7.3 | 2-for-5, 1 R, 0 RBI, 2 2B, 1 K | Hroši's Day 2 offense was not loud, but the extra-base layer mattered. |
| #9 | MEGUMI KentoRouen / ROU | G3 | 7.1 | 2-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B | Rouen's individual process still produced useful markers in another one-run loss. |
| #10 | JOOSSENS MatthewBrasschaat / BRA | G4 | 7.1 | 2-for-4, 3 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB | Run creation from the lower board turned the favorite hit into a rout. |
| #11 | SCOTT LucasBrasschaat / BRA | G4 | 6.9 | 3-for-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 K | Another Braves bat inside a deep Day 2 run spike. |
| #12 | ITO RyusukeRouen / ROU | G3 | 6.4 | 8.0 IP, 13 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 139 pitches | Strong enough to keep Rouen alive, expensive enough to make the 139-pitch loss hurt twice. |
/ Pitch-depth tax
Rouen and Savigny paid twice
Two losses each would be damaging on their own. Pair them with 276 total pitches per club, and Wednesday becomes a recovery problem as much as a standings problem.
Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1276
pitches
Two one-run losses with 276 pitches spent; Ito's 139-pitch complete game is a major recovery tax.
Lions de SavignySAV / FD1276
pitches
The table damage is paired with staff damage: 276 pitches, 26 runs allowed, and no clean reset game.
Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1263
pitches
Two wins and the best table position, but the 19-8 game still cost 146 pitches over seven innings.
Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO138
pitches
Idle on Day 2 after the walk-off; the question is whether Diaz's 128-pitch opener echoes into Hroši.
Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX123
pitches
Cleanest Day 2 exchange: 123 pitches, Castillo covered eight innings, and the favorite lane held.
/ Wednesday board
Updated predictions price the current damage
These are post-Day-2 matchup updates, not a replay of the pre-event card. Current run differential, Day 2 run differential, and staff workload/rest are layered onto StatPredict v2.
G5ROU 76.7%
ROUatSAVRouen Huskies at Lions de Savigny
ROU 6.9 - SAV 4.2
Rouen's two one-run losses still grade cleaner than Savigny's -15 table state.
G6HRO 80.9%
BOKatHROOlimpija Karlovac at Hroši Brno
HRO 6.8 - BOK 2.9
Hroši remain heavy favorites, with a small rest/workload haircut because Karlovac was idle on Day 2.
/ Source and model note
Official results, live simulation layer
This recap uses official WBSC Europe box-score data for games 3-4, plus the already-cached Day 1 official payloads. The tournament board fixes games 1-4, simulates games 5-10 from StatPredict probabilities, applies the same head-to-head/TQB/run-differential tiebreak stack, and prices the final from the forecast matchup board.
Tournament intelligence access
Turn Day 2 recap into live tournament control
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