/ CONFEDERATION CUP / DAY 1 RECAP / JUNE 15 / 2026

Karlovac changed the table with one ninth-inning swing

Day 1 did not bury the model, but it did punish the field. Brasschaat landed the clean forecast hit against Rouen, while Savigny turned eight innings of control into a damaging late loss that now makes Tuesday feel like an early elimination layer.

Published recap

June 15, 2026

Round-robin games 1-2, official Day 1 results.

StatPredict v2 pre-event forecast, conditioned on actual Day 1 results.

Official WBSC Europe box-score payloads plus the live tournament simulation layer.

Home Reports hub Forecast report Official schedule

HrošiHRO / CEX

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

RouenROU / FD1

SavignySAV / FD1

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Day 1 runs

Against a 21.7-run StatPredict opening board.

Winner calls

1-for-2

Brasschaat landed; the Savigny miss came after a ninth-inning collapse.

Tied final paths

69.9%

Second-place tiebreak pressure remains the tournament's core mechanic.

Pitch load

255 / 271

Winner pitches versus loser pitches across the two opening games.

/ Executive read

The scorelines moved the table faster than the quality read

The most important Day 1 note is not that the model missed Savigny. It is that Savigny controlled enough of the game to validate the lane, then lost the table anyway.

Day 1 produced 19 runs against a 21.7-run StatPredict board, a slightly colder run environment than the pre-event model expected.

StatPredict went 1-for-2 on winner calls, but the miss is more nuanced than the final score: Savigny held a 3-2 lead through eight.

The French pair is already under pressure. Rouen's loss is narrow; Savigny's loss is heavier because Karlovac now owns head-to-head and +4 run differential.

TQB is already part of the story. The post-Day 1 simulation still reaches a tied final slot in 69.9% of paths.

/ Forecast check

Opening board reality check

Brasschaat confirmed the slight favorite lane. Karlovac did not erase the Savigny process signal, but the ninth inning made the result expensive.

G1Hit

ROUat

BRA

Pre-game leanBRA 52.1%

ProjectedBRA 6.3 - ROU 5.8

ActualBRA 5 - ROU 4

Correct lean, one-run margin, and a slightly colder run environment than the pre-event board expected.

G2Miss

SAVat

BOK

Pre-game leanSAV 53.6%

ProjectedSAV 5.2 - BOK 4.4

ActualBOK 7 - SAV 3

The final winner missed, but Savigny led 3-2 through eight before the ninth-inning sequence detonated the table.

/ Live reset

Idle Hroši stay priced first, Brasschaat surge into control range

The reset is less charitable to the French pair. Rouen's damage is manageable; Savigny's is heavier because Karlovac now owns the head-to-head plus a four-run cushion.

Hroši BrnoHRO / CEX#1

Record

0-0

RF-RA

0-0 (+0)

Top two

79.0%

Title

53.0%

2.93

Move

+0.8 pp / +0.3 pp

Still the tournament reference point, now with both French challengers already carrying damage.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1#2

Record

1-0

RF-RA

5-4 (+1)

Top two

70.9%

Title

30.2%

2.81

Move

+18.4 pp / +7.3 pp

The Rouen win moved Brasschaat from credible chase lane into direct final-control range.

Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1#3

Record

0-1

RF-RA

4-5 (-1)

Top two

26.9%

Title

11.5%

1.75

Move

-19.2 pp / -7.6 pp

A one-run loss keeps the Huskies live, but Tuesday against Hroši now carries real table stress.

Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO#4

Record

1-0

RF-RA

7-3 (+4)

Top two

17.9%

Title

3.9%

1.72

Move

+7.8 pp / +1.6 pp

Karlovac owns the head-to-head with Savigny and the loudest run-differential swing of Day 1.

Lions de SavignySAV / FD1#5

Record

0-1

RF-RA

3-7 (-4)

Top two

5.3%

Title

1.4%

0.79

Move

-7.8 pp / -1.7 pp

The process was better than the result for eight innings, but the table penalty is severe.

Rank	Team	Rec.	RF-RA	Top two	Title	xW	Move	Read
#1	HrošiHRO / CEX	0-0	0-0 (+0)	79.0%	53.0%	2.93	+0.8 pp +0.3 pp	Still the tournament reference point, now with both French challengers already carrying damage.
#2	BrasschaatBRA / BD1	1-0	5-4 (+1)	70.9%	30.2%	2.81	+18.4 pp +7.3 pp	The Rouen win moved Brasschaat from credible chase lane into direct final-control range.
#3	RouenROU / FD1	0-1	4-5 (-1)	26.9%	11.5%	1.75	-19.2 pp -7.6 pp	A one-run loss keeps the Huskies live, but Tuesday against Hroši now carries real table stress.
#4	KarlovacBOK / CRO	1-0	7-3 (+4)	17.9%	3.9%	1.72	+7.8 pp +1.6 pp	Karlovac owns the head-to-head with Savigny and the loudest run-differential swing of Day 1.
#5	SavignySAV / FD1	0-1	3-7 (-4)	5.3%	1.4%	0.79	-7.8 pp -1.7 pp	The process was better than the result for eight innings, but the table penalty is severe.

/ Table mechanics

Karlovac own the first tiebreak marker

The current table is still only two games old, but the shape already matters because this format can become a second-place math problem quickly.

Team	Rec.	RF	RA	RD	TQB
KarlovacBOK / CRO	1-0	7	3	+4	0.474
BrasschaatBRA / BD1	1-0	5	4	+1	0.111
HrošiHRO / CEX	0-0	0	0	+0	0.000
RouenROU / FD1	0-1	4	5	-1	-0.111
SavignySAV / FD1	0-1	3	7	-4	-0.474

TQB is not decorative

In a five-team round robin, second place can land in a multi-team tie quickly. The post-Day 1 simulation still reaches a tied final slot in 69.9% of paths, so every late run already has tournament value.

/ Player impact

Day 1 PFI board

Game PFI starts with box-score batting, pitching and defensive impact, adjusts for game context and team share, then normalizes by current European game-log population. This is a one-game performance signal, not a scouting grade.

DE LANNOY Steven

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

10.0

2-for-4, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 SB

Extra-base damage in the one-run opener, with table leverage attached to every base.

HERRERA TORREZ Jose Francisco

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Game

PFI

10.0

3-for-5, 1 R, 6 RBI, 1 HR

The six-RBI line and walk-off grand slam changed the entire round-robin board.

VISSAC Martin

RouenROU / FD1

Game

PFI

8.8

2-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR

Rouen lost, but still put a premium power signal on the Day 1 board.

BALLARDINI Lino

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

8.6

3-for-5, 1 R, 0 RBI

A strong traffic line behind Brasschaat's first table move.

PENA PEREIRA Adrian

SavignySAV / FD1

Game

PFI

8.4

8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 106 pitches

Losing-side process signal: eight innings of two-run baseball before the bullpen collapse.

RIOUX Théo

RouenROU / FD1

Game

PFI

8.0

2-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB

On-base pressure and speed in a matchup that stayed inside one swing.

DIAZ Jose

KarlovacBOK / CRO

Game

PFI

7.9

8.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 128 pitches

Kept Karlovac close enough for the ninth-inning swing to matter.

DELIYANNIS Harry

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

7.1

9.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, 117 pitches

Complete-game win protected the bullpen while buying the Braves a premium result.

DE WOLF Thomas

BrasschaatBRA / BD1

Game

PFI

7.1

2-for-4, 0 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB

Third Brasschaat hitter inside the Day 1 top nine, a useful team-depth marker.

TAIDO Yui

RouenROU / FD1

#10

Game

PFI

6.8

7.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 98 pitches

Positive run-prevention value, but Rouen still paid starter workload in a loss.

BERT Joris

RouenROU / FD1

#11

Game

PFI

6.5

1-for-3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 SB

Secondary offensive pressure that keeps Rouen's process read alive.

LEBOUC Oscar

RouenROU / FD1

#12

Game

PFI

6.4

2-for-4, 0 R, 1 RBI

Another positive Huskies marker inside a result that still hurt the table.

Rank	Player	Game	PFI	Line	Read
#1	DE LANNOY StevenBrasschaat / BRA	G1	10.0	2-for-4, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 SB	Extra-base damage in the one-run opener, with table leverage attached to every base.
#2	HERRERA TORREZ Jose FranciscoKarlovac / BOK	G2	10.0	3-for-5, 1 R, 6 RBI, 1 HR	The six-RBI line and walk-off grand slam changed the entire round-robin board.
#3	VISSAC MartinRouen / ROU	G1	8.8	2-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR	Rouen lost, but still put a premium power signal on the Day 1 board.
#4	BALLARDINI LinoBrasschaat / BRA	G1	8.6	3-for-5, 1 R, 0 RBI	A strong traffic line behind Brasschaat's first table move.
#5	PENA PEREIRA AdrianSavigny / SAV	G2	8.4	8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 106 pitches	Losing-side process signal: eight innings of two-run baseball before the bullpen collapse.
#6	RIOUX ThéoRouen / ROU	G1	8.0	2-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB	On-base pressure and speed in a matchup that stayed inside one swing.
#7	DIAZ JoseKarlovac / BOK	G2	7.9	8.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 128 pitches	Kept Karlovac close enough for the ninth-inning swing to matter.
#8	DELIYANNIS HarryBrasschaat / BRA	G1	7.1	9.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, 117 pitches	Complete-game win protected the bullpen while buying the Braves a premium result.
#9	DE WOLF ThomasBrasschaat / BRA	G1	7.1	2-for-4, 0 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB	Third Brasschaat hitter inside the Day 1 top nine, a useful team-depth marker.
#10	TAIDO YuiRouen / ROU	G1	6.8	7.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 98 pitches	Positive run-prevention value, but Rouen still paid starter workload in a loss.
#11	BERT JorisRouen / ROU	G1	6.5	1-for-3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 SB	Secondary offensive pressure that keeps Rouen's process read alive.
#12	LEBOUC OscarRouen / ROU	G1	6.4	2-for-4, 0 R, 1 RBI	Another positive Huskies marker inside a result that still hurt the table.

/ Pitch-depth tax

The winning teams paid for leverage

Brasschaat protected its bullpen with a complete game. Karlovac got the table swing, but Diaz's 128 pitches mean that result was not free.

Olimpija KarlovacBOK / CRO

138

pitches

Win

Diaz threw 128 before Garcia closed the ninth. Karlovac bought leverage, not a fresh staff.

Rouen HuskiesROU / FD1

137

pitches

Loss

Taido and Magnien kept it close, but 137 pitches and a loss is a poor opening exchange.

Lions de SavignySAV / FD1

134

pitches

Loss

Pena delivered eight strong innings; Dahan's 28-pitch ninth created the damage.

Brasschaat BravesBRA / BD1

117

pitches

Win

Deliyannis absorbed all 27 outs. Expensive at the top, but bullpen-clean.

/ Tuesday board

Day 2 starts with pressure already priced in

The two Tuesday games now carry different kinds of leverage: Rouen need to stop the Hroši favorite case from hardening, while Savigny need an immediate repair job against a rising Brasschaat side.

G3HRO 66.0%

ROUat

HRO

Rouen Huskies at Hroši Brno

HRO 6.0 - ROU 4.3

Rouen cannot afford a cosmetic loss here; Hroši can make the opening defeat feel terminal.

G4BRA 71.9%

SAVat

BRA

Lions de Savigny at Brasschaat Braves

BRA 8.3 - SAV 5.3

Savigny needs an immediate upset or a later table rescue; Brasschaat can move into final-lane control.

/ Source and model note

Official results, live simulation layer

This recap uses official WBSC Europe box-score data and the existing StatPredict v2 Confederation Cup forecast. The tournament board fixes the two official Day 1 results, simulates the remaining round-robin games, applies the same head-to-head/TQB/run-differential tiebreak stack, and prices the final from the forecast matchup board.

G1: Brasschaat at Rouen G2: Savigny at Olimpija Karlovac

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