/ DBL / PFI REPORT / WEEK 2 / 2026

DBL Week 2 analytical report

Player Form Index report for German Bundesliga through two weekends (Apr 10-12 and Apr 17-19). Separates single-game Raw Impact from standardized PFI, then maps contextual leverage, z-score outliers, trend movement, and two-way deployment risk.

Data cut: Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Window: Weeks 1-2 (Apr 10-19, 2026)

Games captured: 24

HOMEREPORTS HUBDBL TEAM INDEX

Scope and sample

Coverage includes completed DBL games through April 19, 2026 (Weeks 1-2). Source chain: official DBL box scores to local player-form pipeline.

COMPLETED GAMES

24

MAPPED LOGS

579

RANKED PLAYERS

204

TEAMS IN SCOPE

12

DATA INPUTSBox scores (2026)PFI game logs (2026)PFI season table (2026)

Executive takeaways

CURRENT LEADERS

Bonn and Regensburg are both 4-0 with top team PFI marks (5.82 and 5.79).

LEVERAGE PEAK

Ry. Bollinger posted the largest contextual lift: +1.018 context delta in Game 19105 vs Stuttgart (2026-04-18).

OUTLIER SWING

Da. Lamb-Hunt hit +5.27 z-score while Na. Morales Cerrada dropped to -5.11 in the same game.

GAME-SCRIPT VOLATILITY

10 of 24 games (41.7%) were decided by 8+ runs in this opening two-week sample.

How to read Raw Impact vs PFI

METHOD FRAME

Raw Impact is single-game run-value contribution before seasonal smoothing.

Context Delta represents situational lift or drag relative to baseline run-value output.

PFI converts raw output into role-aware standardized scores on a 0-10 scale.

Reliability weighting limits noise from low-volume or micro-stint appearances.

DBL EXAMPLES

Da. Lamb-Hunt

Raw 6.28

PFI 10.00

Extreme offensive spike (Game 19065 vs Hünstetten STORM on 2026-04-11).

Ry. Bollinger

Raw 3.64

PFI 8.82

Pitching-led impact with league-best contextual leverage lift (Game 19105 vs Stuttgart, 2026-04-18).

Na. Morales Cerrada

Raw -11.52

PFI 0.00

Severe negative pitching outing (24 outs, 18 opponent runs).

League context and volatility

DBL opened with strong scoring variance and blowout-heavy game scripts despite a near-neutral mean PFI baseline.

RUN ENVIRONMENT SNAPSHOT

RUNS / GAME

11.38

273 total runs across 24 games

PFI MEAN

5.11

n = 579 game logs

PFI MEDIAN

4.78

Game-level center

RAW MEAN

0.63

Pre-standardization baseline

PFI P10

3.19

Lower-tail threshold

PFI P90

7.41

Upper-tail threshold

PFI TIER MIX

Elite (>=9.0)3.6%(21)

High (8.0-8.9)3.1%(18)

Middle (4.0-7.9)66.9%(387)

Low (<4.0)26.4%(153)

Disjoint buckets by design: High (8.0-8.9) excludes Elite (>= 9.0).

GAME MARGIN MIX

One-run8.3%

2-3 runs20.8%

4-7 runs29.2%

8+ runs41.7%

RAW ROLE MIX

Batting75.3%

Pitching24.7%

Defense0.0%

Team performance board

Bonn Capitals

4-0

PFI: 5.82

RD: +27

RF/G: 10.50

RA/G: 3.75

Guggenberger Legionäre

4-0

PFI: 5.79

RD: +28

RF/G: 8.50

RA/G: 1.50

Heidenheim Heideköpfe

3-1

PFI: 5.61

RD: +15

RF/G: 8.00

RA/G: 4.25

Hamburg Stealers

3-1

PFI: 5.55

RD: +16

RF/G: 8.75

RA/G: 4.75

Untouchables Paderborn

3-1

PFI: 5.28

RD: +13

RF/G: 5.75

RA/G: 2.50

Stuttgart Reds

2-2

PFI: 5.13

RD: +5

RF/G: 6.50

RA/G: 5.25

Hünstetten STORM

1-3

PFI: 5.05

RD: -13

RF/G: 6.50

RA/G: 9.75

Cologne Cardinals

1-3

PFI: 5.04

RD: -6

RF/G: 4.25

RA/G: 5.75

Mainz Athletics

2-2

PFI: 4.84

RD: -5

RF/G: 3.00

RA/G: 4.25

München-Haar Disciples

0-4

PFI: 4.49

RD: -18

RF/G: 3.00

RA/G: 7.50

Gauting Indians

1-3

PFI: 4.37

RD: -25

RF/G: 3.25

RA/G: 9.50

Dortmund Wanderers

0-4

PFI: 4.13

RD: -37

RF/G: 0.25

RA/G: 9.50

TEAM PFI DISTRIBUTION

Bonn and Regensburg are both unbeaten, but Bonn carries the stronger offensive ceiling (10.5 RF/G).
Hamburg and Heidenheim profile as live challengers with positive run environments and above-average team PFI.
Dortmund, Gauting, and München-Haar are currently below league form baseline and need prevention stability.

Role-specific market read

Hitters

Logs 466

PFI 5.13

Raw 0.94

Rel 0.89

Pitchers

Logs 104

PFI 5.04

Raw -0.56

Rel 0.82

Two-way

Logs 9

PFI 4.95

Raw -1.49

Rel 0.96

Top Single-Game Raw Performances

Highest single-game raw run-value outcomes in the DBL Week 1-2 sample.

1. Da. Lamb-Hunt

6.281

BON vs Hünstetten STORM

#19065 on 2026-04-11

2. Ga. Owens

4.882

HDH vs Stuttgart Reds

#19129 on 2026-04-11

3. We. Bocio Cabral

4.823

HUN vs Hamburg Stealers

#19041 on 2026-04-18

4. Pa. Stattler

4.547

COC vs Untouchables Paderborn

#19034 on 2026-04-11

5. Ko. Sasagawa

3.908

REG vs Gauting Indians

#19095 on 2026-04-12

6. Mc. Pearce

3.881

BON vs Cologne Cardinals

#19073 on 2026-04-19

7. Si. Bäumer

3.872

BON vs Cologne Cardinals

#19040 on 2026-04-18

8. To. Maul

3.777

GAU vs Stuttgart Reds

#19105 on 2026-04-18

Stable season form leaders (>=2 games)

Player-level form leaderboard with minimum sample filter at 2 games.

1. Mc. Pearce

8.10

BON | 4 games | conf 0.850

2. Wi. Germaine

7.61

HDH | 4 games | conf 0.850

3. Ni. Sacasa Petzsch

7.02

REG | 4 games | conf 0.850

4. Em. Götz

6.87

UNT | 4 games | conf 0.850

5. Os. Syrén

6.85

HDH | 2 games | conf 0.653

6. TRACEY Max

6.80

HHS | 4 games | conf 0.850

7. Ma. Ehmcke

6.78

HHS | 4 games | conf 0.850

8. Ko. Sasagawa

6.74

REG | 2 games | conf 0.653

9. Ma. Bendrien

6.62

BON | 4 games | conf 0.850

10. Si. Bäumer

6.48

BON | 4 games | conf 0.850

High-leverage contextual impact

Sorted by context delta among high-leverage pitcher workloads (leverage >= 0.90 and outs >= 12).

Z-score anomalies (extremes)

Da. Lamb-Hunt and Na. Morales Cerrada define the widest positive/negative single-game tails in the sample.

Form volatility and regression candidates

POSITIVE BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

Si. Keimes (COC)

+1.165

2.5 -> 6.7 -> 7.9 -> 6.8

Mo. van Bergen (STU)

+0.969

3.2 -> 8.8 -> 7.7 -> 4.7

Ga. Owens (HDH)

+0.905

3.8 -> 10 -> 3.1 -> 9

NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

Al. Schmidt (REG)

-1.535

10 -> 3.5 -> 4.7 -> 3.4

No. Staps (REG)

-1.528

9.6 -> 3.2 -> 3.6 -> 3.6

Er. Brenk (BON)

-1.197

9.9 -> 5.7 -> 5.4 -> 4.3

MOST BANKABLE FORM

Is. Lucena Montero (HHS) | SD 0.33 | season 6.01

TRACEY Max (HHS) | SD 0.49 | season 6.80

Ni. Sacasa Petzsch (REG) | SD 0.75 | season 7.02

Ju. Moser (UNT) | SD 0.90 | season 6.42

HIGH-VARIANCE CEILING

Ga. Owens (HDH) | SD 3.06 | season 6.43

We. Bocio Cabral (HUN) | SD 2.37 | season 5.97

Pa. Stattler (COC) | SD 2.36 | season 5.75

Mo. van Bergen (STU) | SD 2.25 | season 5.93

TEAM WEEK-TO-WEEK MOVEMENT

Bar scale: relative absolute delta (100% = HUN +1.341).

HUN

↑ +1.341

UNT

↑ +0.859

STU

↑ +0.776

GAU

↑ +0.424

HDH

↑ +0.248

DOW

↓ -0.325

HHS

↓ -0.340

HAA

↓ -0.353

COC

↓ -0.390

BON

↓ -0.522

REG

↓ -0.960

MAI

↓ -1.070

True two-way value (deployment risk)

Games where positive batting was partially or fully offset by negative pitching impact.

Jo. Martin Carrion (DOW)

67.1% bat / 32.9% pitch

Si. Weinsteiger (HAA)

54.1% bat / 45.9% pitch

Ph. Meyer (HUN)

43.5% bat / 56.5% pitch

Za. Johnson (HUN)

44.4% bat / 55.6% pitch

Next two-week recommendations

1. Bonn/Regensburg: keep current advantage by preserving starter-to-bullpen bridge quality in close scripts.
2. Heidenheim/Hamburg: chase top-tier status by reducing downside starts rather than forcing extra offense.
3. Hünstetten and Untouchables are the largest week-over-week risers; hold current deployment patterns until trend confirms in Week 3.
4. Mainz and Regensburg carry the steepest short-window pullback; monitor fatigue and sequencing risk before role changes.
5. Two-way assets with negative mound translation (Meyer, Weinsteiger, Johnson) should be bat-first unless bullpen depth is constrained.
6. Use z-score extremes as scouting flags, not standalone decisions; blend with reliability and multi-game trend context.
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