Live board
3 / 6
Three Day 2 winner calls hit; Béziers and La Rochelle supplied the miss-side story.
/ CHALLENGE DE FRANCE / DAY 2 RECAP / MAY 15 / 2026
Day 2 exploded the run environment and locked the semifinal field
The tournament changed identity on Friday. After a 29-run opening day, Day 2 delivered 74 runs, two survival flips by Béziers, a La Rochelle B5 breakout, and a final four of Montpellier, La Rochelle, Béziers, and Rouen.
Run environment
74 runs
6.17 runs per team-game, well above Day 1 and the pre-event baseline.
Run gap
+15.2
Actual runs over the live Day 2 projection of 58.8.
Final four
4 locked
Montpellier, La Rochelle, Béziers, and Rouen are through.
/ Day 2 board
Three calls hit, but the misses set the bracket
Béziers flipped both survival gates. La Rochelle turned a 41.5% B5 lane into an 11-1 semifinal entry.
B3Hit
PUCvs
LARPre-game lean
LAR 69.5%
ProjectedLAR 5.7 - PUC 3.0
ActualLAR 9 - PUC 7
La Rochelle was priced to survive; Paris made it a 16-run stress test.
A3Miss
BEZvs
TOUPre-game lean
TOU 67.2%
ProjectedTOU 5.3 - BEZ 3.4
ActualBEZ 3 - TOU 2
Béziers flipped the host-side survival lane in eight innings.
B4Hit
SAVvs
ROUPre-game lean
ROU 61.8%
ProjectedROU 5.5 - SAV 3.4
ActualROU 7 - SAV 3
Rouen converted the direct semifinal path, but paid Ito's full-game workload.
A4Hit
SENvs
MTPPre-game lean
MTP 63.7%
ProjectedMTP 8.0 - SEN 5.8
ActualMTP 14 - SEN 5
Montpellier turned a moderate favorite slot into the first true blowout.
B5Miss
SAVvsLARPre-game lean
SAV 58.5%
ProjectedSAV 4.7 - LAR 4.5
ActualLAR 11 - SAV 1
La Rochelle flipped the B5 gate by ten runs and removed Savigny.
A5Miss
BEZvsSENPre-game lean
SEN 63.1%
ProjectedSEN 5.7 - BEZ 3.8
ActualBEZ 8 - SEN 4
Béziers flipped the A5 gate and became the fourth semifinalist.
/ Run environment
The tournament moved from prevention to compressed-staff offense
Day 1 played low. Day 2 did not merely regress; it overshot the live board by more than fifteen runs.
Day 1
29
3.63 runs/team-game
Day 2
74
6.17 runs/team-game
Gap
+15.2
runs over projection
The biggest reason was not one outlier. A4, B5, and A5 all broke open after the fourth inning, which makes Saturday less about static team strength and more about how many usable arms each finalist path has left.
/ Live bracket reset
The semifinal field is locked; Rouen still owns the top title lane
Montpellier is close enough to make this a two-favorite board. La Rochelle and Béziers are live disruptors with heavier workload bills.
#1
alive
Rouen HuskiesRouenCleanest bracket position, with Ito's 117 pitches as the main cost.
Semi
100%
Final
69.7%
Title
38.4%
Title move
+8.5%
#2
alive
Montpellier BarracudasMontpellierClose enough to Rouen that the title board is now a two-favorite race.
Semi
100%
Final
60.3%
Title
33.0%
Title move
+7.1%
#3
alive
La Rochelle BoucaniersLa RochelleThe biggest Day 2 riser after turning B5 into an 11-1 statement.
Semi
100%
Final
39.7%
Title
19.4%
Title move
+13.8%
#4
alive
Béziers PiratesBéziersLower-probability, but now proven in two survival-game flips.
Semi
100%
Final
30.3%
Title
9.2%
Title move
+8.1%
#5
out
Paris Université ClubPUCOut in B3, but pushed La Rochelle into a high-run survival test.
Semi
0%
Final
0%
Title
0%
Title move
-0.7%
#6
out
Savigny-sur-Orge LionsSavignyDay 1 equity disappeared after B4/B5 run prevention collapsed.
Semi
0%
Final
0%
Title
0%
Title move
-18.1%
#7
out
Sénart TempliersSénartVera's Day 1 lift finally met the Day 2 staff-tax wall.
Semi
0%
Final
0%
Title
0%
Title move
-12.5%
#8
out
Stade Toulousain TigersToulouseThe host-side run-conversion issue never recovered.
Semi
0%
Final
0%
Title
0%
Title move
-6.2%
/ Semifinal board
Two favorites, two survival-side disruptors
The matchup board is now clean, but the pitching ledger beneath it is not.
C1MTP 60.3%
LARvsMTPLa Rochelle at Montpellier
MTP 7.3 - LAR 5.9
Montpellier has the cleaner title profile; La Rochelle has the hotter elimination-game offense and the heavier pitching bill.
C2ROU 69.7%
ROUvsBEZRouen at Béziers
BEZ 2.6 - ROU 6.9
Rouen is the strongest remaining favorite; Béziers is lower-probability but has already flipped two survival games.
/ Final paths
Montpellier vs Rouen is the favorite final, not the only live lane
La Rochelle's B5 jump made the second path real. Béziers' path is narrower because the C2 matchup asks for another upset after a 294-pitch Friday.
Path probability
42.0%
MTP vs ROU
The most likely final and the cleanest two-favorite route.
Path probability
27.7%
LAR vs ROU
La Rochelle's B5 jump makes this a real second lane.
Path probability
18.3%
MTP vs BEZ
Béziers needs another upset, but the A-side path is open.
Path probability
12.0%
LAR vs BEZ
The all-survival final is narrow, but no longer fantasy after Day 2.
/ Day 2 PFI board
Montpellier supplied the top spike; La Rochelle and Béziers supplied the bracket turns
PFI separated pure scoreboard result from the players who changed the game state.
| Rank | Player | Game | PFI | Line | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | BOUNIOL DorianMontpellier / MTP | A4 | 10.0 | 3-for-4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 SB | Best Day 2 event spike; power plus speed in Montpellier's 14-run A4. |
| #2 | MENDEZ CANELO Jorge LuisMontpellier / MTP | A4 | 9.3 | 2-for-4, 4 R, 3 RBI, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 SB | Four-run pressure profile and another Montpellier middle-order separator. |
| #3 | NISHIKAWA RyosukeRouen / ROU | B4 | 9.2 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 4 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR | Rouen's direct-semifinal swing; 4 RBI and the top offensive B4 signal. |
| #4 | BRIONES EstebanLa Rochelle / LAR | B5 | 9.1 | 3-for-4, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR | La Rochelle's best three-game event form; B5 confirmed the trend. |
| #5 | ITO RyusukeRouen / ROU | B4 | 9.0 | 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 117 pitches | Complete-game prevention anchor, but the 117-pitch cost matters for the weekend. |
| #6 | SCHECHTER Aviad JoshuaLa Rochelle / LAR | B5 | 8.9 | 1-for-1, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 3 BB | Elite B5 plate-control/power line: homer plus three walks. |
| #7 | GONZALEZ MOLERO Luis EloyBéziers / BEZ | A3 | 8.3 | 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 79 pitches | A3 rescue arm; five shutout innings changed Béziers' tournament. |
| #8 | ACUNA IvanSavigny / SAV | B4 | 7.8 | 2-for-3, 0 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HBP | Savigny's best Day 2 signal even as the club fell out. |
| #9 | GONZALEZ LorenzoPUC / PUC | B3 | 7.8 | 2-for-3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 2B, 1 HBP | High-value Day 2 contribution in a one-game exit. |
| #10 | BOWERS BretPUC / PUC | B3 | 7.6 | 2-for-4, 1 R, 4 RBI, 2 2B | Paris lost B3, but the top of the lineup made La Rochelle work. |
| #11 | LAUFENBUCHLER TristanLa Rochelle / LAR | B5 | 7.6 | 3-for-4, 4 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B | Four-run table setting in La Rochelle's semifinal-entry blowout. |
| #12 | FARINA Patrick JamesMontpellier / MTP | A4 | 7.4 | 2-for-3, 1 R, 3 RBI, 2 BB | More Montpellier lineup depth behind the A4 separation. |
| #13 | TRANBARGER LiamBéziers / BEZ | A5 | 7.4 | 3-for-4, 3 R, 1 RBI, 1 K | A5 run creation that helped Béziers finish the second survival flip. |
| #14 | DADLANI MatthewLa Rochelle / LAR | B5 | 7.3 | 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K, 110 pitches | Semifinal-ticket arm; 110 pitches is the caution label. |
| #15 | ZAN MaelMontpellier / MTP | A4 | 7.1 | 1-for-4, 1 R, 3 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K | Power contribution inside Montpellier's first true tournament blowout. |
/ Pitch-depth ledger
Béziers and La Rochelle reached the semis with the heaviest Friday tax
The semifinalists are not arriving with equal staff shape. Day 2 made workload visible.
Béziers PiratesBéziers294
D2 pitches
Tournament total
384
Semifinalist; Friday tax is the heaviest of the final four.
Sénart TempliersSénart260
D2 pitches
Tournament total
375
Eliminated; 260 Friday pitches after Vera's Day 1 complete game finally showed.
La Rochelle BoucaniersLa Rochelle251
D2 pitches
Tournament total
360
Semifinalist; Dadlani's 110 pitches are the headline constraint.
Savigny-sur-Orge LionsSavigny189
D2 pitches
Tournament total
349
Eliminated; run prevention collapsed across B4/B5 after a strong Day 1 result.
Montpellier BarracudasMontpellier136
D2 pitches
Tournament total
248
Semifinalist; strong offensive day, but 9 walks allowed keeps the staff read open.
Paris Université ClubPUC119
D2 pitches
Tournament total
272
Eliminated in B3; offense produced top signals despite exit.
Rouen HuskiesRouen117
D2 pitches
Tournament total
234
Semifinalist; cleanest position, with Ito's complete game as the main cost.
Stade Toulousain TigersToulouse116
D2 pitches
Tournament total
238
Eliminated in A3; host-side run conversion never recovered.
/ What changed after Day 2
The field compressed, then separated
Early Day 2 games were close; late Day 2 games were decisive. That timing matters for Saturday.
Five reads from the reset
/01
Day 2 was not a small environment correction. The tournament jumped from 3.63 to 6.17 runs per team-game.
/02
Montpellier and Rouen converted winner-bracket position into direct semifinal lanes.
/03
La Rochelle and Béziers had to buy their way back through offense, depth, and expensive pitching days.
/04
The final four are set, but the semifinal board is not symmetric: Rouen and Montpellier arrive with cleaner paths.
/05
The most likely final is Montpellier vs Rouen, but La Rochelle's B5 jump made a second lane real.
/ Official box scores
The recap is anchored to the Day 2 WBSC/FFBS game payloads
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