Forecast check
3 / 4
The Statbase engine hit three Day 2 winners; Draci delivered the table-changing miss.
/ BCL EUROPE / DAY 2 RECAP / ROTTERDAM + REGENSBURG / MAY 23 / 2026
Day 2 settled first place and sharpened the Sunday gates
The board projected 46.3 runs. The official games produced 54, with 87 hits, 12 errors, and 1,194 tracked pitches. Neptunus and Parma now control first place; Tenerife-Heidenheim and Draci-Oosterhout carry the qualification tension.
Run environment
54 runs
6.75 runs per team-game, with the full event now at 106 runs through eight games.
Qualification gates
2 direct
Tenerife-Heidenheim in Rotterdam; Draci-Oosterhout in Regensburg.
Pitch volume
1,194
Day 2 tracked pitches; Draci and Regensburg both spent 176+ in the table-changing game.
/ Day 2 board
Three favorites landed; Draci changed the table
The miss was the most important result: Draci beat Regensburg from a 25.6% lane after trailing 4-0 in the first inning.
ROT / G3Hit
Group Rotterdam
Tenerife answered the Day 1 collapse with 19 hits and six late insurance runs. The favorite call landed, but the game still confirmed Nettuno's individual-bat signal.
MARat
NETMAR 16 - NET 6
Pre-game lean
MAR 84.3%
Projection
NET 2.9 - MAR 11.0
PFI signal
Eliezer Orlando D'Amico Alvarez, NET, 10.0
Table consequence
Tenerife remains the clear Rotterdam second-place favorite, while Nettuno dropped out of the top-two table.
ROT / G4Hit
Group Rotterdam
Neptunus did not just win the gate game; it removed Heidenheim's offense from the table behind a seven-inning shutout.
HDHat
NEPNEP 6 - HDH 0
Pre-game lean
NEP 67.1%
Projection
NEP 6.9 - HDH 4.0
PFI signal
SULBARÁN Juancarlos, NEP, 9.2
Table consequence
Neptunus has first-place control, and Heidenheim now needs to beat Tenerife directly to advance.
REG / G3Hit
Group Regensburg
Parma contained the Twins' Day 1 upset and validated the Serie A benchmark with run creation plus a lower pitching tax.
TWIat
PARPAR 6 - TWI 2
Pre-game lean
PAR 70.6%
Projection
PAR 6.1 - TWI 3.3
PFI signal
Garcia Rodriguez Robel Estiwal, PAR, 8.5
Table consequence
Parma owns first-place control; Oosterhout must now beat Draci to turn the Day 1 upset into qualification.
REG / G4Miss
Group Regensburg
Draci flipped the game after trailing 4-0 in the first inning, turning the host-control story into a Brno recovery story.
REGat
DRADRA 11 - REG 7
Pre-game lean
REG 74.4%
Projection
DRA 3.8 - REG 8.3
PFI signal
COLINA Jose, DRA, 9.1
Table consequence
Regensburg is out of top-two equity. Draci now holds the stronger second-place lane before facing Oosterhout.
/ Run environment
The event kept its high-run shape
Day 2 landed 7.7 runs above the live board and pushed the full event to 106 runs through eight games.
ROT / Neptunus Familiestadion, Rotterdam
Group Rotterdam
Day 2 runs
28
Projected
24.8
Actual R/TG
7.00
Board R/TG
6.20
Gap
+3.2
Baseline R/TG 5.51
Rotterdam stayed above expectation even with a Neptunus shutout because Tenerife-Nettuno produced 22 runs.
REG / Armin-Wolf-Baseball-Arena, Regensburg
Group Regensburg
Day 2 runs
26
Projected
21.5
Actual R/TG
6.50
Board R/TG
5.38
Gap
+4.5
Baseline R/TG 4.95
Regensburg moved from Day 1 compression into Day 2 volatility, driven by the 18-run Draci-Regensburg reversal.
/ Group reset
Neptunus and Parma control first place; the gates are for second
The table now has two control teams and two direct qualification games. That is the clean federation-facing story entering Sunday.
ROT
Group Rotterdam reset
Neptunus owns first-place control. Tenerife and Heidenheim now play the direct second-place gate, while Nettuno is out of top-two equity but still producing individual signal.
Curacao Neptunus RotterdamNEP / HDK#1Record
2-0
RF-RA
21-4
Run diff
+17
TPM/PFI/PVI
70 / 5.76 / 62.73
1st
100%
Top 2
100%
xW
2.75
Group control is now mathematical in the model: 2-0, +17, and the best workload profile in Rotterdam.
Tenerife MarlinsMAR / ESP#2Record
1-1
RF-RA
20-21
Run diff
-1
TPM/PFI/PVI
71 / 5.82 / 83.09
1st
0%
Top 2
78.6%
xW
1.79
Still the clear second-place favorite, but only because the Sunday gate against Heidenheim remains in front of them.
Heidenheim HeideköpfeHDH / DBL#3Record
1-1
RF-RA
9-13
Run diff
-4
TPM/PFI/PVI
62 / 5.48 / 65.66
1st
0%
Top 2
21.4%
xW
1.21
The opener still matters, but the 6-0 loss turned Sunday into a direct upset requirement.
A.S.D. Nettuno B.C. 1945NET / Serie A#4Record
0-2
RF-RA
13-25
Run diff
-12
TPM/PFI/PVI
60 / 5.29 / 56.82
1st
0%
Top 2
0%
xW
0.25
Eliminated from top-two equity; individual PFI remains stronger than the team table.
| Rank | Team | Record | RF-RA | Diff | TPM/PFI/PVI | 1st | Top 2 | xW | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | NeptunusNEP / HDK | 2-0 | 21-4 | +17 | 70 / 5.76 / 62.73 | 100% | 100% | 2.75 | Group control is now mathematical in the model: 2-0, +17, and the best workload profile in Rotterdam. |
| #2 | TenerifeMAR / ESP | 1-1 | 20-21 | -1 | 71 / 5.82 / 83.09 | 0% | 78.6% | 1.79 | Still the clear second-place favorite, but only because the Sunday gate against Heidenheim remains in front of them. |
| #3 | HeidenheimHDH / DBL | 1-1 | 9-13 | -4 | 62 / 5.48 / 65.66 | 0% | 21.4% | 1.21 | The opener still matters, but the 6-0 loss turned Sunday into a direct upset requirement. |
| #4 | NettunoNET / Serie A | 0-2 | 13-25 | -12 | 60 / 5.29 / 56.82 | 0% | 0% | 0.25 | Eliminated from top-two equity; individual PFI remains stronger than the team table. |
REG
Group Regensburg reset
Parma has control of first place. Draci's comeback against Regensburg moved the second-place race into a direct Draci-Oosterhout gate.
1949 Parma Baseball Club A.S.D.PAR / Serie A#1Record
2-0
RF-RA
18-4
Run diff
+14
TPM/PFI/PVI
63 / 5.39 / 63.30
1st
100%
Top 2
100%
xW
2.31
First place is locked in the model; Parma's domestic benchmark and event execution now agree.
Draci BrnoDRA / CEX#2Record
1-1
RF-RA
13-19
Run diff
-6
TPM/PFI/PVI
60 / 5.19 / 58.99
1st
0%
Top 2
65.5%
xW
1.66
Draci bought the stronger second-place lane by flipping Regensburg from a 25.6% path.
Oosterhout TwinsTWI / HDK#3Record
1-1
RF-RA
4-7
Run diff
-3
TPM/PFI/PVI
61 / 5.16 / 55.35
1st
0%
Top 2
34.5%
xW
1.34
Still live, but the Parma loss turned the Draci game into a must-win gate.
Guggenberger LegionäreREG / DBL#4Record
0-2
RF-RA
8-13
Run diff
-5
TPM/PFI/PVI
65 / 5.68 / 58.12
1st
0%
Top 2
0%
xW
0.69
Two losses erased the host's pre-event benchmark edge from the qualification table.
| Rank | Team | Record | RF-RA | Diff | TPM/PFI/PVI | 1st | Top 2 | xW | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | ParmaPAR / Serie A | 2-0 | 18-4 | +14 | 63 / 5.39 / 63.30 | 100% | 100% | 2.31 | First place is locked in the model; Parma's domestic benchmark and event execution now agree. |
| #2 | DraciDRA / CEX | 1-1 | 13-19 | -6 | 60 / 5.19 / 58.99 | 0% | 65.5% | 1.66 | Draci bought the stronger second-place lane by flipping Regensburg from a 25.6% path. |
| #3 | TwinsTWI / HDK | 1-1 | 4-7 | -3 | 61 / 5.16 / 55.35 | 0% | 34.5% | 1.34 | Still live, but the Parma loss turned the Draci game into a must-win gate. |
| #4 | RegensburgREG / DBL | 0-2 | 8-13 | -5 | 65 / 5.68 / 58.12 | 0% | 0% | 0.69 | Two losses erased the host's pre-event benchmark edge from the qualification table. |
/ Sunday qualification board
Two direct gates decide the top-two field
Sunday is no longer a broad round-robin board. It is Tenerife-Heidenheim and Draci-Oosterhout, with Neptunus and Parma already holding first-place control.
ROT / G5MAR 78.6%
Group Rotterdam
MARatHDHTenerife Marlins at Heidenheim Heideköpfe
HDH 3.9 - MAR 10.9
Direct second-place gate in Rotterdam: Tenerife is favored, but Heidenheim owns the same 1-1 record and needs one clean offensive day.
ROT / G6NEP 74.8%
Group Rotterdam
NETatNEPA.S.D. Nettuno B.C. 1945 at Curacao Neptunus Rotterdam
NEP 6.9 - NET 3.0
Neptunus is already priced as group winner; Nettuno is out of top-two equity but still affects event PFI and workload reads.
REG / G5DRA 65.5%
Group Regensburg
DRAatTWIDraci Brno at Oosterhout Twins
TWI 3.8 - DRA 6.5
Direct second-place gate in Regensburg: Draci's rebound has made this the group decider against the Twins.
REG / G6REG 69.4%
Group Regensburg
REGatPARGuggenberger Legionäre at 1949 Parma Baseball Club A.S.D.
PAR 3.6 - REG 7.3
Parma has first-place control; Regensburg cannot advance but still carries benchmark and pride/signal value.
/ Benchmark layer
European Unified is the cross-league control
Domestic data from Spain, Serie A, Hoofdklasse, DBL, and Czech Extraliga is translated into a common European event scale before BCL performance is layered on top.
| Team | Group | Domestic | TPM | Pre-event PFI | PVI | Event read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NeptunusNEP / HDK | ROT | HDK | 70 | 5.76 | 62.73 | HDK benchmark plus host context has validated cleanly: first-place control, +17 differential, lowest group pitch tax. |
| TenerifeMAR / ESP | ROT | ESP | 71 | 5.82 | 83.09 | Top pre-event PVI in Rotterdam has translated into 20 runs and 29 hits, but the prevention side still has to stabilize. |
| HeidenheimHDH / DBL | ROT | DBL | 62 | 5.48 | 65.66 | DBL profile remains live only through the Tenerife gate; the Neptunus shutout damaged the offensive translation. |
| NettunoNET / Serie A | ROT | Serie A | 60 | 5.29 | 56.82 | Serie A profile produced real individual PFI, but team-level run prevention removed top-two equity. |
| ParmaPAR / Serie A | REG | Serie A | 63 | 5.39 | 63.30 | Serie A benchmark is now confirmed by event results: 2-0, +14, and two top-six event PFI players. |
| DraciDRA / CEX | REG | CEX | 60 | 5.19 | 58.99 | Czech benchmark looked modest pre-event; Day 2 converted it into the stronger second-place probability. |
| TwinsTWI / HDK | REG | HDK | 61 | 5.16 | 55.35 | HDK underdog profile is still alive because the Day 1 upset banked a direct Sunday gate. |
| RegensburgREG / DBL | REG | DBL | 65 | 5.68 | 58.12 | Highest Regensburg TPM entered as host-side strength, but the event layer overruled it after two losses. |
/ Day 2 PFI board
Power bats, a shutout, and Draci's rebound line
PFI separates team result from player signal. Nettuno lost top-two equity but still produced the day's loudest individual bat.
| Rank | Player | Game | Game PFI | Pre-game PFI | Line | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | D'AMICO ALVAREZ Eliezer OrlandoNettuno / NET | G3 | 10.0 | 5.39 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR | Two-homer losing-side signal; Nettuno exited the top-two race but still produced one of the day's loudest individual bats. |
| #2 | PERES NUNES Ian AlekhandroTenerife / MAR | G3 | 10.0 | 5.29 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 6 RBI, 2 HR, 2 K | Tenerife's response profile restored the run environment and kept the Marlins in control of second-place probability. |
| #3 | VALERIO ABREU Edison DamianTenerife / MAR | G3 | 9.5 | 6.67 | 3-for-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB | A second Tenerife power line behind the 16-run reset. |
| #4 | SULBARÁN JuancarlosNeptunus / NEP | G4 | 9.2 | 7.91 | 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 91 pitches | Neptunus converted the host benchmark into tournament control; Sulbarán turned the gate game into a shutout. |
| #5 | COLINA JoseDraci / DRA | G4 | 9.1 | 6.08 | 1-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB | Draci's rebound profile reversed the group gate and moved Brno into the second-place lane. |
| #6 | WINKLER JakubDraci / DRA | G4 | 8.5 | 5.32 | 2-for-3, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 2 BB | High-leverage traffic in the comeback game against Regensburg. |
| #7 | Garcia Rodriguez Robel EstiwalParma / PAR | G3 | 8.5 | 5.51 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 K | Parma validated Day 1 rather than just surviving it: run creation, rotation value, and table control all held. |
| #8 | BATISTA DE JESUS Nathanael ManolyNettuno / NET | G3 | 8.4 | 6.37 | 2-for-5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 K | Nettuno's team table is gone, but the individual-bat board is not empty. |
| #9 | BOCCHI MatteoParma / PAR | G3 | 7.9 | 6.14 | 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 92 pitches | Parma got table control without a runaway pitching tax. |
| #10 | ČERVINKA MartinDraci / DRA | G4 | 7.9 | 5.12 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 0 RBI, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K | Another Draci rebound line from the table-changing win. |
| #11 | GERALDO GARCIA Manuel AntonioParma / PAR | G3 | 7.7 | 5.57 | 3-for-4, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 K | A depth bat inside Parma's cleanest control profile. |
| #12 | Ko. SasagawaRegensburg / REG | G4 | 7.6 | 6.06 | 3-for-4, 2 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K | High-value contribution in a loss that still removed the host from top-two equity. |
| #13 | RUBEN MarnixNeptunus / NEP | G4 | 7.6 | 5.34 | 3-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI | Support-line value behind Neptunus control. |
| #14 | COLLINS DarrylNeptunus / NEP | G4 | 7.5 | 6.39 | 3-for-4, 0 R, 1 RBI | Neptunus' offensive floor held while Sulbarán controlled the gate game. |
| #15 | GALVAN AREVALO Lesther AaronTenerife / MAR | G3 | 7.3 | 6.34 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HBP, 1 K | Tenerife's response profile was broader than the two-homer headline. |
| #16 | JAMANIKA SheadionNeptunus / NEP | G4 | 7.2 | 5.16 | 1-for-2, 3 R, 0 RBI, 2 BB | Table-setting value in Neptunus' first-place confirmation. |
/ Event PFI leaderboard
Sulbarán and Garcia Rodriguez sit on top after two days
The event leaderboard blends Day 1 and Day 2 performance into the current BCL form board.
| Rank | Player | Group | Event PFI | Last | Games | Delta | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | SULBARÁN JuancarlosNeptunus / NEP | ROT | 9.19 | 9.19 | 1 | +1.28 | 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 91 pitches |
| #2 | Garcia Rodriguez Robel EstiwalParma / PAR | REG | 9.15 | 8.49 | 2 | +2.98 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 K |
| #3 | JAMANIKA SheadionNeptunus / NEP | ROT | 8.28 | 7.15 | 2 | +1.99 | 1-for-2, 3 R, 0 RBI, 2 BB |
| #4 | BATISTA DE JESUS Nathanael ManolyNettuno / NET | ROT | 8.27 | 8.35 | 2 | +1.98 | 2-for-5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 K |
| #5 | ISHIKAWA AyumuTwins / TWI | REG | 8.01 | 8.01 | 1 | +1.97 | 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 97 pitches |
| #6 | BOCCHI MatteoParma / PAR | REG | 7.88 | 7.88 | 1 | +1.74 | 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 92 pitches |
| #7 | HERNANDEZ RUIZ FrankTenerife / MAR | ROT | 7.73 | 6.05 | 2 | -0.59 | 2-for-6, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 2 K |
| #8 | BATTIONI TommasoParma / PAR | REG | 7.71 | 5.92 | 2 | +0.60 | 1-for-3, 1 R, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB |
| #9 | D'AMICO ALVAREZ Eliezer OrlandoNettuno / NET | ROT | 7.62 | 10.0 | 2 | +4.61 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR |
| #10 | PERES NUNES Ian AlekhandroTenerife / MAR | ROT | 7.33 | 10.0 | 2 | +4.71 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 6 RBI, 2 HR, 2 K |
| #11 | COLINA JoseDraci / DRA | REG | 7.05 | 9.06 | 2 | +2.98 | 1-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 1 BB |
| #12 | PRINS Scott Michael ThomasNettuno / NET | ROT | 7.05 | 7.05 | 1 | +1.95 | 4.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 57 pitches |
| #13 | GALVAN AREVALO Lesther AaronTenerife / MAR | ROT | 6.96 | 7.32 | 2 | +0.98 | 2-for-4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HBP, 1 K |
| #14 | BORGES BETHERMY Joel GabrielTenerife / MAR | ROT | 6.96 | 6.96 | 1 | +1.62 | 2-for-5, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 K |
| #15 | BARBONA LorenzoNettuno / NET | ROT | 6.95 | 4.58 | 2 | -0.46 | 1-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI |
| #16 | Do. RauwolfRegensburg / REG | REG | 6.91 | 6.55 | 2 | +0.54 | 1-for-5, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 2 K |
| #17 | PALLER RobTwins / TWI | REG | 6.89 | 6.59 | 2 | +0.47 | 1-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR, 2 K |
| #18 | RUBEN MarnixNeptunus / NEP | ROT | 6.89 | 7.60 | 2 | +2.26 | 3-for-4, 1 R, 0 RBI |
| #19 | ANGIOI GabrieleParma / PAR | REG | 6.86 | 7.07 | 2 | -0.20 | 2-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 K, 1 SB |
| #20 | Ph. LlewellynHeidenheim / HDH | ROT | 6.73 | 4.18 | 2 | -1.56 | 1-for-4, 0 R, 0 RBI, 2 K |
/ Pitch-depth ledger
Workload is now a tactical variable
Draci, Tenerife, Nettuno, and Regensburg all carry 329+ event pitches. Neptunus and Parma own the cleanest result-to-workload profiles entering Sunday.
Draci BrnoDRA / CEX369
event pitches
Day 2
176
Record
1-1
Heaviest event pitching bill; rebound win came with another 176-pitch day.
Tenerife MarlinsMAR / ESP336
event pitches
Day 2
140
Record
1-1
Tenerife restored offense, but 336 event pitches keeps prevention as the Sunday concern.
A.S.D. Nettuno B.C. 1945NET / Serie A335
event pitches
Day 2
174
Record
0-2
Eliminated from top-two model; 335 pitches and 25 runs allowed define the event tax.
Guggenberger LegionäreREG / DBL329
event pitches
Day 2
177
Record
0-2
Host has 329 pitches and no top-two equity; the benchmark signal outperformed the actual conversion.
Heidenheim HeideköpfeHDH / DBL307
event pitches
Day 2
136
Record
1-1
Shutout loss kept pitch volume reasonable, but the offense now carries the whole Sunday gate.
1949 Parma Baseball Club A.S.D.PAR / Serie A303
event pitches
Day 2
146
Record
2-0
control profile
Best control/workload blend in Regensburg: 2-0, +14, and only 303 event pitches.
Oosterhout TwinsTWI / HDK283
event pitches
Day 2
136
Record
1-1
Clean defensive ledger and manageable workload; qualification still requires a second upset-level conversion.
Curacao Neptunus RotterdamNEP / HDK241
event pitches
Day 2
109
Record
2-0
control profile
Best result/workload blend in Rotterdam: 2-0, +17, 241 event pitches, group control.
/ Federation-ready takeaways
The event has narrowed into a clean Sunday decision board
Five reads for Sunday
/01
First-place positions are effectively settled: Neptunus and Parma are priced at 100% first in the current simulation output.
/02
The two public hooks are direct qualification games: Tenerife-Heidenheim in Rotterdam and Draci-Oosterhout in Regensburg.
/03
European Unified gives the analysis institutional weight by translating domestic performance into one BCL context before event form is layered on top.
/04
PFI makes the player story comparable across groups: Sulbarán, Garcia Rodriguez, Jamanika, Batista, Ishikawa, and Bocchi are now the high-confidence event signals.
/05
The event has a high-run shape: 106 runs through eight games means Sunday should price offense, staff fatigue, and defensive conversion together.
/ Official box scores
The recap is anchored to WBSC Day 2 game payloads
Group Rotterdam G3: Tenerife at NettunoGroup Rotterdam G4: Heidenheim at NeptunusGroup Regensburg G3: Oosterhout at ParmaGroup Regensburg G4: Regensburg at Draci Brno
Source and model note
This recap uses official WBSC box scores, BCL Rotterdam and Regensburg Statbase pre-event forecasts, official game-level PFI, TPM/PFI/PVI team layers, domestic league benchmarks, and the European Unified benchmark translation. The probabilities are live table reads entering Sunday, not final tournament predictions.
Live tournament layer
Turn Day 2 context into a Sunday qualification board
The full Statbase platform adds the database behind reports like this: updated probabilities, PFI/PVI leaderboards, roster filters, private notes, and decision-grade exports.
106
event runs through Day 2
2
direct Sunday gates
NEP + PAR
current group-control teams
2,503
event pitches tracked